The Daily News. MONDAY, JANUARY 8, 1917. WAR POSSIBILITIES AND PROBABILITIES.

Taranaki Daily News, 8 January 1917, Page 4

The Daily News. MONDAY, JANUARY 8, 1917. WAR POSSIBILITIES AND PROBABILITIES.

Germany not only wants a cessation of activities very intense])*, but she must have peace within twelve or fourteen months. A the same time we must not Bhut our eyes to the fact that the Germans still have at their command vast fighting forces, though the flower of her armies has withered away. The war has rightly been described as an artillery struggle in which the enemy had a vast superiority in the first instance, but has now been outdistanced in output by the Allies. Artillery will be the main factor of the operations on both sides till the last shell is fired, and though Germany still retains the power to manufacture munitions at a large and formidable rate, the Allies con and do produce a far larger supply. That fact should be remembered in connection with the conduct of the war when the forthcoming campaign is entered upon. It seems to be recognised in Berlin that the German reserve of man j.ower wilt not suffice to achieve final victory, but; if adequate food supplies arc available, defensive operations can be carried on for a considerable time. Putting aside all count of the possibility of Germany b' ing starved into submission, there appears to be good ground for assuming that the limit of German endurance may be placed at twelve months. What then may be Germany's plans during that period? There are rumors in plenty, and there are bound to be purposely false announcements intended to mislead and act as a veil to actual intentions. The blind faith which the German people place in von Hindenburg's genius and invincibility is a species of mania, but there is method in the madness that has an inspiring effect on the people. Already there are rumors as to Hindenburg's contemplated operations in the Western theatre. the objective being stated to be Calais. A little reflection on such a possibility will serve to dismiss it as a chimerical idea, useless and wasteful, while it could, even if successful, be only a minor operation which

would be exhaustive without being pie fitablc, but there is not the remotest chance of success in that direction. Hi? only chance would be to make a suipriso attack in great force, but as the Allies hold the supremacy of the air in France no surprise is possible, for the movements of liAge bodies of troops would be easily detected before they became dangerous, and it must not be forgotten that the British fleet would be able to bombard the enemy from the sea. The crucial question is whether Hindenbm'g will take the initiative in a Western attack so as to disorganise the Anglo-French plans, or will the Allies jump off the first. On the initiative much depends. Last spring the enemy got in first, but the venture proved a disastrous and costiv failure, and Hindenburg's only safe plan is to husband his resources and not decimate tliem. The British superiority in artillery in the Sommc offensive shouH convince the enemy of the altered conditions, especially as that superiority fci; c:ta .i'.owiiiit mater each month,

both in 111011 mid munitions, while the French must have been mak'ng corresponding progress. A "wur correspondent lias drawn attention to tlic fact that tile French are within twenty miles of the Rhine, but that docs not convev much insight as to possible movements. It is quite possible that the Allies might sec their way to make an early combined attack in the west and secure great tactical results of far-reaching consequence. A writer in a southern contemporary puts the position forcibly when lie states: ''livery nerve should he strained to get in first and seize the initiative. We do not wish to waste half the spring and summer again before acting, and it is of the utmost importance to pin down Ifindenburg and spoil his plans in the east, in the Balkans, and against Italy." This argument appears to be sound, and there is good ground for assuming that a concerted, simultaneous, and vigorous offensive by the Allies on all the fronts would materially hasten the end.