The Daily News. WEDNESDAY, APRIL 5, 1916. GERMANY'S HOPELESS POSITION.

Taranaki Daily News, 6 April 1916, Page 4

The Daily News. WEDNESDAY, APRIL 5, 1916. GERMANY'S HOPELESS POSITION.

Xeutral observers who have watched the proceedings on various fronts generally come to the conclusion that Germany's position, in view of the forces arrayed against her, is hopeless. Amongst them is Mr. Frederick Palmer, the American correspondent, whose striking and lucid articles have placed him in the forefront of the historians of the present war. Here are a few of the points he makes in a notable article contributed to Collier's:—"Germany must be winning," says the wise neutral, thinking of the hordes of prisoners Germany lias taken, and with his dispassionate eye on the map. But in this war the map is the greatest liar in the world. For Germany is not winning. The map is a liar unless it covers the whole world and includes the seas and continents. England came in—and Germany knew that she had lost. But she could not stop her legions; she must g» on making the best of a 'bad bargain. Bear in mind, victorious Germany, ever since August 4, has been fighting for counters with which to gain peace, and hopefully a- peace that will leave her strong enough to step between France and Russia against her old enemy, England, at some future time. Germany realises that with guns and men enough the western line can be broken. And she realises that if the Russians come •in with their new forces in the spring she may not he able to resist an attack in the west. When the Germans ask for peace they serve notice on the Allies that they are exhausted. Tke Allies will answer: "We are going to let you stew for another year." Is Germany winning with probably 1,500,000 men dead or crippled for life? Is she winning when she does not know how she is going to,' force peace ? Can she win if she cannot continue her offensive when spring comes? Can she win if she must accept the defensive? Consider this war of about 20 rounds, Germany trying for a knock-out in the first five. Having failed, many thought her offensive, was over. But it was not. Sh« was still taking the initiative in the tenth round. The winter brings us past the tenth round, and the spring will show us the fifteenth. It will he the nineteenth round, perhaps the twentieth round itself, that will tell. England's new munition factories have only begun to supply 6hells. The maximum American and/Japanese output will not be reached until February or March. With spring, the Allies, for the firat time, will have a real superiority in guns and material and men on the fighting line. Germany probably still has 4,000,000 fighting men and Austria 3,000,000. France must have close to 4,000,000, England more than 3,000,000, and Russia 3,000,000, not counting her uaorganised reserve. Thus the Allies will have a superiority equivalent to the British New Army. If Germany is going to continue her offensive, where can she strike? Can she undertake another offensive against Russia when in May the French cover ! nil the front-line trenches in the west with shells and undertake an offensive with five times the artillery power of Champagne and Loos? To win, Germany must beat the immense new British Army. She must beat the 1917 class of recruits which in November France had not yet called to the colors. She must win in some kind of a decisive victory at arms—or lose; must succeed in wearing down the Allies' resources and men by attrition instead of the Allies wearing down hers. Suppose that all next spring, and summer Germany throws herself against those lines of steel in vain. Suppose that a line of steel is across her path in the Balkans as well as in Flanders and in Russia; for if she extends her lines in Servia ami Bulgaria, she needs correspondingly more men to keep them intact. Suppose that, instead of being able to take the offensive, she uses her magnificent railroad system for rushing bodies of troops here and there in order to halt the offensive of the Allies—what will be the effect then upon German sentiment? What would have been the effect on Japanese sentiment if the Russians had held out for another year and let the Japanese stew in front of their army? When Lord Kitchener told the Ministers of the British Cabinet that the war would be long they were sceptical. But now they know that he knew what he was talking about. He counted upon 'winning the last battle. That is the battle that England has always had to win, and usually has won. You may be sure the amazing brain trust which governs Germany, which knows how to inflame the emotions of its own people to its purpose, which unites great military leading with very skilful statecraft, is never going to give the world a sign that she is losing. The one chance that Germany lias of winning is the chance that gave Japan victory. Though beaten, she may keep her secrets so close, conceal her wounds s o well, that she will give the appearance of victory and deceive her enemies into compromise. But if the Allies keep on for another eighteen months, and if they hold together, there is no doubt that Germany will be beaten. And if their money lasts! Watch and see if it doesn't. The Allied troops may never mat. *« BogUsr *l>»V mftV ttGVM OTOSS the,

Rhine; none of them may again enter Kast Prussia. But it will be Germany that will 'have to sue for terms because she is in a state of siege. Germany's position the correspondent likens to the position of a man who strikes for want of air, for want of room. He lunges this way and that witli the craving for breath for his lungs and space for his limbs. He pushe 8 the. wall back a, little, but it is still there, dashing his own blood back in "his face. He "breaks through one door, but there is anothel beyond. The mental strain of such a battle is as severe as the physical. "In the summer, if Russia comes back strong, and Turkey and Bulgaria art tamed, the walls will begin to fall in. on the Germans." ,