THE GERMAN LINE.

Taranaki Daily News, 26 May 1916, Page 3

THE GERMAN LINE.

CAN BE BROKEN. | THE HEAVY COST. Wellington, May 3. An optimistic letter from the fighting line in Flanders has reached Captain Donald Simson, New Zealand Engineers, who allows me to quote a good deal of it. The writer, an officer in high command, believes that when the Allies are ready they can break through the Hun lines and push their way to a victorious end, though it may mean the loss of a hundred thousand men. "The farther one is away from the fighting line," writes the officer, ''the more pessimistic tiie view one is apt to take. At the front j;ou find no despondency or pessimism. There is no sickness, and everyone laughs at trouble and diflieuH/ies. The only fear ono ever hears expressed is that politicians will patch up a peace before we have given the Hermans a proper licking. "Our feeling out there is that the war, from our point of view, lias hardly begun yet. Up to now we have been struggling to hold out while Germany was at the height of her power. From now onwards conditions will change. We have plenty of men —if the Government will only enlist them! Our munitions are .just coming into full play, and for the first time we can give the Germans back not only shell for shell, but two or three to his one. Germany, on the other hand, can never be stronger. From now onwards she mist weaken in men, in resources- and in moral. That is a fact, and there is no getting over it. Take one example only. We have now called up certain groups of men of ages between nineteen and twenty-three; Germany is now calling up her'liUT class, and all men of (I think) forty-five to forty-eight and all men hitherto rejected as unfit. She ha 3 made great territorial acquisitions in the last year, but they have brought her little material advantage, as, excepting in the case of Serbia, she has failed to defeat armies, and her successes have cost her heavily in men. Without decisive victories, she must in the long run weaken, not only in men but in material, economically and financially: it is only a matter of time. If Great Britain from the beginning had put out her whole strength and organised not only armies but labor, the situation now would be different. "As to Germany's efforts in the East, we out hero do not look on them as very serious. The eastern and western fronts in northern Europe remain the decisive points where the issue of (he war will be decided. The more we disseminate our forces the better we are playing Germany's game. She is in ipterior lines, and lias the advantages of that condition. So long as we pan bring preponderance of forces against her in the two main theatres we shall win; the other theatres are comparatively side-shows. But though it is the fact that sooner or ,later Germany will, from scarcity of men, have to shorten her front under pressure, the cost of pushing her back will be very heavy. Her lines are fortified witii immense strength; she will defend them with every scientific device imaginable. The only possible way to break through it to fight and reduce the German strength by killing her troops. But to do this we require unlimited men, waves and waves of them. Jn a modern battle which extends over three or four weeks, we will lose anything up to, say, 100,600 men. There must be another 100,000 ready to take their place, so that the pressure may go on and on. Hitherto both with ourselves and the French, we have not, had either "enough men, oi enough munitions, or enough of both combined, to continue the struggle long .-nougli.. Two or three times we have nearly broken through, but just as the Germans were at their last resources our effort had to stop. We believe, that when once we begin to push the Germans back, and can continue the pressure, she will soon crack up. The Germans are not stickers, and if once they are pushed back into their own country the end will soon come. This can be done provided there are sufficient men and' munitions. Failing that, it must be a war of attrition, and that will take a long time.

"NO REAL CHANCE YET." "Generals are being freely named for mistakes, and want of 'push.' Mistakes there must be, but I don't think there has been a chance of really breaking through the Germans yet; we have not had sufficient men or munitions. Peeple hardly appreciate the power of the defence when there are fortified positions with unlimited artillery behind them, not to mention machine guns, lismbs, gas, fire and acres of barbed wire. Unless there are masses ef men to replace casualties, a successful attack is impossible. So much for difficulties. The general situation is that we are growing stronger. Our 'morale' is excellent; so is the Germans; but ours will continue good, theirs will not. Their ehanee of success lay in rapidity, ar.d in their preparedness. They failed; now that we are better prepared every day that passes, hew can they succeed ? ?

VERDUN FORECASTED. "As to the future, we have a great deal »f German preparation? for a big offensive on the western front. It may come off, but J do not think it will be in the immediate future. It has been too much advertised to be real. But Ido think it will come later. They will try and anticipate us—and to strike before we are prepared for our effort. I hardly think the state of the ground will tempt them to do much before Jfarch, at any rate in this particular part (Flanders). They may try it elsewhere in the west, but I 'doubt their beginning until they can do it on a big scale. They are" counting much on their gas. That is not likely to be the success they anticipate. It is ticklish stufl to handle; it requires particular winds and particular configuration of ground. It may give local successes. I don't think that with our present appliances and our experience it will lead to any 'great results.' Attack, as already explained, is expensive. If the Germans attack, they will suffer enormous losses. We should bo able to outlast them, and with any luck we should score heavily. We may have reserves, but no one has any dsubt that we shall be able to keep them from breaking us up, as we have done before, and then it will be our turn.

THE ELEMENTS OF VICTORY. "I think tliis represents pretty accurately the feelings of everyone out hiire. I have never heard anyone whose opinion is worth havins who has not the most complete confidence in beating the Germans. How soon depends be misled by all the German talk and on men and munitions. One lruist nobe misled by all the German talk and plans as purveyed for us by newspapers. Bluff is their great weapon. They talk big toJmgreafl neutrals, and to terrify

their enemy;' .o;ie does not under-rate them; they are much too well organised and too good soldiers for that. But on the other hand, there i,s not the slightest need to be afraid of them, provided vre are not put off by reverses if such come, we shall pull through all right. But it may take a long time yet, and for that we have only ourselves to thank. "I. believe myself that if we introduced compulsory service now the announcement would have such a moral effect on our Allies and oil the Germans that the war would finish within twelve months. But 1 doubt the Government having the pluck, though the •country as a whole would shout with joy! This is very discursive, but it may interest you as being wiiat is generally thought out here."