PEACE! PEACE!

Te Aroha News, Volume VII, Issue 418, 9 November 1889, Page 6

PEACE ! PEACE !

Ouii cablegrams told us the other day that the young Emperor of Germany, in his address on opening the Reichstag, said ho believed that the peoce of Europe would b e maintained. As a curious commentary on the above tho same telegram* informed us that he also said that during the coming year additional expenditure on the army and navy would be required by Germany. The day following that on which the above telegram appeared we were told by cable that Mr Gladstone, speaking ab South port, said that the Tuikish misgovern men & in Crete was a formidable source of danger to the peace of , Europe. Again the following day we were told that the cause of the Emperor of Germany's visit to tho Sultan of Turkey at Constautinopio, was to endeavour to persuade that potentate to join the triple alliance, but that in this he had failed, and that llus&ia was highly irritated at these proceedings. In contradiction to this comes Bismarck's statement that the triple alliance is purely defensive, and that the question of Stamboul was not of the smallest consequence to Germany, a hint which Russia may nob be slow to act upon. It is no doubt erne that neither of the great Powers desires war, bub it is manifest that war is in the air, and apparently very imminent, ami that a matter of vory small importance and something quite unexpected occurring might cause it to break out. It will not be too much to say that although a shot has not yet been hied nor a drop of blood spilled, yet the war has commenced— a war of preparation and vast military expenditure — the sides have been taken, the thtce against two, and the two against thiee —the tiiple alliance, that is of Germany, Austria, and Italy, against the two, France and Russia. The rulers and statesmen of these countries aie perfectly aware that thece are the sides that will be taken in the coming awful conilict, and the continually-recurring reviews r.nd military manoeuvres which are taking place, the wholesale manufacturing of weapons, the military understandings and arrangements between the different Powers, the enormous money vote demanded now by Germany for increased expenditure on her army and navy, are all in reality as much part of a campaign as the marches and countermarches which precede the final shock of armies in tho battle field. It is true that this has now been going on for years ; it is quite within the limits of possibility, though not of probability, that ib may continue for many years longer, but that the war must sooner or later eventuate, is well known and clear to all. The " St. James's Gazette" puts the inatber veiy plainly. Ib says : "It is nob the wickedness of individuals, but the tragic force of events which is responsible for the catastrophe that all dread. The interests of the notions are &o divergent that it seems to pass bhe wit of man to reconcile bhem. How can Russia abandon her drenm of extension to the Bosphorus, and how can it be fulfilled while Austria can draw a sword or spend a kreutzer bo prevent it? How can France abandon the hope of regaining her lost provinces, or how can German statesmen and strategists sleep soundly till she has abandoned it ? How can Kaiser William prate of peace until he bids his subjects lay by the burden of their panoply so long a& a great military Power rests upon his western and his eastern frontiers ? Ib is that 'cursed science geography, 1 which i& too much for the peacemakers — that, and the equally perilous inheiitance of history. Thanks to these causes, bhe coolest heads and stoutest hearts in Europe look forward to bhe eventual cubbing of bhe knob by the sword as a matter ot certainty. ' Russia's desire to possess Constantinople is a necessity which must compel her to attempt its seizure when in her opinion the Turk is sufficiently weakened to ofler a chance of success. But altogether independently of any hostile antagonism to Russia, the geographical position of Austiia would compel that Power to use its utmost endeavours to prevent the Muscovite fiom obtaining access to the sea by Constantinople. By the terms imposed by Germany on France at the close ot the war in 1870, it was openly anticipated that France would be crippled for many generations. She was as Bismarck said, "to be bled white." Never weie anticipations more erroneously conceived. She was cruelly bled, but the new blood now courting through her system has given her increased strength and energy, and as a military Power she is in a tar better position than when waning with Geimany, and in tho opinion of many a war between them now would lesult very differently to bhe last. The " Weekly Bulletin " has an article on bhe same subject under bhe heading of " The Threefold Cord. ' It allows bhab bhe triple alliance augurs well for peace, bub it goes on to say that " The fact that the tireeating nations of the Continent are arming bo the teeth, and that they now stand face to face like prize- tighter^ waiting for the signal to begin to maul each other, ought to make people wary of going too deep into loreign bonds. Let the people be advised, therefore, to put their money into bound industrial securities ab home, into gold mines of the valne of which they have information beyond suspicion, and similar investments, and not risk it in the bonds of foreign governments, which some fine morning may run down twenty points at the boom of the first cannon shot which disturbs the peace of Europe." " The London Stock Exchange and its -busine&s in foreign bonds aflords a vory g6qd indication of public opinion as regards the pioppects of peace or war on the Continent. Shortly after the weekly "Bulletin " penned and published the above article, a prominent member of the Stock Exchange, Mr H. H. Pain, sounded a note of alarm on the state of affairs on fch6 Continent, a note that we aie told " sent a .shock through the breasts of European stockholders." The "Bulletin" describes what took place as " blind unreasoning panic," and declares that war between bhe great Powers, so long as the triple alliance continues, is impossible, unless some petty state such as Servia, which aims at becoming a powerful Slav nation, should stir up the strife. That it bhe Austrian Slav population of South Hungary, Bosnia, and Herzegovina showed signs of uniting with Servia, bhen Austria would step in and occupy Servia in self-defence. According to the "Bulletin," Russia is so anxious for peace that she would under T;hese circumstances refuse to assist Servia, bub if she did give it, it would be the beginning of the end of Europe. Ib is significant and remarkable that neither the leading British nor the "European newspapers, whenever they are .waiting .upon bhe coming war, ever include Britain in their calculations. On the contrary, they take some pains to argue that ib will be clearly the true policy of Great Britain to keep entirely aloof from strife, protecting only her own interests and enforcing her protectorate over the Bosphorus and the Turks' Asiatic dominion. Ib is highly probable that the large demand made in London for the ftfoently converted New Zealand loan was in a great measure due to

the panic about continental securities which has 'ruled more or less for a long time in the London Stock Exchange. Should war break out in Europe, and Britain be fortunate enough to keep out of it, colonial investments would be greatly sought aftor, and that in a manner and in magnitude that at present is not easy of conception.