The Daily News MONDAY, NOVEMBER 2. THE ELECTIONS.

Taranaki Daily News, Volume LI, Issue 265, 2 November 1908, Page 2

The Daily News MONDAY, NOVEMBER 2. THE ELECTIONS.

Twelve months ago there was room for considerable doubt as to the estimation in which the Ward Government was held by the country; now there can be none whatever. According to a list published by the official organ of the Opposition ("the "Dominion"), there are 110 candidates figuring upon the hustings seeking to obtain seats in Parliament under the auspices of the Government, whilst only 51 are standing ill the interests of the Opposition. The comparative numbers ol the candidates may be taken as to some extent indicative of belief in the strength of the Government's cause. The general election ol 1905, in tbe defeat or Sir William liiisscll aud Mr, Dutliie, gave two results which occasioned much surprise. '.I he influences, sume oi thcin trillingly sma I, working in a country constituency are hidden from the gaze'of the general outsider, and therefore Ihe re is always a liability to surprise; but apart from this consideration it should not be very difficult tu pretty -accurately forecast results. More p.irticul.jrlv is this the case in regard to the South Island.

Messrs. J. Allen, Hardy, and W. Eraser have been man/ years in Parliament; they are consequently experienced members, and they have' rendered good service to the country. Mr. Malcolm came into Parliament at the last general election, and has at least done all that his constituents could expect of him. Of the Opposition candidates in tbe South Island, these four gentlemen may be looked "-lipoiv as reasonably certain to b a c lv iVee«BWH|B^BBW|B Mr. Rhodes, te. encounter a farmer-candidate wiTTV is not onlv an able man but very popular in bis "district. Mr. Lewis' constituency having beeu swept away, he retires from public life. In the South Island there are no icwer than seventeen constituencies where more than two candidates are aspiring, and—if all go to the poll—in several of these districts the second ballot will - come into operation. In Huruuui, where two Ministerialists are standing, it is possible that Mr. Clothier mav win. but, leaving him out and accepting Mr. Rhodes, the Opposition eim scarcely expect to have more than five members returned from the South Island. So far, therefore, as the South is concerned, the state of parties is likely to remain very much as it is at present.

As,was the ease at the last general election, it is a much more difficult task to forecast results in the North Island, where four members of the dying Parliament are retiring from public life. For three of the districts of these four members there arc four candidates standing, and for the iourth district three candidates. On appearances-the Government should win at least two of the Opposition seats —Oroua and ellington South. By the recent rearrangement of the constituencies two districts have been taken from the South and given to the North Island. For Eginont, a newly constituted district, there are four candidates in the field, 'whilst, for Wellington South—the other newly constituted district—there are 110 fewer than -six: and in both cases all the candidates except Dr. Newman have never been previously in Parliament. Thus, there are ■d?; districts for which no member of ill.' late Parliament is a candidate, and •i *uch a scramble it would be exceedM'ly venturesome to say what the rc--ult will be. To these doubtful districts have to be added Kaipara, Tlawke's Bay, Manawatu. I'uliiatua, Parnell. Wairarapn. Wellington Hast, and Wellington South, not to forget Taranaki and Stratford,' where the contests may l.e expected 'to be keen and the majorities narrow. The Auckland districts and Grey Lynn may be expected, to make no change in their representation, and with the possible exception of the two districts already mentioned, the Wellington districts, as far as one can jntlge. will prohaldv adhere to the sitting members. Should Sir William Russell come back again for llawkc's I!av, the whole country will gladlv welcome him. Without regard to political questions, men of his high character, experience, and proved ability are needed in Parliament. Through voluntary retirements there must be at least ten new faces in the next Parliament. Assuredly all the doubtful seats indicated will not fall to the Opposition, but with a majority of thirty votes from the South Tsland and with the seats in the North Tsland which arc perfectly secure to sitting Ministerialists, the Government is certain to come back from the country with a majority not much'smaller than it now enjoys.