WELLINGTON TOPICS

Taihape Daily Times, 8 September 1919, Page 5

WELLINGTON TOPICS

' THE NEXT PARLIAMENT. EARLY SPECULATIONS. (Special Correspo-ndent.) ’ WELDINGTON, Sept, 5. _ Though -the exercise is necessarily a very futile one, there are a number of people about Parliament House just now spending many of their idle hours in speculating on party composition of uthe next House of Represcn'ta'tives. It is a pastime in which Reformers, Liberals, and Labourites mingle with a fine aifectation of unconcern and impartiality and reach by practically the same beaten paths widely 'difi’.erent conclusions. The Reformers. profess to be sure of a. majority, a small one perhaps, ‘but still large enough ‘to make them independent of either of ‘the other {parties and to carry their policy through Parliament without submitting to any degrading compromises. They expect ‘to lose one of the three seats they now hold in North Auckland, and two, or even three in the WellingtonTaranaki district, but they are confident of more than making up for these losses by gains in the East Coast constituencies and in Canterbury and Southland. ‘LIBERAL ANTICIPATIONS. The ‘Liberals, counting upon a large section of sane labour beinng drawn to their camp by Sir. Joseph Ward ’s raadi. cal programme, ant.icipa'te a_ somewhat larger margin than the Reformers are claiming. They ma-rk off forty-two or forty-three seats as certainties for -themselves, and two or three more for Labour candidates unpled-ged to the Social Democratic Pa-.rty_ They are not confident of recovering‘ one of the North Auckland seats under the present system of election, but they believe that they will win over four or five in the Wellington-Taranaki district, which will mean, in effect, an increase of eight’ or ten votes in the House. They expect to piclgvfupia seat in South, Auckland," to’ improve, their position, in .Otag_o, to said‘ their own in -South.lan._d,V and to lose no :more' than -two"sea_Ats in Canterbury. The sane Labour ‘support, they are anticipatinghis to come from Taranaki, Wanganui, and Auckland City. ’ LABOUR’S ASPIRATIONS. In its‘, candid moments, official Labour, the section of the «ultra-pro'-gressives, that is, controlled by the Social ‘Democratic corganisafiion, Iwil‘l, tell you it is hoping for nothing better than to hold the balance of power he ‘ tween the two othe rparties. It also; will tell you that at the moment it is more concerned about the faint-heart-ed workers Sir Joseph Ward’s “nation-alisin-g” policy may weaken in their adherence to “the cause” than they are about the other ‘timid folk who may be frightened into voting political peace at any price by Mr 3/I'assey’s fervid warnings against Bolshevism. Their estimate of the number of seats they are going to win very from twelve to twenty, but they support the larger estimate by such far~fetched as.<:imp‘tinny as the defeat of Dr. Newmtrn, Mr 'Wil*”'c‘r(: and Sir lVilliam Fraser by Labour candidates, and the ignominious rejection of sitting Labour members who haverefused to accept “the pledge.” . _r . THE DESTINIES OF PARTIES.

These conflicting anticipations——all, of course, more or less coloured by the blufi which is part of the politician’s game———&o not help one very materially in predicting what’ will happen at the .‘forth—coming election. Even after the most unbiassed analysis of the probabilities a good deal is left to the hazard of luck. With the eizisting method of voting, under which the polling must be conducted, the victory is not always to the majority, any more than the race is always to the swift, or the battle to the strong. Buifafter discounting all the estimates, with as little partiality as any of us can command, it seems probable that in the new I’-.lrlia—-ment Labour will have a greater voice than ever before in determining which of the two older parties will occupy the Treasury Benches. Perhaps it is this contiingency the R-‘efornr {newspapers have in View when they hint at the revival of the coalition as the only safeguard against the perils of Revolution. ary Socialism.