The Daily News. SATURDAY, MAY 6, 1916. GERMANY'S MAXIMUM STRENGTH.

Taranaki Daily News, 6 May 1916, Page 4

The Daily News. SATURDAY, MAY 6, 1916. GERMANY'S MAXIMUM STRENGTH.

As there are no means of ascertaining the exact strength of Germany's field forces it is necessary to resort to estimates that are based upon reasonable computations. A recent cable message stated that the French intelligence department had located the lllt'n German Army Corps at Verdun, the deduction therefrom being that there were 4,440,000 Germans in the field, but it is as well to exercise caution in accepting conclusions of this nature without examining into collateral circumstance's. A German army corps consists sometimes of two and sometimes of three divisions. The strength of a two-division army corps would be 30,000, and that of a three-division corps 43,000. But there is good reason to believe that all the German army corps were raised to three dfvisions after the opening of the war, and the assumption of an average strength of 40,000 men is quite generous, since army corps are usually much below their full strength during war. It is very hazardous to base calculations on the numbers of particular corps, however, as we have no guarantee that they are numbered honestly. Assuming the inference drawn to be sound, some interesting reflections suggest themselves. Eight millions is the figure which we may safely take to represent about the number of men that Germany can put into the field. If her permanent losse3 amount to '2,000,000 she would have reserves left amounting to 1,000,000 with which to feed her field armies. Hut it must be remembered that there is a large body of sick and wounded, numbering some hundreds of thousands, known as the "permanent margin of temporary losses," which is renewed from the various fronts as fast as its members recover, and it has also to be borne in mind that some of the German carps may only be in skeleton, while others exist only on paper; some may consist of broken formations, and many are certain to be under strength. The German force actually in the field has been generally reckoned at about 3,000,000 (Colonel Repington places it at 3,BOO,000), with auxiliary forces amounting to perhaps another million; so the above figures are not very improbable. If the above figures are anyway near the mark, and assuming that the war wastage of the ensuing summer and autumn campaign reaches only 200,000 a month, the margin represents four months' supply of men. The basis of all calculations as to the German forces must rest upon the estimate of her total resources in men, and this varies from eight to nine millions. It is also necessary, in order to arrive at, an approximate conclusion as to the duration of the war, to estimate the total losses inflicted on Germany, and here again the figures vafry considerably. According to the Times' military correspondent Germany's losses to the end of January amounted to 2,700,000, while Mr. Eelloc considers that 3,250,000 is nearer the mark: If it is assumed that the losses amount to 3,000,000, Germany must have brought about 7,500,000 men into active service, and this would only give an available residue of men to fill up the gaps resulting from the ensuing campaigns—not sufficient for three months of such fighting as is likely to take place. Even taking the higher figures there would only be sufficient for eight months. This conclusion doeß not by any means imply that Germany will be defeated in eight months, but it points to the certainty that she will have to contract her lines or abandon the offensive. In the light of these explanations it is not difficult to account for Germany's desperate effort to strike a decisive blow at Verdun, which was proclaimed as the last offensive to be made against France. This reckless sacrifice of German lives was to be the final throw of the dice, and the Kaiser lost. Now there are rumors of a similar ferocious assault the Russians, but ti.ey are discounted by the knowledge that such a campaign would only end in another disaster of great magnitude. Meanwhile the blockade is daily tightening, and Germany is feeling its growing pressure, but there is every reason to believe that she will continue her

ferocious campaign of terror on land, on 'sea and in the air. It la for the Alliw

to put forth the full strength of their resources at the opportune moment and break the back of the war, but the final chapter may not bo reached for many months yet.