WAR NEWS BY MAIL.

Taranaki Daily News, 17 March 1916, Page 5

WAR NEWS BY MAIL.

GERMANS' LAST CARD. "ATTEMPTED INVASION OP - BRITAIN." Discussing the German movements'in Aorthern France and Flanders and the talk of a new offensive by the enemy in the West, Sir. Gerald Fronnes, the naval coi respondent of the Observer, savs the opinion has frequently been put forward that when the enemy begins to fee) the pinch of exhaustion he wilt play his last card with tremendous vigor, and that his last card will bo an attempted invasion of this country. He has threatened loudly that he intends to march victoriously on Egypt and Bagdad; he lias accomplished the destruction of Serbia for tho time being, but he shows little sign of preparing his great ulterior schemes in the East, and will perhaps leave matters there to the lurks and Bulgars. In the meantime we and the French have concentrated large land forces in the Mediterranean, a process which has necessarily involved a corresponding concentration of sea forces.

Is it not on the cards that the enemy is preparing to play his last card? To follow this line of argument further would lead me beyond my province. The question is, if this conjecture be sound, what is lie likely to do to overcome the superior sea power with which we confront him?

TWO COURSES OPEN", Setting rside the hypothesis that .he regards the possession of Calais as a condition precedent to a successful attempt, tiier© seem to be two courses open to him. He may use the Belgian ports, Antwerp and Zeebrugge, though the use of the former would involve a violation of Dutch neutrality, or he may suddenly move the forces now collecting in Belgium northward of Hamburg and Einden and launch his expedition from there, jf the former course were adopted his attempt would be made in a sphere which is further removed frem the area watched by the Grand Fleet, but the crossing would have to be accomplished in craft of the nature of the flat-bottomed boats he is reported to possess, which would, presumably, be brought round inland by canal. These may, perhaps, be immune to submarine attacks, and, given the long nights and a period of settled calm, he Might get his best chance—ft sorry one—in that way. At the dame time, no d«ubt, the High Sea Fleet would issue. ANOTHER EXPLANATION. There is, however, another possible explanation of the new German concentration which I would like to suggest. It is possible that the. German General Staff is contemplating another attack upon a neutral State. I mean something more than a mere passage of the Scheldt, and, indeed, look to another victim rather than to Holland. The advantage to Germany of the possession of Denmark, and the small addition to the power of her foes whick war on that little kingdom would entail, make it somewhat curious that our unscrupulous enemy has so long refrained fram hostile movement against the Danes.

At the present time, when German command of the Baltic is menaced by the action of British submarines, and German defence against them is hampered by the position of the Danes in control of the Belts and en# shere of the Sound, it would seem that an immense advantage wight be enjoyed by the enemy if he could over-run Denmark aa lie has over-run Belgium, and thus make the Baltic almost completely mare clausum. Besides, there is' the butter. What would not the matrons of the Fatherland give for the monopoly of the products of Hasley and Esbjerg? Seriously, the use of the food respurces of Denmark would be of considerable advantage to the Germans, and critics of the Anglo-Danish agreement ought to keep this fact in view. Denmark's position is the most dangerous in Europe, and she is quite unable to defend herself? Can we defend her if she is attacked? It not, we ought to be extremely careful how we add to the jeopardy of the gallant little people who are our friends through and through. If, by threats or by hostile action, Germany should succeed in getting control of Denmark, she would, among other tilings, put us to the necessity of seizing and holding Iceland and the Faroe Islands, both places which might be a considerable annoyance to us, if nothing worse, should they come into the enemy's hands. Other reasons might be assigned for suspecting the intention of towards Denmark. But these will suffice. It is a contingency which certainly ought not to be left out of sight.

MAN POWER TO WIN THE WAR. FATAL SHRINKAGE OF GERMAN FORCES. "BURiST OF GLORY NOW THE LAST GREAT BLUFF." London, January 12. ''Germany is already beaten. The war will be ended by next autumn by the withdrawal of the German armies from the conquered lands." This is the opinion of Mr. John Reed, the special correspondent of the New York World, who has just returned home after a year spent in visiting all the belligerent countries except Austria. Mr. Reed says it is a question of ships, men, and money —and the greatest of these is meu. The war will be won on land and won with the preponderance of fighting men. There is not a doubt that the Allies will be able to dominate in sheer numbers.

There was never a possibility of Germany winning unless she managed to smash one of the three great AlliesFrance, Kussia, or England. Any one of these three out of the way and she could easily have triumphed. Italy would have been vital only if she had thrown her lot with the Central Powers and hung like a snapping dog on the flanks of Fruncc.

