FORECASTING THE WEATHER.

Taranaki Daily News, Volume LVII, Issue 54, 24 July 1914, Page 8

FORECASTING THE WEATHER.

AIR CLEAIEXT WRAGGE'S PREDICTIONS. Auckland, July 23, | -Mr Clement YVraggc is one of the few meteorologists in the southern hemisphere who tackle the difficult problem of forecasting the seasons, as distinct from the ordinary forecasting work that is done from day to day and, concerning tins, he gave some most interesting details to a pressman. "The. forecasting of the seasons," he observed, "can only be done on an astronomical basis. We have first to study the physical condition of the sun with respect to its maxima and minima moods. Secondly, we have to take into consideration the astronomical position of the moon, and particularly witli respect to the swing of what is' known as the lunar is, its distance north or south of the equator. Not everyone realises that this swing pioduces not only tides in the sea, but tides in the atmosphere, and tides in the very ground we are standing on. The very streets in the city rise and fall about eight inches every day. "Next we have to consider the perturbation that is caused in our atmossphcrc by the astronomical positions of our fellow planets. The theory is that this vibration of the ether—or" wireless, as it really is—by acceleration or retardation plus and minus, positive and nigative, is the main factor in the deteimination of the forecasting of the seasons.

Arguing on these lines, I met with a high percentage of accuracy in forecasting for Australia. I told about the drought of I'.UfcJ and tin- good season of l!lu:)-H)-M. I said there would be a fallin;- oil" in the rainfall in 11)12-13-14, ever n membcring Uiat the factors of physical urography and latitude—a most especial point that of latitude and proximity to the sea—are modifying factors. The ruins on the New South Wales coast and the .Maitland floods were brought about by the big swing of the declination of the moon counteracting the. solar minimum, whereas the other parts of Australia suffered a drought. I also told them that 11)14. although a bad year in regard to Australia, would not lie so bad as 1913, because the sun's minimum is coming to an end. The sun is again beginning to show signs of activity and the rainfall is beginning to go up again.

•'Tlit'- year l!H."i will show a steady improvement," continued Mr Wrasrgp. "'ln 1818-17-IK-1!). and probably 11)20, there will lit' good seasons. In IKI--2-2. the rainfall wil licrin to go oIV again and will seriously fall in 1!'23-4 There will bit a vcrv bad drought in Australia —worst', I think, than the big tlrouglit of IWI-2. Tin l sun and moon should then be working in conjunction and not in antagonism. The year 1H25 will show an improvement, and then on to 1 !I3<> there should be good seasons, f have been talking about Australia, and all 1 have said is, to a modified extent, applicable to New Zealand. Krojn these modifying factors, New Zealand can never experience the so-called droughts of Australia, There will always lie mole rain than in Ausfraia. We have every reason to believe that the rainfall will go up from now with prospects generally of good seasons. There mav be some Hoods, probably in the Waikato. Such Hoods may seriously be expected between l!ll."i anil mill, during which \cars the rainfall will probably be heavier than in Australia,"