PANIC AT KIEL.

Taranaki Daily News, Volume LVII, Issue 221, 25 February 1915, Page 5

PANIC AT KIEL.

I PROGRESS OF THE WAR So far as one ca» judge, the only panic caused by the famous German naval raid on our coast watering places has occurred in the neighborhood of the Kiel Canal. This docs not mean merely that Mr Churchill's aerial raid on Ciixhavcn has given the Germans "furiously to think," though it has inflicted considerable damage, not to semi-detached villas and school dormitories, hut to warships and coast defences. Thp panic in the Kiel Canal is due to the knowledge that German fleet now hag that our Intelligence Department was fully apprised of their little exploit beforehand, and that only by a miracle dM they escape a crushing disaster. What happened was thisi Our Admiralty got wind of the coming adventure. The composition of the raiding squadron was known. Our grand , fleet was ready to intercept it on its way back, and actually did so. The belief was that the German grand fleet could not possibly allow vessels of suchvital importance as those employed on the raid to be wiped out, as they must have been, without putting forth an effort to save them. We were prepared, in short, for "Dcr Tag." Everybody was eock-a-hoop. Everything was in apple-pie-order. 'And.-than Providence for once seemed almost to justify the Kaiser's blasphemous confidence in his Divine co-partnership. Down came one of •the thicket sea-fogs within the memory of North Sea seamen. It was impossible to see much more than the length of < a 16in. gun. The German raiders were ' apprised of the reception that waited them if they all went the same way' home. By a daring and extremely risky bit of seamanship, only permissible in the case of n"i who knew it was neck or nothing, th" German squadron succeeded in scooting round, and so got back te T ' ! «l.

TERRIBLE VON TIRPITZ. But if- w touch and go, and our seamen fear that we may not have another such chanol* presented to us by the terrible Von Tirpitz. The dreadful things that famous admiral is threatening to do to us, and he solemn declarations of pious ruthlessness and benign frightfulness that other German admirals and graft are bellowing, all encourage a healthy belief that Germany is already badly rattlecK The notion of blockading England with submarines, put forward by von Tirpitz, is quaintly amusing. The united submarine flotilla's of the world, including our own, which is by far the largest and efficient, could not effectually blockade the Isle of Man. There are many reasons why this is so, but one will suffice. The submarine is as about as useful at night ; as a; bat by day. From all accounts one hears from the sailor men the submarine peril, which loomed so large in the earlier days of the war, when the periscope in actual operations of war was'somewhat a novelty, is decidedly on the wane. These craft will have to be immensely perfected, particularly in the matter of vision and speed, before they are of much except in special ' clrcunistancea. A very clever submarine officer assures me that for a submarine to attempt to torpedo a fast cruiser under way is like a short sighted gentleman in motor goggles endeavoring to thread a needle swinging on a pendulum. THE LAND CAMPAIGN .

So far as the land campaign is concerned there is not much to be said. Tilings are going famously. In the '■ east the Russians have suffered heavily, but not more heavily than their foes; the Germans have held back the invaders from Silesia, but at a hideous toll, and themselves have no chances'of driving forward on Warsaw. While holding the Germans in Poland, compelling them to concentrate and to fight continually, the Russians are devoting special attention to the Austrians. The latter have once more, bean routed and driven ,in headlong rush with heavy losses along the line of the Carpathians. There is deep strategy, political as well aB military, in these tactics. The more the Austrians get knocked, about the less tfhey like it. If Russia succeeds in invading Hungary, Germany will be confronted with the necessity of either sending strong G-erman reinforcements to help her ally to defend herself or of seeing the au- . thorities of Vienna conclude peace on the best terms they can independently. In the West the Allies are making slow progress, but sure, all along the line, and on their eastern flank.are pressing forward until their guns now command tho outer fortress ring of Metz on the one side. The possibility of th« larg.i reserve? that soon will be available' in France being utilised by General Joffro on this flank is self-apparent. A situation may develop, at latest in the early days of spring, and perhaps before, which will find the Germans securely and resolutely held along their present lines in Flanders and the north of France, and threatened by an iiivasioD, in force towards the Rhineland which i would imperil their communications and ' 1 make a full retreat imperative. Neither military nor political considerations would permit the Germans to maintain their hold on Belgium when the supply of their troops were threatened arid the Fatherland was in the grip of invasion. < THE STRENGTH OF THE GERMAN ARMIES. From a very competent military source I have obtained a rough but reliable estimate of the military forces at the disposition of the Kaiser's Grand Staff. It may be taken that in round figures Germany has at this moment about two and a quarter million men operating in tho West. Against the Russians in the east she has arrayed about one million and a quarter. For linos of communication and absolutely essential duties throughout Germany not less than a million and a half must be allowed. The total German casualties to date, including killed, wounded prisoners, and sick on both fronts, is at least two millions. This totals up to seven millions of men. which is just about the figure accredited for a full German mobilisation of all grades of trained men. There are new recruits and special enlistments to bo reckoned with, but neither of these will count for very much in this war. RUSSIAN MILLIONS. Against these figures we may sot five, millions for Russia. She possesses mole trained men than that, but could hardly equip them. Nevertheless, Russia can maintain five million men in the field, good fighting men well equipped and well trained, in spite of all losses.' Fol tho allies in the west, we can allow at the very least four millions of tho very best fighting men, estimating only three millions for the French, which is certainly below the mark, and-a million British. These figures tell thir own talc, and account for the extraordinary change of tone and mood that has taken place in Germany since the. war started. The Germans are no longer spouting conquest 1 and dominjon. Their present mood verges perilously on the sauve qui peut. It may he said that the figures given above omit Austria. Well, Austria is not much of a makeweight as an effective fighting machine. Probably she could muster throe million men of sorts, but her finances are pitiable, and her i morale wretched. The Russians are , quite prepared to make the Germans a present of the Austrians. If the old . Emperor died, development!) in Austri I alreiidv ponding would, in the opinion r of diplomatist of experience and know» . ledge, he. surely precipitated. The Kaiser i may soon b ( > saying in his favorite ' Shakesperean metre: i "We have no friend, But resolution and the briefest end.'?