The fact that the Allies had the financial advantage made little difference in the actual lighting. "A bankrupt country,'' says Mr. Reed, "can go right on —the South did it in the Civil War, and Napoleon also. And while it is generally known that the Allies can get all the food, clothing, and ammunition they need —through the holding of the seas —there is a huge misconception in the public mind about Germany's resources in these matters. Just because copper, telephone wires, and copper kettles and copper pennies were requisitioned, it doesn't mean that Germany's #up.jiUtt si Mt HiSill to -

CONDITIONS IN GERMANY. ' "The shortage pinched, no doubt, bul when I was in Berlin I witnessed, thef arrival of some millions of bars from America which had been shipped: to Savona, Italy (this was whilst Italy waq neutral), and transported north in cart-i loads of 'dried vegetables.' That coppep 'paraded in carts down the Unter den 'Linden behind a military band, and;tho Americans in charge made a night df it in the Adlon bar." The issue of bread tickets and tjtfes of bread riots gave an entirely wrong idea of conditions in Germany. AU'thft conquered lands wer# under the ploMgH and tlie sowers, the railway embankments were growing vegetables, swajnps had been filled up to make gardens, end the Bulgarian and Rumanian grain crops were bought by Germany. "Germany," adds Mr. Reed, "can feed herself > for seven years with a normal increase of population. She must economise forth<3 time between harvests, that is all."; It might be insisted that, since it 'ls a question of mere numbers, the Germans would take the defensive as soon at they were pressed, and that the con of attacking Germany would more than offset the numerical superiority of<tha Allies. But defensive warfare 'had changed. In the first six months ofth» war the proportion of casualties in- the attacking force was about 70 per oent. to 30 per cent, ia the defending ra&ks. This was now modified on account of trench mortars and other new factors, so that 55 per cent, on the attackingiid* were lost te 45 per cent, on the defensive. ' "• "I think it will be generally admit: ted that the first great German army which poured down over Belgium and France like a grey avalanche Is gwte. The best the Germans can muster in fighting men is some eight and that includes many incapables. fli.a official German lists of dead, dißalded, and prisoners total almost four miltl&M. Grant that the Allies have lost aa many men as the Central Powers; stiU BfiwjA and England have untouched resources, 1 ' The Central Powers' losses in th« jlrivi, against Russia were 20 per cent, pes*' manent losses of 2,500,000 xneo, BLOW AT BRITISH EMMBE. The irive into Serbia and the entry into Conßtantiatple was a blow at; tli* British Empirp, with the project of an expedition against Egypt and the{fyc* Caifal or against India by way of Bag* dad or both. "But," asks Mf. See4 # "where could Germany find the men to hold open the line from Hungary to Constantinople, keep a strong hold oyer European Turkey, an& advance to pag« i dad or to Egypt." [ "Where could Germany get thwe mll- ; lions of men? She cannot Withdraw ; troops fro* the Western front, whcr.i i every month sees the French and English grow in strength, organisation, and power. She cannot take them from the Eastern front, "where the rallying Russians are already making her reel Even ' the Italian front is keeping buay a 1 steadily greater army all thfc time. So, 1 in order to beat Engll'nd, France, and : Russia, Germany must c6nquer the > w«rld, which it cannot do. '

"The burst of glory now taking place is Germany's last great bluff. Boon eke will not have the men to maka great smashing drives. Perhaps even now she won't be able to finish what she has begun. And when the moment comes that she must withdraw slowly from the conquered lands and make her shrinking battle line smaller, then, I think, the German common sense will face candidly the knowledge that a lasttrench defence is useless and that St is the end—not the begianiag of the a|4/<

WAR WILL NOT END IN CAW, .. .A fci <. ■ SAYS LLOYD GEORGE, ( '. - WHEN VICTORY COMES IT iwTLL ■IE A SMASUNG ONE. Loiiui, Jaauaiy 29. "I thiak that far us the war only beginning," said David Lloyd George, in an interview with the London correspondent of the Milan Secolo, "but I am absolutely confident of Victory, because, although we all have made mistakes in the past, England and her allies are now taking counsel together ,ind will be stronger because ther are united. By next spring we shall have for the first time more munitions th&n the enemy, and our superiority in men is unquestioned. Besides this, Germany's financial positien is growing worse daily."

The Minister of Munitions admitted that the Entente Allies were all unprepared and had to organise armies. .England, ho said, had to create on«. Asked if he thought the war would end in a deadlock, the Minister said thjit such a thing must not be thought of lor a moment.

"It may take a long time," lie Mil, "but we. must crack the nut before wv get the kernel. Wearing down t)ie outside by attrition is too long and' would not be a smashing, pulverising victory. Pressure on the enemy is becomiu. 1 greater. They are spreading their frontiers temporarily, but are becoming weaker in a military sense, and tlio procest.o strangulation will squeeze then: niore as ■ more." "We woke up slowly to it," <*> Munitions Minister, "but I am lieu

fectly satisfied with what we are We have now 2500 factories, employing 1,509,000 men and 250,000 women. 11 y spring we shall have turm-d out; an immeiise amount of munitions. We lu\o 3,000,000 men under arms; by spring shall have 1,000,000 mole. "Make no mistake about it. : Great Britain is determined to light this Vtt to a finish. It was the obstinacy of Kngland that wore down Napoleon it tie:' twenty years ol' warfare. Her allies broke away one by one, but' Great Britain kept on. Our allies ou this occasion are just as set ami determined 5? we are."