THE FALL IN BUTTER.

Taranaki Daily News, Volume XLVII, Issue 8046, 10 February 1906, Page 2

THE FALL IN BUTTER.

AN EXAGGERATED SCARE. NO CAUSE Poll ALARM. Notwithstanding thealarmist articles that have been contributed, p irt ieularlv to the metropolitan jouririls, concerning the alleged collapse in the bullet' market, those most vilaliv interested, the dairy farmers an I cj-oper.ilive laclorv companies throughout Tarainlii, h ive exhibited no alarm, although a certain amount of disappointment is undoubtedly Celt. The more philosophical, however, point out that prices are still high, and <|iiite as good as were anticipated prior to the opening of the season.

Yesterday a Nines representative hud a chat Willi several of the local lintter dealers and exporters, and while ■ill were optimistic, and insistent that, sn t'iir as they could judge, there was not the slightest ground for the " scare " thaf I'een created, the majority hud I'itc advises enabling the in to ill-ike a forecast with the degree of eertaiulv tlicy would wish to have assotinted W 'H' their names. Messrs J, B. MacEwan and Company expressed (he opinion that while the butter market in general is somewhat of a gamble, aud therefore not to bj forecasted with certainty, there was no cause for alarm. Tt was perfect rot to say the market had collapsed. It had only collapsed from its abnormal price, Prices so far this season have been higher than for about ten years past, and in consequence anticipations have been based too high. Immediately prices dropped to what, in the past, has been a high level, a scare was created in some circles. The High Commissioner's cable, stating that the market had collapsed, had been taken 100 literally. The term was merely a trade one, and indicated at the worst a temporary unusual fall. Private cable advices from the Home market give no evidence of a scare, the fall in prices being merely recorded in the usual way. The "scare," if such it could be designated, was got up by those who were .practically lucre "lookers on "at the irade. The high prices that have ruled tip till now were easily accounted for, and from that verv cause, the drop in prices was almost inevitable, l'rior to Christinas the Home market wits almost uuprcccdentedly bare, and the firm's advices j anticipated that when the temporary jfamine wis ended by the arrivals of ' heavy colonial shipments and Continental supplies in the new year, prices would drop. Asked whether their experiences showed that the unloading of " faked " butter 011 the market might not be a serious factor in bringing down the price, a negative answer was given. On the other hand it was probably owing to the existence of "faking" establishments, which demanded highgrade butter, that the market prior ti Xm-is had been kept so bare, and the prices consequently high. Tt was doubtful whether the New Zealand producers had not, up to the present, actually been gainers by the 'faking" business. The only real apprehension that need be felt regarding " faked " butter prcjudicallv affecting the Colonial trade, was in the faet. that a number of hitherto well-known brands, will have been withdrawn from open market for " faking" purposes. The loss, if any, will be apparent when these brands again go 011 the open market, and have to re-establish a connection. One factor that had no doubt had some effect on last week's nurket, and which was not unanticipated, was an influx of American butter. Ilecent advices received showed that New York wa* holding large supplies, slightly under 'firstgrade, which would probably be unloaded on the English market. Summed up, the position was that, owing to the dearth of Continental, the small shipments from the colonies, and the demand for good butters for " faking," prices had been elevated to

au abnormal level. Now, with the large Colonial and probably Continental arrivals, and the unloading of cheap American, the market had dropped back lo a normal level. While it was unsafe to prophesy, there was nothing lo indicate that there would be any drop below litis to litis, a price thai in the past has been considered by no means unrcmunerafive.

The cheese market continues quite Hood, aiul although there has been a slight drop, il was generally expected to shortly recover. Mr Grilliths, of Bewley & Griffiths, interviewed, said that although prices for bailor had fallen considerably, (hev were still higher than for some time past. P[o expressed the opinion that the present price would be maintained, although a gradual drop must be expected as the season progresses. February in the Northern Hemisphere corresponds with our August, when the great majority of the eows are coming into profit, consequently Continental and Home supplies are now becoming plentiful, ami must have an

effect on the market. There was nothing to indicate that prices would drop so low as to reduce the season's average below that which has ruled in the best of recent years. Also, it did not appear that the present 'drop would be sufficient to bring the returns for the season below that anticipated prior to the commencement of the season about ID'.d. If past experience were not merely accidental, there was yet u possibility tlut butters to arrive might meet an upward market. While it may have been only a coincidence, if was strange that in the past three out of four years, butters leaving New /I 'aland in. 1 ,ejliuti arrived on strong markets, averaging 110s, and while expressing no opinion on this point, no one could say that like condilions might not be again experienced

towards the end of April and Mav Mr (irilhlhs (juite believed that largt arrivals of American "process" buttei on the London market had, to sonic extent, accounted tor the sudden drop, lhc high prices ruling in Britain iniisl have oflered considerable inducement to America's holder* to export. Two or three years ago large t|nantities of American " process" butter was unloaded in London at an average price of "(Is per e\v|., then considered a satisfactory relnrn. With the late existing state of the market, similar butter would prfibablv be fetching about litis, a price that was no doubt sullicieutly alluring to tempt American holders. Iheiiiflnxof American butler was forecasted by Messrs Bewley and (Tritilths' Boston (F.S.A.) cor'resp indent some time ago. Writing under date 2nd November, 1905, this 'authority, in the course of a letter, states:— "'lie fact is, (here is so much sentiment iu connection with operations this year in butler, that it is diflicult lo arrive at mailers wilh any degree of certainly. The make has kept up so remarkably „cll and is still I

large, Hull il is striking irri'ni' i11(o holders of cold storage slocks. | commencing lo feel as if there was a strong probability of our having to export some of these slocks, ami certainly will, should llii' winter make prove as large as now seems eerlain. We have had one of the tnosl prolific years m everything except Hie mailer of Ji|>])lrs, . , , ive have got | 0 c\l'orl largdy of nearlv all our cereals, and Hie cpiostion is, liave we not jrot lo cxporl sonic of our butler ! J This will "'alie i|uitc a dilTerence to vour country as well us Aiistnilia, should lliis Imller go into English markets this winter. I don I think it is likely (liat inueli will go before the turn of the year, because there will be a natural tendency lo hold on to slucks, hoping lor heller prices, but generally with tlic turn of the year, bankers commence lo press holders of butler to dispn.se of same. 'lliis, uf con I'm*, means tliey h.'uc then got lo lake prices lliat exporters can alWd In iviv, ami in anv event II looks as if sueli prices would mean a serious loss to holders here. Tl would be well lo keen Ihe matlcr in mind, and walch lliis side very closely ' after this." It will be observed thai this prognostication has been fiillillcd, so far as exportalions are concerned. 1 ;inil 1 o lliis and the incoming Conli- : nental supplies, is more than anything ' else, the natural drop ijj butter duo. '