Market Prospects and Reports.

Te Aroha News, 15 February 1890, Page 4

Market Prospects and Reports.

(From the New Zealand Farmer.) Notwithstanding seemingly impending low prices during the ensuing ten months for our principal cereal products —wheat and oats—the financial position of the agricultural and pastoral industries promises to exhibit, at the end of the year, a vast improvement on that of any season since 1882. Probable values of wheat and oats do not apparently signify ruinously low prices, while the promise of abundant yields should go a long way towards compensating for depreciated rates. Growers of prime barley will be quite independent of local and intercolonial demand, for throughout Europe and America superior malting qualities are so scarce that they are quoted in Mark Lane, London, at from 45s to 50s per quarter—a rise of quite 10s per quarter within the past four months. As regards wheat, reliable estimates from authentic sources admit of a certain degree of accuracy in estimating the world’s supplies and requirements for the present year, and apparently these nearly balance. The large production of the United States is counterbalanced by material deficiencies in the harvests of Southern Russia and Eastern Europe generally. A recent report from the British Consul-General states that the wheat crop of Southern Russia is about a third only of that of 1888. Taking 100 to represent an average crop, the following is the comparative estimate there: —

It must be added, howe%’er, that the stocks of old wheat in Russia held over would in some measure compensate for the deficiencies of last crop. At the risk of repetition the followine estimates, approved at the International Conference at Vienna, are submitted :

But, as pointed out in the Pacific Rural Press, to the requirements given above must be added the islands in the Atlantia and Pacific, and also those of China, which aggregate fully 5,000,000 quarters. Accepting this then as correot, the world's surplus and requirements will by the above be about equally balanced. Since, however, the meeting at the International Grain Market Conference, official reports have been published by several nations of the out-turn of wheat, and from which the Rural Press has compiled the following tables showing in bushels the comparative yields of 1888 and 1889 :

From the foregoing it will be perceived that the official estimate of this year’s yield in the United States, and France, is larger than that made by the trade at Vienna, while that of the United Kingdom and several other countries is less. The two estimates of production stand thus : Bushels, International Grain Market Estitimate .. .. .. .. 2,114,192,000 Pacific Rural Press Estimate .. 2,053,919,000 Difference 61,272,000 It is contended, and the present aspect of markets in importing countries seemingly justify the assumption, that available supplies of wheat will fall short of the quantities estimated at the Vienna Conference, while the requirements have been under stated. The rye crops of Europe and the corn crop of Russia are light and the deficiencies will have to be met by increased consumption of wheat, while competent authorities say “ it is not at all lively that the United States wiU have ag much to export as given at the International Grain Market, for the requirements of the country are increasing quite rapidly. The consumption is growing both for food and seed, owing to more lands being brought under cultivation as transportation facilities are afforded for cultivating the grain cultivated.” It is therefore argued that the general situation of wheat is in favour of the holding interests of farmers in the United States. A 8 regards tjie market prqspgcfcs for the produce.of the approaching harvest in this colony the following figures will serve as a guide, supposing New Zealand wheat to be worth 35s (Id in the London market and freight and charges as high as calculated. s. d. Eight bushels at 3s 3(d •• •• •• 2 £ 2 ;; :: jj Total .. ~ ~ .. 35 6 The estimated freight and charges are probably high, but on the other band, shippers’ profits are nob taken into account. On the whole, however, it at present appears that farmers may reasonably expect from 3s to 3s 3d per bushel for wheat f.o.b. For growth of oats in the Middle Island, the prospect of obtaining remunerative prices is very remote. The prohibitive dutjoa in Victoria preclude all hpp.9 of dp?“#M f°F the cereal "fropi 'that quarter, wpile the promise 'of abundant 'maize h»r; vests in New ’South find Queensland wip leave littje room for shipments of 'feed oats fo those colonies' iWsibly a moreextensive trade in’ ’oafoheaf may be pushed, *

but at best this will provide a very insufficient outlet for the heavy crops now almost ready for harvesting. The surplus then must be marketed in England, where certainly New Zealand oats is held in high estimation. It is necessary here to caution producers as to the amount of belief to be accorded to Reuter’s cables of market prices for produce. In the majority of instances they are inexact, or altogether unreliable, and that the Press Association have so long submitted to the infliction is a matter of wonderment considering that the producing interests in the colony are so vitally concerned. In the present month (January) a cable message quoted New Zealand oats on Mark Lane at 22s per quarter. Now in November the following were the quotations, and in the oftho interval there could be no possibility sr so serious a fall as that intimated in the message, for at date of last detailed advices the market was firm. The prices quoted are for parcels ex ship and ex granary.

Supposing, however,' that oats should continue at present values in the local markets, viz., Is 6d per bushel, it is quite certain a very considerable proportion of the growing crop will be fed to stock. Wool and prime mutton have advanced in price, and a simple calculation will show that under present circumstances it will pay the farmer better to give oats to sheep than sell in a market at Is 6d per bushel. This price represents the value at the homestead at Is 2d, ors6farthings. Onepoundper sheep given daily, that is 71b weekly, would cost one-eighth of 56 farthings, ot exactly 2d per head per week. Rather than sell oats at this price experienced farmers will adopt the alternative, and there will not be the glut in the markets anticipated, for dairy cattle and well-bred young horses will also repay liberal keep. In explanation of the rise in price of malting barley in the Home markets the agricultural journals say the article is scarce, a large proportion of the crop throughout Europe having been more or less stained and damaged, while as a consequence of improved trade and higher rates of wages, the consumption of beer has increased considerably. The advance in values of frozen mutton and wool must greatly influence for good the financial position of runholders and farmers, the great majority of whom now own fairly well managed flocks. The results of this season’s public sales in the colony show an advance ranging from Id to 2d per lb over last year’s prices for wool, and while buyers are in agreement that the staple is lighter in condition and better got up, the vendors almost unanimously aver that the clips are much heavier. On looking over the table given below, and which will be useful for future reference, it will be seen that the price of wool in 1888 was the lowest on record. The figures are taken from Messrs Helmutb, Schwartz and Co.’s circular. IMPORTS INTO EUROPE AND AMERICA FOR THE SEASON.

