The Daily News. THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 7, 1916. HOW LONG?

Taranaki Daily News, 7 September 1916, Page 4

The Daily News. THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 7, 1916. HOW LONG?

There is probably no question that is so universally discussed at the present time as the prospects of the war situation, particularly with regard to the length of time that must elapse before the war is brought to a close. Naturally, considerable difference of opinion exists, partly for temperamental reasons, but mainly on account of the ability or otherwise to give due weight to the operative factors bearing directly on the struggle. The eager optimists already see the end at hand; the sober optimists recognise that there will be much bitter fighting before Germany is crushed; and the pessimists bemoan the possibility of finality ever being reached. All, however, are impressed with the fact that it is quite futile to expect a miracle will happen, and that whether the war lasts for one, two, or more years, there must be no slackening of effort, no falling off in constant and assiduous preparedness, no hopes entertained of enemy exhaustion. At the same time there is no longer the slightest whisper of a doubt as to the outcome of the struggle in favor of the Allies. There are not wanting indications that even the Germans are slowly but surely recognising that they have undertaken a 'bigger row than they ean hoe, but as their very existence as a military power—the greatest _ in the world—is at stake, they may -be expected to fight to the bitter end with a desperation that must be reckoned with. Although the glory of their boasted invincibility has departed, the reputation of their great military strategists so woefully diminished that on 'Hindenburg alone rests the hope of salvation, yet there is still a formidable task for the Entente Powers to carry out before peace once more reigns supreme. What then are the reasonable prospects of an early or prolonged settlement of this mighty armed struggle? In a most interesting and logical review of the twoyear war period, written last July, Mr. J. L. Garvin, one of the ablest publicists of the day, and whose articles on the Balkan war were specially noteworthy, gave an outline of the trend of thought at Home as to the probable length of the struggle, and the factors having an important hearing thereon. It is, he said, absolutely assumed by all the Allied nations that they are much more than half-way through their task, that less than twelve months, indeed, will bring them to the achievement of their -purposes. While scouting the idea that the struggle would he over in three or four months, he admits that it is not altogether in the region of the unthinkable that the war should come to a sudden close by December with the complete victory of the Allies. It is interesting to carefully note Mr. Garvin's forecast of possibilities, many of which have materialised since his review was penned. ■He advances the theory that Austria may collapse, with consequences involving the total overthrow of the Turks and the deadly jeopardy of Germany. Today the theory would appear to be approaching actuality, for Austria is strained to the point of exhaustion, and the pressure is increasing every day; her dream of conquest is gone for ever. Touching upon the question of Koumania's entry into the contest (an event that has since happened), Mr. Garvin said: But one new factor may transform the whole question, and that is the intervention of Rouinania. If that occurs by the middle of autumn Austria will be attacked from the south-east by a million men, including General Sarrail's force, the new Russian contingents and the Roumanian army. That stroke would he fatal,, we think, to the whole Central League. The Magyars would try

tn make a separate peace. Greece wonlil juin tin; Allies, there would be an overturn in Bulgaria, anil t!ie situation in Turkey would be quite hopeless," Already the forecast is materialising, though as yet it is not fully realised. Amongst other likelv happenings are the occupation of Constantinople by the All'es, tlie free navigation of the Dardanelles, the restoration of Serbia, the cutting off of Germany from the Danubiau granaries and stock runs, and a genera! peace might be reached, at the expense of Austria, just about Christmas. It may be that this expectation is unduly optimistic, and it is safer to anticipate the war lasting for three years, preparations for that eventuality being continued on a vast scale. It is not expected that the enemy's reserves will last for more than six months. Moreover, it is considered that the Central Empires will be too weak to bold their lines in the next campaign, nnd that their fronts will be stove in like the sides of a ship crushed by an icepack. The fighting on the Sonime shows that the Anglo-French have the mastery over the Boscbes, and can win their way to Berlin if needful, but the Eastern factor will doubly assure the end, and probably accelerate it. Finally, says Mr. Garvin, we are inclined to expect that ,the crash of the German lines in the West, by the early summer of 1917, will be the last and greatest episode in the drama of the war. These are not mere rash opinions, but worthy of serious attention.