WHAT THE SOLDIERS KNOW.

Taranaki Daily News, 11 February 1916, Page 8

WHAT THE SOLDIERS KNOW.

HILAIRE BELLOO EXPLAINS THE GERMAN BID FOR PEACE. THE FACTS WHICH MAKE THEM SAY " PAX." Mr. Hilaire Belloc, in Land and Water, comments on the new German effort for peace, and explains why it is made just now, and shows that it seeks to achieve by political means what Germany cannot achieve by arms. POLITICAL EFFORT, "The enemy, now at the maximum oi liis actual occupation of territory, at tlie maximum, therefore, of his extension of front, and also at the end (with the exception of his classes 'lfi and 'l7) .of his reserves of men, is clearly sounding opiuion neutral and belligerent for the chance of peace. "From this moment onwards that political effort will proceed. The various stages of that effort will follow each other now at short intervals as ithe i strain of the war increases.

"So long as there was no question of either ,party accepting anything near his opponent's terms, the military problem alone was sufficient was discussion. Henceforward it Will not be wholly sufficient, and the increasing effort to conclude the great war upon terms that shall leave Prussia strong, and {though only negatively successful, still successful'in the eyes of her own subjects and allies, must form as large a part of our appreciation of tlie. War as tlie movement of troops, the rate of losses or the progress of Russia's re-arming and equipment.

THREE MAIN POINTS. "We must keep in mind three main points in the whole of this all-important business: — "(1) The effort for peace is coming from Prussia. "(2) It is coming from Prussia because the Prussian Government knows that it has passed its military maximum. and that in material and numbers tlie future in general is full of disaster, even the immediate future full of peril. "(3) The terms of peace will be made as favorable as possible for the Allies, because Prussia needs only one thing: time to recuperate—that is, to be left intact and, strong. Conversely such » peace would be, for the Allies, a defeat —however favorable the terms—so long as Prussia was left intact and strong. "The indications that the general effort for peace has begun are many. "It was perfectly clear to anyone who cared to follow the known figures of the enemy's man-power and the known figures of his wastage, that this effort would begin when his efficient reserves were nearing their end. His efficient reserves have now neared their end and the effort has begun. • ALL THAT IS LEFT. "Germany holds (and is already training in part) what remains of her classes '1(1 and 'l7. "Excluding these classes, a total German efficient mobilisable force of a little over eight million at the very utmost lias lost from all causes, counting 'permanent margin of temporary losses,' quite three million and a-lialf, and yet has to keep going units in the field of over three million with auxiliary services hardly less than a million, The sum is simple and the result obvious. "tieriyany alone —the Prussian head of the enemy's system —has now left for drafts to fill up the gaps in her units (gaps opening at the rate of not less than seven thousand a day), nothing but his two youngest possible classes and the incfficients he has already begun to tap. Hence Prussia's feeling for peace.

WHAT THE SOLDIERS KNOW. "Let us examine tlie basis upon which that effort reposes. We know in the first place that it makes no appeal to military opinion. That soldiers know well enough what the portion is:— "(1) The enemy is holding fronts of about 1500 miles. ' "(2) He cannot continue to hold those fronts much longer, because his efficient man-power in the field is beginning to decline. "(3) He has against him superior manpower potentially. With only this element still in his favor, that the Russian numbers are not yet equipped, armed and munitioned.

IvXOWS HE IS BEATE.V. '•Regarded as a purely strategical problem to be worked out on military grounds alone, the enemy is beaten and knows rthat be is beaten. But there are, unfortunately, other elements. "There k the -establishing of a false judgment upon the war in the mind of civilians and- particularly of neutrals, which it is hoped -may grow into a force too strong for the soldiers. "There is the hope upon the enemy's side of political changes in his favor, both through divergence in aim between the various Allies. "Finally, -there is the appeal to what is called 'financial exhaustion.' "When the 1 enemy says, 'Let us make peace on the basis of "a draw"! I am in occupation of much invaded territory and I 'can hold it indefinitely,' he is talking nonsense,'dangerous as the nonsense is, foV in ttttth he lias his powers at the utmost stretch, and. knows that his time is short. "But when he savs, 'Make peace because there are still other factors that mny come in against you,' he is nearer •to talking sense."