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THE REAL GERMANY.

CONDITIONS OF TO-DAY.

SPECIAL OBSERVER'S ACCODXT.

WO GROUNDS OF CONFIDENCE.

(Part II.)

Ihe twin bases of German confidence are belief in the invincibility of the German armies and the conviction that Germany has already obtained in the Ivast such guarantees ofM'uture security aft to be practically invulnerable.

As I have said, nothing short o. : grave military disaster will shake German trust in the army, in its chiefs, and in the Government. In Aliied countries it seems to be thought that the attack upon Verdun, which has cost such enormous sacrifices and has progressed so slowly, must have opened the eyes of the Germai. masses to the true position. As far as ray experience goes, this supposition is erroneous. The people were told, and it has constantly been repeated to them, that the German troops before Verdun have a difficult task in hand anil that it can only be ■performed gradually and methodically. They believe that Verdun will be taken in due course, and confidently await the day of triumph. Then, they think, the enemies of Germany will begin to realise and admit the completeness of German victory. It is much the same with the anger felt in Germany when compulsory military service was adopted in England. The Germans do not think that compulsion in England will rob tiiein of victory in the long run, but they are angry at such additional proof of British obstinacy in refusing to recognise that Germany is already triumphant. There is something to admire in the spirit of the German people. It is a real war spirit. The children are filled with it. Small boys of 10 not only form fours, drill and march in military style, but in every considerable village there is a boys' band which gives concerts two or three times a week. These bands play patriotic airs, and the local population flocks to hear them.

Whcr I left Geimany the. Russian offensive bad already but nothing was generally known of its success. The newspapers said little about it, and the official bulletins even indicated that it had already been checked. In any case "it. was only the Austrians." Every true German thinks the Austrian an inferior being, a bad fighter who only does well when, officered, organised and stiffened by Germans. The Russian troops would need to penetrate well into Hungary before any serious alarm would J)e felt in Germany.

It may he thought that the German people are living in a fool's paradise. That would certainly be the case were serious military defeat inflicted upon the German armies. But there is another element in German confidence which seems not to be properly understood in Allied countries.

PAN-GERMAN AMBITIONS.

During the last 10 or 13 years much has been .said in the European Press about pan-German ambitions and the extension of German political control ever the whole route from Hamburg to the Persian Gulf; but I" doubt whether any outsider really xuiderstood how deeply this idea (liad penetrated into the mind of the German people. Every well-informed and thoughtful German knew that what used to be called 'The Eastern Question" must be solved in favor of Germany, by war or otherwise, i The opening up of land and waterways fi om Germany to the East has been tiie practical object of German ambitions, which popular instincts have supported. Austria was egged on to .pick her quarrel with Serbia for no other reason. Bulgaria was induced to adhere to the German cause for the same purpose. When the British blockade began to be effective it became more than ever necessary for Germany to open the way to Constantinople and Bagdad, to subjugate the Balkans, and to secure such control over Me Straits and Turkey as to make of Asiatic Turkey not only a granary, but a source of supply for all important raw materials like cotton, wool, metals and petroleum. The Turko-German "commercial" agreement recently concluded provides, 1 understand, for the substitution of Turkish supplies of fruit for | those of Italy on the, markets of Germany.

The German people feel that with the crushing of Serbia, and the opening up of the route through Bulgaria to Constantinople and beyond, the lint and most essential portion of this great scheme has been realised; and they do not for a moment "believe that their mastery of the highway to the East can now be seriously challenged. Consequently they are confident that, as soon as the enemy shall 'have recognised iefcat and left Germany at the head of an immense Zollverein stretching from Antwerp to the Persian Gulf, no power on earth and 110 British blockade will ever be able to repeat a policy of "starving Germany out." The symbol of this gieat achievement is the "Balkanziig,'' the Balkan Express, which runs twice a week from Antwerp to Constantinople. This German train has now replaced—the Germans believe foi ever—the former International Orient Express. It is not that the Germans have given up the. idea of challenging British naval supremacy or of obtaining "the freedom of the. seas" for German seaborne trade. The disputes between the partisans of "Central Europe" and those of "worldtrade" have, in reality, little importance. The two aims are complementary to each other. The Germans mean to secure both. But, for the moment, it is the "Central European" and eastward tendency that predominates because the only field whit*, for the moment, lies open to German enterprise is to be found in the East.

