NO WAR THIS YEAR.

Taranaki Daily News, Volume LV, Issue 290, 30 April 1913, Page 8

NO WAR THIS YEAR.

THE SPECTATOR'S FORECAST. "There can bo no dcnbt that thero is at the present moment a good deal of uneasiness amo:ig the thinking men in England in regard to the European situation," declares the Spectator in a remarkable article which appeared on March 8.

"The re-awakening of France and the evidence of her power and alertness have v give: l , immense, nay, universal, satisfaction in this country, but that satisfaction is tempered in many cases by an anxious thought. The French, it is argued, are att this moment very sure of themselves, very full of patriotism and martial ardor, and very certain that their Army is in magnificent condition, not only as regards its men, but also as regards 'material,' and especially as regards that greatest of all the mechanic power* of war, artillery. At the same time France, with all her natural quickness, recognises that for the moment Germany is at a disadvantage.

"Austria-Hungary has her legs caught in the wire entanglements of the Balkans, and, if the great war came now, •would require help from Germany rather than be able to give her aid. But if the fight comes with Austria-Hungary thus entangled, can anyone believe that Italy will run the appalling risks involved by adhesion to the Triple liance? Germany, indeed, may be said to have publicly admitted her condition, ,;: of disadvantage, for is jiot she at this :>j moment asking her taxpayers to make an unheard-of sacrifice in order that she '■ may remedy that condition, and out of j 1 her own population create a new army which will make up for the aid that Austria-Hungary would have given her ' ! before the teeth of the dead Turkish I dragon had grown its crop of armed men in the Balkans?

"To sum up, there fe a feeling here that France may find" the temptation of' 'Now or Never' too great for her, and may feel that her national interests de- • mand that the European struggle shall be fought out thil* year." Tb resist this feeling the Spectator points out that) there is a large body of wise, prudent and influential men in France who understand that any attempt to carry out "the 'now or never' policy* would forfeit the probably of Russia, and certainly of Britain. And if Britain were not with France, French communications with Tunis, Algiers and Morocco might be severed by the <3er* man-Austro-Italian fleet and the French flank turned by a German invasion of French territory. German sea-power b in reality directed as much against France as against Britain. For these reasons France is not in the. , least likely to provoke war this year, a* "she is not going to knock her head against, a brick wall." Nor, concludes the Spectator, is Germany likely to do* liberately provoke a conflict. I*.--' =====