The Daily News. SATURDAY, FEBRUARY 20, 1916. ESTIMATING THE ODDS.

Taranaki Daily News, 26 February 1916, Page 4

The Daily News. SATURDAY, FEBRUARY 20, 1916. ESTIMATING THE ODDS.

In calculating the prospects of victory it is necessary to take into account the numbers of the opposing armies, although that by 110 means is the last word on the subject. At the same time a survey of the relative strength of the Allies and of the Central Powers gives an indication a 9 to what forces are available, and the fortunes of war will do the rest. It has been apparent that while the forces of the enemy have passed their period of highest strength and efficiency, those of the Allies have not yet reached the top of the tide and are gaining strength week by week. In his recent review of the position of the opposing forces as regards numbers, Col. Repingtoi> (the London Times' military correspondent) arrived at the conclusion that the strength of the Allies in the field was not enough for securing a decisive victory. As a matter of fact very little importance is attached to this critic's statements and figures, which are invariably unfavorable to the Allies, hut it may be that they carry weight with a certain section of the public merely because they emanate from the London Times. It is therefore advisable to carefully examine statements coming from that source in order to tost their accuracy. How necessary that course is in regard to the strength of the combatants will be shewn. Colonel Repington estimates the total enemy forces at 6,350,000, made up as follows: —Germans ",000,000, Austrians 1,750,000, Turks and Bulgarians 1,000,000. This estimate was, of course, prior to the Turkish defeat at Erzerum, arid therefore is now on the high side. He places the German reserves at two millions, thus giving nine men in the field for every five men in the reserve—an allowance so extraordinary that it cannot be accepted as a fact. The Austrians are credited with a million and a quarter of reserves, and it is extremely probable that in this case also the computation is at fault. In all cases of comparison between the numbers of the opposing forces there is more or less guessing—probably the computers would call it having recourse to scientific inference, which is the nearest approach to ! fact—but the results of these arithmetical feats depends largely on whether the operator is an optimist or a pessimistCol. Repington being included in the latter class. A writer in the Dunedin Stir thin puts the position with some force: "The British forces in the field are heing steadily increased, and we will assume that by the spring the forces in France will amount to 1.500.000 and in all theatres to 2.000,000. Taking colonial and Tndian troops into consideration, that is quite a moderate anticipation, and it would leave us with reserves equalling those in the field, as n«nin«t five German reserves for every nine in the field. Of France it is more difficult to speak. since we know nothing of the extent of her losses, but she can lie trusted to put forth her full strength: and if we assume that she puts 2.000,000 in the field in all theatres, her reserves will probably he at least as larjje in proportion as those of Germany. "Russia may be safely credited with 4 OOO.OOfI if we accept the figure of S.fiOO.OOfl for Germany, and her reserves are limitless, Colonel Eepington admits that she has as many trained reserves available as Germanv as soon as the rifles are ready. We will assume for Italy only 1,000.000 in the field, which is about a third of her total forces. We thus get the following figures:— Russia .. 4,000.009 Britain .. 2.000,009 France .. ... 2,000,000 Italy v. 1,000,009 Total .. 9,000,0®

This figure, matched against the 0,359,696 or tile enemy, gives us a superiority of nearly 50 per cent, in the field, and a still greater superiority in reserves. If that is not sufficient for decisive victory, Colonel TiepingtOH is hard to satisfy. No assumption has been made for the Allies which" is not perfectly justified, ainc-e arms and equipment are pouring in now, anil every month the flood grows greater. Ot course, if Italy cannot be persuaded to deploy her forces, the situation will be modified: but the above figures are merely to show that we have the wisiiing hand if It is properly played." Apart from the confidence which is felt throughout the "British Empire in the achievement of victory, it is only necessary to note the marvellous change that has taken place in German opinion. Take, for instance, Maximilian Harden—one of the chief German firebrands. here;u lie gloried in the war in its i':H']y stupes and prophesied the complete ■viccess ot Germany's world domination venture, he now admit? that Germany has no hope of ultimate success, and he i» terribly afraid that a three years' blockade will expel German trade from the markets of the world. He may rest assured that long before three years Germany will be a back number, her trade, her prestige, and her power for evil so effectively dealt with that not perhaps for centuries can she hope to regain her former position.