FAR-REACHING CANAL SCHEMES. Is it any wonder that having secured, as they believe, t'he highway to the East, and, with it, the po'ver to throttle Russia on the Bosphorus at their pleasure, the Germans should be confident? The be«t proof of their confidence lies in I In- efforts they are now making to i . ise, develop and extend their in- . waterways so as to make it possible for vessels of 1-000 tons to pass from Antwerp, Hamburg. Bremen or any. other port on any large German river or canal to the Black Sea by way of the Danube. This "Danube question"' is today tho foremost question in Germany. ■Preparations are being made to link up by a system of canals not only the Rhine, Danube and Elbe, but the ever important German waterway. In the past this ''canal scheme'' has been, chielly Bavarian. Now it Ijaa become national and imperial. The King qf Bavaria lias long been its most powerful advocate. The Bavarian Canal Asoeiation, founded 21 years ago, has pilways enjoyed his Ijrotection and suDpoijt. He recently. »t-

tended the general meeting of the association at Kelheim and delivered a speech of great importance, in which lie briefly expressed public feeling as I have described it, and urged the absolute necessity of linking up the Rhine, Danube and lilbe. creating a huge united "economic territory" based upon "a constantly increasing and more fruitful levelopment of the old and new relationships between Germany and her Allies." Meetings like this 'have been held during tin; 'lust two or three months in all the chief Herman towns, among others at Dusseldorf, Hamburg, Dicsden, Berlin, Munich and Raitisbon (RegciWburg). There is hardly an important centre in which some general assembly has not been organised with the object of forming local executives enlisting a technical staff, and raising funds. The enterprise lias become Imperial instead of being Bavarian—a development which implies a delicate compliment to the King of Bavaria and insensibly tightens the ties which bind Bavaria to t'lie Empire. Whereas Bavaria has recently shewn a desiro to maintain her separate individuality in the Empire by rejecting the proposals for an 1 Imperial postage scheme, this Danube and tanal enterprise is being used to bind her more tightly than ever to the Empire. One of the objects of the "Danube scheme" is to secure for Germany the control of both banks of the Danube from source to mouth. Throughout Austria and Hungary and along the Scrbo-Bulgarian shore the control is assured. It is hoped to bring Romnania into the scheme by persuasion or force, and to compensate her by securing for her possession of the 'Russian shore of the Lower Danube. Thus German control of the whole wate.-way would be complete, pnd would, together with the control of the railway route, link Germany indissolubly with the East.

THE SALONIKA MENACE.

This, then, is the second basis of German confidence. Together with the belief in military invincibility, it supports the faith of the German ■people ill complete victory. How can this basis be overthrown? Only by cutting across and interrupting German communications with the East. Were Bulgaria to be defeated, either by the Allies alone or with the help of Roumania, German confidence would receive a fatal shock. The presence of an Allied force in Salonika lias been a thorn iu the German side, because of the potential menace it has constituted to the safety of the land and water routes to the East. Should that menace become real the greatest alarm would be felt. The cutting of those routes and the re-establishment of Serbia would bring about the ruin of German hopes and the collapse of German confidence nor, less surely than the winning of military victories over Ger- : man armies on the Western and the Russian fronts.

Permanent link to this item
Hononga pūmau ki tēnei tūemi

https://paperspast.natlib.govt.nz/newspapers/TDN19160914.2.37

Bibliographic details
Ngā taipitopito pukapuka

Taranaki Daily News, 14 September 1916, Page 6

Word count
Tapeke kupu
1,548

THE REAL GERMANY. Taranaki Daily News, 14 September 1916, Page 6

THE REAL GERMANY. Taranaki Daily News, 14 September 1916, Page 6

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