THE GERMAN RETREAT.

Taranaki Daily News, 12 April 1917, Page 7

THE GERMAN RETREAT.

WHAT HAS BEE.N GAINED

-Writes the military correspondent o| tha Lytteltoh Times:— It will be interesting to discover what theirretreat. Th^y ! abandoned their pothe Germans have gained in time by sitions south of Anas undoubtedly in anticipation of the Allied spring offensive. Possibly their High Command/ doubted whether;the divisions would face another Somme offensive. Possibly the plan is to gain time- and avoid losses in the west, while submarines are trying to starve Britain and while the main ! offensive is launched, presumably against j Russia. ~ But whatever the plan may j ono element in it is the gaining of k time,! just as another element undoubtedly is the economy of men and guns. How long it will take the Allies to bring all their machinery of offensive to front—build railways for the transport of supplies and munitions, repair the roads, accumulate stores and munition dumps. The question assumes, of course, that the Germans have, a series of prepared positions, and that if they give, battle, it will be under something like the old conditions. A very few days will prove whether the old conditions of trench warfare are to obtain or not in the new campaign, I but even if there is no return to the sta- ! tionary conditions it will still be necessary for the Allies to take their machinery with them as they advance, and therefore the Germans still gain materially in the matter of time. If they are strongly entrenches, the preparations for jthc launching of a groat offensive could scarcely be completed in less than six weeks, though the preliminary attack might well be opened within a fortnight. By holding on for six weeks in each position the Germans could delay their expulsion from France by about six months, for there are at least four possible defensive lines on which they could conveniently halt. Their two wings, however, would he subjected -tp intense successive attacks, and would therefore be bound to lose heavily, so that the retirement would be by no means inexpensive, though the main army could be withdrawn intact. Obviously a gain of six months would be of enormous value, particularly if, whilo they are avoiding disaster in the west, they can proceed with a big offensive in the east.

Hovpever, no military proposition j works put so simply as that in practice. The Germans have to take into consid- , cration that if they accept battle nov» I and endeavour to hold the Allies for I six weeks it will never again be so easy 1 for them td break off the battle. The Allied forces will be in motion and will be fully prepared to resume the advance, and.,next time the loss of contact will . be-br|e|. : ; The fighting will be heavier andTndre'eontinuous, and it is certain that.:'tb#!cp)Ksilng armies will not be . content tnfleave the initiative to the ' enemy.' .The 1 Germans are able to determine 1 4he'character of the immediate actiorty'bu't'-the Allies have the superiority in strength, and the enemy consequently can hardly be permitted to determine the character of the continuation. The situation is one that must have been anticipated by the Allied High Command, and therefore one cannot suppos.e that the retreat has materially affected the Allies' general plan of campaign.

As to the superiority of the Allies there cannot be any doubt. One's impressions of the British preparations, gathered from statements of people in authority, from the correspondents' despatches and from the, comments of newspapers and publicists gji-nerally, are liable to be a little confused, because in such a mass of published matter innumerable contradictions occur. But it is possible to disentangle some large facts.' There are said to be two million or more of British troops in France. Last year the offensive was opened up before the armies were fully equipped, though on the front of the offensive there were plenty of field guns and field howitzers and at no'time was ' there even an approach to a shortage of shells. This year.the artillery in all departments is said to be ample. This is the'only moaning one can take out of the icpeatcd assurances of Ministers Shelkmust be pouring into Fiance fast?r,evenjtha'n it can be handled. Sup- ! plies of "all kinds are abundant. Labor fof Wqfk Muriel the lines has been recruited in Africa and in the French coloI tries, so't'nit "there Should bo no qcca-

sion to employ soldiers on road and railway construction behind the line 3. These are the broad facts, no doubt, that have weighed with the enemy in his avoidance of battle, and one may take it that the Germans will accept battle in the future only when they believe the conditions to be temporarily in their favor. 'But if the position is correctly stated the Allies have so marked a preponderance of men and guns that it should be possible for them to impose their will on the enemy as soon as the weather is sufficiently settled, so that .there is justification at least for the hope that the enemy's- plans, whatever they may be, will fail.