WAR NEWS LETTER.

Taranaki Daily News, 20 August 1915, Page 8

WAR NEWS LETTER.

GENERAL OUTLOOK. GERMANY'S ONLY HOPE LIES IN "FfUGHTFULNESS." " London, July 2. There is no doubt that the views of the public in this country about the war have recently undergone a change. lAt the outset of the war,, all the military critics who spill so much ink in the newspapers, and most of the professional soldiers helped to spread the belief that the fighting would all be over in a few months. Sir John French did not conceal his opinion that Christmas would see the end of it. In this respect we were almost as cocksure as the Germans, who gaily prophesied in Berlin, when war was declared, that they would be in Paris in six weeks, and win the war by Christmas. How near they were to realising the first part of that prophecy, and how far they are from accomplishing the second, only those know who understand the real military import of what has happened and is now happening.

It was the opinion of some of tlie very highest and best authorities in Europe at the outset of the war that no nation could 1 , maintain the stupendous and crushing cost of a modern European war very long. The theory was that modern wars on a grand scale would be brief, bloody, and decisive. There is a tendency now to modify th&t theory, and everybody is beginning to accept, with as much resignation as possible, the view that the present war may drag on until the end of next summer. Lord Kitchener has never been among the sanguine critics who expected a very short war.. But, on the other hand, 1 am told on excellent authority that ho docs not accept the view that it will be so long drawn out as that. But for shortage of ammunitions, it would probably have been finished before the next winter was will upon us. But the Russian set-back has materially changed the programme. The Germans will probably make another desperate bid, not for a decisive success, because that is now beyond their hopes, but for' something appreciable, with the object of extracting from the Allies a peace of despair.

GERMANY'S HOPE. The fervent hope in Berlin is that, if they can deal staggering or heavy blows east and west before the end of the summer, the Allies may be inclined with another long winter campaign drearily confronting them, to listen to specious proposals for a peace settlement sufficiently favourable to Germany to save the faces of the German War Lords. With this object in view nothing will be spared in tl way of milit<i;-y sacrifices, the policy of submarine and Zeppelin terrorism against this country will be energetically pursued, and the crafy wiles of German diplomacy exhaustin the attempt to brew dissenion among the Allies. But therein Berlin almost certainly deceives herself. Germany underestimates the mutual good faith that animates her foes. She does not v 1 '• stand the honourable interpretation of any international understanding. And she fails to realise the solid depth and thickness of the bitter feeling her perpetual aggressions of the past r 1 the arrogant brutalities of the present have provoked. It is very difficult for the most clearsighted and well-informed vision to look ahead at this moment. At any moment one of several factors may suddenly and decisively change the whole fortunes of the war, and all these factors would favour the Allies. The most authoritative view regards tho present situation in this light. First of all the progress of events on the East is steadily improving fom our point of view. One hears that the Russian retreat is being very skilfully and successfully conducted in the attempt to brew dissension among the Allies. But therein Berlin illmost certainly deceives herself. Germany underestimates the mutual good faith that animates her foes Site does not understand the honourable interpretation of of events in the East is steadily imless regions of their own frontier the less chance there is of anything of thekind being reported. So Ion;; as Uie Russan armies maintain touch and remain unl-rcken, and 3'.i tang a= they mil securely liold the strategic centre represented by Warsaw, the Russian position is quite sound. It is the belief -in London that the Russians, with that wonderful patience and big purpose that have distinguished them, have made great sacrifices during their present enfurced retreat in the south to maintain at all costs adequate forces to guard Warsaw and their western line, ft in believed that they have refused all temptations to draw troops from that essential service or even to draw upon the s;relyneeded munitions kept available for the latter in the event of another German drive at Warsaw. If this proves correct, and one is prepared to back it, tlit prospect that confronts the enemy in the East is not very reassuring from the point of view of Berlin or Vienna.

GROUNDS FUR OPTIMISM. If the Auatro-Gennan forces are going to accomplish their task of out Russia for all purposes of offensive actio.! long enough to concentrate their own energies elsewhere, it is high time tliey began to reach some decisive result. So far they have merely pushed thejtusians back not quite to where the campaign originally started so disastrously for the Austrians. It will not suit the enemy's book to have to face a fierce winter campaign on the inhospitable frontier of Russia. The grim of Napoleon's famished legions will haunt them if they do. Meanwhile thcrO are ominous movements afoot among the Balkan States, and at any moment the resistance of the Turks m Gallipoli may collapse under the strain of a war for which they were least of all the belligerents prepared. Once Uie road was free through the Dardanelles, Russia would speedily be able to mobilise, well equipped for the field, her huge I reserve armies, and we should be able

to draw some forces away from Egypt and Gallipoli to co-operate in the main campaign elsewliere. Germany no less than Austria has to think also of the Italian advance that is pressing steadily onward from the Adriatic. And what is the prospect in the west. The French and British alike axa confident that no concentration of fresh enemy forces can ecffctively break through their lines. On the other hand, the German lines are constantly weakening under the drain of war while the Allies improve their strength in men and guns. The Germans are attempting in the West, and may try the same thing in the East, to hold their trenches with a minimum of men and a maximum of machine guns supported by heavy artillery. But there is a limit to this possibility, and the drain on the material resources of Germany must be very heavy. And this brings-us to the most important consideration of all. Any one wlio realises what the effect of twelve months of war will be on the United Kingdom and France, commercially, industrially and economically, must believe that Germany's situation is pretty desperate. We and our Allies, with the exception of Russia, who is more self-sup-porting than any other European Power, have an. open free-board. So far as the activities of war allow, we can pursue our trade and draw our supplies from the world's markets.

None of these advantages is possessed by Germany. And there is a growing belief that the Teuton giant is already becoming more than a little groggy from sheer exhaustion. It is now a matter of history how Japan, in her war with Russia, suddenly had to agree to terras of peace. At that moment the military situation was entirely favourable to Japan, and she had the freedom of the seas. Yet Japan would never have accepted those terms but {or the imminence of economic collapse under the terrifle strain? of war. It is by iio means impossible that the world may be surprised by a similar collapse, only of a much more sensational nature, on the part of Germany. There is a limit to human endurance, and Germany must be approaching it rapidly. People iij this country who sometimes feel downhearted, not at the military, but at tlie economic outlook, would do well to remember Baden-Powell's advice to nervous scouts —and reflect how much worse "the fellow must feel."

WINSTON ON %HE liui\ The gossips who really think they know are certain Mr. Winston Churchill Till not long remain Chancellor of the Duchy. He is said to have been with difficulty persuaded to accept that Cabinet sinecure, and then only on strictly patriotic grounds, because it was undesirable to emphasise the change that took place when Lord Fisher mari-ed his great career by retiring. The old First Sea liord is reported to be much upset by what he now probably realises to have been a mistake., Winston will very possibly leave politics altogether for a tine, and throw himself into the war service in some capacity. Some people talk of him rejoining his old cavaln corps, but there is a moro plnjisible theory that Winston will become either first or second in command of the naval pir service. That is the way his enthusiastic ambitions looked since befor the war. It is odds on that we yet live to see Winston up among the little stars bomb-dropping.