THE WAR AND AFTER.

Taranaki Daily News, Volume LVI, Issue 83, 2 September 1914, Page 7

THE WAR AND AFTER.

By Sir JosepUi O&mittoeris, in tiie .Sydney Daflly Telegraph.)

In 1908, when I iretarmed to this State .alter a visit 'to England as -Executive Oommitssiioner to the Franco-British Exhibition, I expressed tllie opinion thai war between -Germany and England was iiifflvtoble wiithim a vciy few yearn, it had to owno if Germany persisted in its policy of attempting to gain both a military and naval ascendancy over otltoer Bulropeam Powers. TSie time -was a,ipe whenever tihe excuse or "casus belli'' occurred. I ann one of those who 'believe itiliait the Tinp'le Entente between Russia, l'lrauce and England is fortu maito flor -England' as well as for Uie other parties to the wwnipaet. Unless we, of English views and sympathies. | llavo beem deceived, or -have deceived ourselves, tihe (result -of the w\an must be disastrous to the najval power of iierinany, and probably in a lesser degree Do its military power. Assuming, therefore, that events come to pass iii accord with ttas belief, wtat are tihe -prospects of Anatolia during the progress of tin© war and afterwards'! Undoubtedly we are in am ara of crisis in the world's history, and big happenings will oociu)r politically, financially and socially. In ttoose happenings AiustraJia will have to share. The wasesit man can hardly forecast tlhe extent of the effect of tihe way in, any diracltiloin, but any main may. see cleanly manythings ahead) of us> in Australia as palpable. WHAT TO EXPECT.

1 tiake no gloomy view of 'the future unless one regards as glo&miy the view that a severe check on the current of our industrial and commercial lite i : s naturally to bo .expected. Ido not. however, regard the check as likely to be beyond oiir ptonvem of recuperation or endiuraoice if o.uir people and our woverniments' remain aool and p#M'D.ie a prudeiut course. Atoney is boiund to be seance. Employment must diminish, and our trad'. and commerce will 'be restricted. No one can ex;pcct otherwise. Hut what everyone can do and what men in potwer whether in politics in -finance, or in industry, ohiust do, iivto avoid contributing in any way to the accentuation of tnese evils. I luuve mot many men and women who, in most times, are sane and business-like, yet in this critical period have been inclined to give way to panic 'tendencies. Soane have withdrawn gold, and others have made equally viain provision as if again# suu enemy. Tile gireaJtest enemy Australia can have to-dlay is tjlie man who will take t'he slightest action for his own selfish protection, which, if similarly taken by ot'hom, would caiuse general disaster. The safety of Australia, to-day more depends on : the coolness of its people in the management of their financial and business affaars than on anything else. Whatever is to haippen as the inevitable mult of war is one tiling. j What may lliappem as ithe result of our own Solly is another and perhaps more semoois "tilling. I Even although there will be a ifltriaigcniey of .~e money market, and a great slackening off of our enterprises, \<-luch emlploy our workers, yet, aw, Australia will still be producing iits wool, iits wlhea.t, its butter, its foodstuffs, and will stil'l have, fits increasing hesnfe and flocks, and its greaft natural audi primary resources (except in miming) in full working ordat The markets will be temporarily l deranged, and prices and values for a. ti«i» will be amcentain. Of this, however, I feel sure; that tlhe demand for the m|ain products of our land, which constitute -threefourths of omir wealtlh, will never diminish, even though' war may contarrasy our tiladkj whilst the eonllfiet rages. Once the 'British Navy, by a ,dtd:yira action in tllie iSorth Sc.i, removes all doubt as to 'the supreimiqy of Mir seapower, and so opens our trade routes to safety, there will spring up an immediate demand for all the jnjeat, wheat, butter and. food-istulls that we have for export, and at prices that will heip to re-establish the rnaM values of olmr herds and lloeks. Our wool will ibe in demand at good! values, even if nflit at recent record nates. Woollen clothing is not 16'ke like or saitin, a- luxury, hut a necessity of the world, and even though the markets of Gcnmsuiy wul Austria he t-losed to us, vet they aire

noih all oui! markets, since Japan, America Russia, iirance, Spain, Portugal, and all the oitilwsr European' rnailts, as well as England, will' Ibo open to Ms. OUR POWERS OF RECUPERATION

'.iliie war cannot, last tang. The nrcry deadly mplcmients of war that 'well naityon arms itself with preclude long, drawn-out caniipajgns. The stress ot a general way, sucjli as Europe ib now en gaged in, cannot 'be long endured. JWic will scon be reached, and if rulers will not make tenuis, the people will take a, hand on their own Once the w«ir is over, tlhe demand rov the 'primary proteta of onir country will set in afresOi, and be wn gi vur t'lraiH ever. Mnether prices will) soar high Whilst' money remains dear is inprobable; and money will be much I j dearer for yearn than recenHlv. iMit fey I and large, nothing t'hoit I can fursee wiil stand in the way of a rapid ipcovery of the trade in our great States from our pastoral, dairying aiud ajanieulfemul industries, which, alter all, r'epi'es'cnl. three-fourths of our wealth, owr 'trade, ow <it:miM>rec, and are the sources of the bulk of ojuir employment. As to or mining Industrie-, our cc.a! trade will receive a set-Uauk owiug ii> the istoppage 'Of mines wllm'ili re-quire coke, whilst our silver and .'lead niint« will for months lie idle. The loss from) these sources will be considerable, and probably a deadi low. liux tlnire is 'bound to be a shortage in the -world's is'Uipply of lead, silver, and /inc., and once the war end)?' there will be mncwc-l activity in omr mini's. Whatever may be Australia's share of the ill-fortune of war, it will be as nothing compared to that of the European. countries engaged, rohe,re. waste and destruction will be added as factors to suspended industry in. agriculture and manufacturing. Whilst tilley are Spending time, money and men on impairing the loss from waste and tlos'.mctwin, Australia wnl.l be moving: along in profitable production. The jmoKpedU ahead of ns 111:1 v not be bright, but they are far >mraie gloomy in tllie scn.se that might imliuce. paui:. 1 laird times we will lhave f<v the «ie.\t few weeks, with thousands out of regular work and with an abnormal stringency in our hnanwv. It. is l possible, nowwer, to aldev.iate tihese conditions if reasonable means are adopt'-d and accepted l>v -all concerned. '!'!;■• (iove'ranient are taking l a nviso step i:> regard to the mduisteial laws, anil .( •omy the same sane and ireasiowili!--spirit U displayed in tiro management of i- r." financial allaiiTM, ihoth privar.e and li'f'c, I feel wnw. that Aiifttra'ii •will go torongh lids great, period of stress wfifc.i less of a "fict-liack"' than 'any other country in the world