Accordingto the Melbourne Leader , Australian experts give the present net value of a bale of wool in Melbourne at £ls 5s for Australian and £ls for New Zealand. But should no unforeseen or unexpected circumstances crop up, there are strong indications that a further advance in values will be secured during the progress of our local sales. As regards the frozen mutton trade, the revival of activity, stimulated by the higher prices ruling, promises continuance, provided the superiority of our exports is maintained. Very few sheep-farmers seem to be aware how closely in quality New Zealand frozen mutton is being run by that from the River Plate. In a recent London circular the subject isjthus referred to : tf On the whole the quality of New Zealand shipments haa tended to deteriorate, while the quality of River Plate sheep has tended to improve year by year. The average weight of the former has fallen away from about seventy pounds in 1883 to about fifty-six pounds, while the average weight of the latter has as steadily increased from about forty pounds to forty-five pounds.” As with grain so with our dairy products, apparently British demand and prices must be the outlook. Latest advices intimate large supplies and low prices for butter and cheese, but ordinarily in the month? when the New Zealand shipments reach the Home markets there is scarcity, and prices satisfactory to vendors.

1869. 1888. Winter wheat 10 110 Spring wheat .. 120 Barley *.15 95

France Russia Spain Austro-Hung’y Italy Germany U. Kingdom .. Roum and Bui. Tky. in Europe Belgium Servia Holland .. Portugal Greece .. Sweden & Ny... Denmark Switzerland .. Probable yield. Qrs. 38,672,000 25,781,099 16.500,000 17.188,800 15.501,000 12,000.000 10,312,001) 5,156,000 4,125,000 2,062,000 1,031,000 687.500 1,203,000 687.500 687.500 515.500 275,000 Probable Probable ini porta, exports Qrs. Qrs. 678.500 — — 9,625,000 {344,000 2,406,000 — 2,752,500 — 17,188,000 - — 1,718,500 — 155,500 1,545,000 ~ - 275,000 1,375,000 - 240.500 — 275,000 — 172.000 — 172.000 — 1,275,000 — Totals .. 152,334,000 28,532,500 12,134,000 United States .. Canada .. Chili ... .. Argentine Rep. 59,125,000 4,125,000 1,375,000 1.375,000 - 15,469,000 1,031,000 344,000 240,000 Totals .. 218,384,000 28,532,500 29,218,000 India Asia Minor Persia .. Syria, &c. 29,220.000 4,640,000 2,750,000 1,550.000 - 2,750,000 344,000 344,000 172,000 Totals .. 256,544,000 28,532,500 32,828,600 Algeria .. Egypt .. 2,574,000 1,375,000 — 515,000 275.000 Totals .. 260,493,000 28,532,500 33,618,000 Australia 3,781,000 - 172,000 Grand totals 264,274,000 28,532,500 33,790,000

1389. 1888. United States 476.000.000 415,868,000 Canada 36,000,000 30.000.C03 United Kingdom .. 75,487,000 76,761,000 Russia 'excluding Poland) 235.000,000 254,619,000 France 315,432.000 279.455,000 Germany 95.COD.OOO 105,000,000 131,747.000 Hungary 95.000,000 Austria 40.000,000 51,075,000 Italy 115,000,000 106,079.000 Spain 115,000,000 101,157,000 Roumania .. 35,000,000 40,000,000 Turkey 40,000,003 42.563,000 Belgium 16,000,000 14,876,000 Other European countries .. 30,000,000 31,808,000 India.. 213,000.000 266,882,000 Algera 25,000,000 19,862,000 Egypt 12.000,000 1*.187,000 Australasia .. 30,000,000 47,588,000 Chili, &c 25,000,000 30,000,000 Totals 2,059,527,000

New Zealand oats, per 3841b s. .. 28 d. 3, 0 to 30 d. 0 Swedish oats, per 304ib .. 17 0 to 18 0 Swedish oats, per 3201b .. 18 0 to 21 0 American oats, per 3201b .. .. 18 0 to 20 0 Russian oats, per 3041b .. 14 6 to 16 0 Russian oats, per 3201b .. 16 0 to 19 0

Year. 1888 Australasian. Bales. .315,000 Average Value per Bale £ .. 134 1887 1,207,000 14 1886 1,196,000 .. I3i 1885 1,094,000 .. 14 1884 1,112,000 .. 16 1883 1,054,000 163 1882 993,000 174 1881 957,000 174 1880 8b9,000 204 1879 026,000 164 1878 801,000 .. 18? 1877 835,000 .. 183 1876 769,000 ... 183 1875 720.000 224 1874 659,000 ... 234 1873 571,000 244 1872 554,000 .. 264