AFTER THE WAR.

Taranaki Daily News, Volume LVII, Issue 138, 4 November 1914, Page 4

AFTER THE WAR.

The San Francisco Argonaut has been discussing the possibilities arising out of tho present war. This journal is ningularly well informed and dispassionate, and its commentaries are exceedingly interesting at this stage. The Argonaut seems to incline to tho view that the war will be brought, to a close by the exhaustion of all parties, rendering tlieiu amenable to compromise. But there is an alternative, which is cogently expressed by -our contemporary that we' make no excuse for presenting it to our readers. "What if the combined armies j of England, France ifnd Belgium, forcing back tho Kaiser's legions, successfully invade Germany? What if Servia, stirring discontent into flame, divide the house of Austria against itself? \V'iiat if by a hold- stroke, for which the mem-

ories of Copenhagen supply the iuspira- [ tion, the English fleet shall move into I the Baltic tind overwhelm the German J navy? It is a harrowing picture, yet it is not beyond the limits of possibility. What then? It will be for England, in counsel with Russia, Trance, Belgium, Servia and Italy—to dictate the terms. Can any man doubt that the knife will cut to the bone? Yet it is to be remembered that in the division of spoils by the Allies, inusual jealousies and tears must taken into account. Xot only to-day, but to-morrow, with its possible 'realignments,, must be regarded. It 1 I will, we think, be a common agreement ■ that the cause of this war was the overgro.vn military establishment of Gcr- ■ mary. Therefore the first demand will he for disarmament. Napoleon after 1 •lena the standing army of 1 Prussia to 12,000 men. Times and con- 1 ditions have altered, but it would not «

be surprising if this precedent were | remembered. The next consideration will be the reimbursement of war expenditurcs, with Belgium by common consent a preferred creditor. The sum wrung from France by Germany in 1870 will be many times multiplied when the final score is presented to the German chancellery by the allied victors. Each of the conquering nations will expect full recompense for military expenditures, with further indemnity in reprisal for direct and indirect losses. Back of the question of recompense will He a common determination so to impress and cripple Germany as to render her incapable of further menace to the peace of Europe. In every age allies havo found it easier to achieve victory than to apportion its spoils. Territorial readjustment will undoubtedly be the most difficult problem, and the rock upon which, without very skilful diplomacy, settlement may split. France will be content with Alsace-Lorraine. Servia will demand the addition to her kingdom of , the Servian-speaking provinces of Aus-tria-Hungary, Bosnia, Herzegovina, and perhaps Croatia. - But it is to be doubted if Russia would look with favor upon such a dislocation of the Balkan balance. And if Servia is to be territorially compensated the aspirations of Koumania . and Bulgaria must be taken into con- , sideration, and it is highly probable that , some additional Austro-Hungary terri- ,' tory must be sacrificed to their demands.

A further demand of Serva will be for a direct outlet upon the (Adriatic, The full wishes of Russia are not likely, we think, to be reflected in her positive demands. She wants Constantinople; she

wants Prussian Poland to be-.joined to her own Polish provinces. She would like a free hand with Norway and Sweden to the end of finding an outlet to the open sea. But Russia will be mindful both of the jealousy and the power of England, and she will curb her spirit within limits' which England may be willing to concede as reasonable. Before her mind there will be the thought of a .; possible futuro Anglo-Gorman combina(tion, and this consideration may make t ; her content with moderate terms. The : formation of a reconstituted and autonomoiA Poland under Russian sove- , reignty, thus satisfying her racial aspirations and fulfilling her promise to the Poles, would go far towards satisfying her. Italy we are assuming to have had , BO actual share in the war. Btit in recompense for her desertion of the Triple Alliance, the Allies may well apportion to her some share of the spoils. We come now to the probable demand of England. She will have suffered less than any of the Allies, yet her demands will not be rendered modest thereby. England is neither an Alphonso nor a Gaston. 'After you,' is a phrase not found in her diplomatic vocabulary.. She chooses bold and grasps large. She will assert a special justification under her obligation to include the claims of her private Ally, Japan, with her own. Territorially there is little that England wants which she hasn't got already. She will, of course, take German East Africa and hold the South Sea islands which her colonies have seized. She will, of course, leave Japan in possession of what she has grasped in China. Wherever German enterprise has gained a footing round the world England will undertake to make that footing her own. But her greater reward will be in the crippling of Germany as an industrial and commercial rival in the markets of the world, and in relief from that hysterical fear of German invasion which had become her obsession."