A PROPHETIC WRITING.

Taranaki Daily News, Volume LVI, Issue 80, 26 August 1914, Page 2

A PROPHETIC WRITING.

1 BRITAIN'S VITAL INTEREST. 1 THE COST OF FRENCH DEFEAT. Among the striking books available on the relationship of Germany to the rest of Europe is a vigorous volume, "What Germany 'Wants," by Mr YV. N. Willis. The wrjitor has colluded in this book # deal of interesting matter, and has get out at length tile German desire for colonisation, and particularly the. liope of acquiring ready-made colonies by first reaching a sufficient strength to take them. At the moment, 'however, one of the most interesting passages 111 t-h book ifi a dialogue, or rather a monologue, which the author records as the utterance of "one of the best known living authorities 011 international polities." "If Germany does not got what s'':e wants," I asked, "what will happen V" "War," my friend laconically replied. . . But Germany would prefer not ■to go to war for at least another year or two—say, not until the <spring of 1913. That is the veTy earlie/t date to suit her purpose. She would rather wait until she is stronger—in other words, until her army and navy are considerably strengthened. While she is waiting and strengthening tier forces she is anxious to do a little bit of diplomatic scrummaging and bartering for minor entrees on the international! banqueting menu. That policy would suit her admirably. It would give her what she wants—time. That is German policy, and it is German, history repeating itself." "But," I asked, "should she be rebuffed' in the diplomatic parlor, what then?" j "In that case, Germany would wait until t'he spring of 1913, and 'then pick a quarrel with France. Germany, above all nations, cannot afford to risk a war with big chances of being defeated. Internally she has all the Socialistic ele- | miients, though not the poverty, that j France had before the great Revolution j with this, difference—tlu! Socialists of [to-day are educated. . . . It is cortain that the Socialists would fight, with ! lvand and brain against the- monarchy if ) Germany risked a war before she wa« f fully ready, and by any chance lost. In iall probability that would mean tlio end of the Oman dynasty, and the end' of tlio German Empire as an Imperial monarchy. . . if she won, and it is estimated that single-handed she could not lose, cmce she entered Paris as a victor, she would demand' such an indemnity as would not only stagger France, but the whole wortii'. In her 1870 war with France, Germany ni.ude it a business undertaking, and cleared about £200,000,000 in cash, in addition to the two provinces, Alsiwe and Lorraine. Bismarck often regretted he did not make the indemnity more, say, £400,000,000. If the Germans a«niii provoke a war with France, and enter Paris, the indemnity they exact would be nearer f000,000,000.' This will provide Germany with funds to flaunt as the disturber of Europe for many a long year. ..." "But simpose she gets all her 'entrees' at the diplomatic conclave?" "Well, she will then postpfln:; war until, as 1 say, she is stronger and surer. But war is sure to follow, in any event [. . . . it is only a matter of when, and under what circumstances." Waving thus forecasted the war as an inevitable part of Germany's immediate plans, the speaker contracts the Germ s:i and French armies, not at all in favor of the latter, whicHi he set down as half a inillion as against the Germans' 800.000, and then speculates upon the high probability that Genmany would first, take Belgium and Holland. Germany's naval programme, he says, is not. iieee.ssarily aimed at an invasion 0;' Rnglan!', tat to keep England at arms' length to prevent England from interfering withonlt. placing her own Navy in jeopardy. "The British Navy, no matter how strong, cannot prevent tile Germans entering Paris. Therefore, if we are to be loyal to France—and it is a life and death iultcrest to 11s to be loyal—it ,11 Ist be not sentimental loyalty, but hard, practical loyalty. If we :UY to Ue."> France safe from German thraldom v.: nwiist be prepared to defend her Bel'N'.ii frontier 'with at least 150,00fl reasoned troops."