WHEN THE WALLS WILL FALL.

Taihape Daily Times, Volume 8, Issue 87, 11 April 1916, Page 3

WHEN THE WALLS WILL FALL.

A DISPASSIONATE STUDY OF GERMANY'S CHANCES.

Mr. Frederick Palmer ~the famous war correspondent, contributes to "Collier's Weekly" under the title of "Is Germany Wanning?" one of the most striking and lucid articles on the* past, present, and future of the great war that have appeared in any American publication. Here are a few of the points he makes in his long and notable article: "Germany must be winning," says the wise neutral, thinking of the hordes of prisoners Germany lias taken, and with his dispassionate eye on the map. But in this war the map is the greatest liar in the world. For Germ-

any is not winning. Tile map is a liar unless it covers the whole world and includes the seas and continents.

England came in—and Germany knew that she had lost. But she could not stop her legions; she must go en, making the best of a bad bargain. Bear in mind, victorious Germany, ever since August 4, has been fighting for eounter.s with which ,to gain peace, and hopefully a peace thar will leave her strong enough to step between France and Russia uer eld enem.y, Engand, at some future time.

Germany realises that with, guns and men enough the western line can be broken. And she realises that if the Russians come in with their new forces In the spring .she'may not be able to spare the necessary reserves to resist an attack In the west.

When the Germans ask for peace they serve notice on the Allies thn+ they are exhausted. The Allies will answer: "We are going to let you stew for another year."

"Is Germany winning with probably 1,500,000 men dead or crippled for life? Is she Avinning when she does not know how she is going to force peace? Can she win if she cannct continue her offensive when spring comes? Can she win If she must accept the defensive?

Consider this war of about twenty rounds, Germany trying for a knockout in the first five. Having failed, many thought her offensive was over. But it was not. She was still taking the initiative in the tenth round. This winter brings us past the tenth round, and spring will show us the fifteenth. It will be ■ th e nineteenth round, perhaps the twentieth rcimd itself, that will tell.

England's new munition factories have only begun to supply shells. The maximum American and Japanese out-

put will not be reached until February or March. "With spring the Affies, for the first time, will have a real superiority in guns, material, and men on the fighting line/'

I Germany probably still has 4.000,000 fighting men and Austria 3,000,000. France must have close to 4,000,000, England more than 2.ooo,ooo'and RusI sia 3,000,000 not counting her unorganised reserve. Thus the Allies have a superiority equivalent to the British New Army. If Germany is going to continue her offensive, where can she strike? Can she undertake another offensive against Russia when in May the French cover all the front-line trenches In the west with shells and undertake an -offensive five times the.artillery power of Champagne and Loos? To win, Germany must beat the immense Jiew British Army. She must beat the 1917 class of recruits which •in November France had not yet called to the She must win in some kind of a decisive victory at arms —or lose; must succeed in wearing down the Allies' resources and men by attrition instead of the Allies wearing down hers.

Suppose that all next spring and summer Germany throws herself against those ;lines of steel in vain. Suppose that a line of steel is across her path in the Balkans as well as In Flanders and in Russia; for if she extends her lines m Seryia and Bulgaria she needs correspondingly more men to keep them intact.

. Supose that, Instead of being able to takt-. the oeffnsive, she uses her magnificent railroad system for rushing bodies of troops here and there in order to halt the offensive of the Allies—what will be the effect then upon German sentiment? What would have been the effect on Japanese sentiment if the Russians had held out for another year nad let the Japanese stew in front of their army? When Lord Kitchener told the Ministers of the British Cabinet that the war would be long they were sceptical. But now they know that he knew what he was talking about. "He counted upon winning the last battle." That is the battle that England has always had to win, and usually has Avon.

You may be sure the amazing brain

trust whicli governs Germany, whicla.

knows how to inflame the emotions of its own people to its purpose, widen unites great military leading with very skilful statecraft, is never going to give the world a sign that sh e is losing. The one chance that Germany has of winning is the chance that gave Japan victory. Though beaten, she may keep her secrets so close, conceal her wounds so well, that s h e will give the appearance of victory and deceive her enemies into compromise. But if the Allies keep on for another eighteen months, and if they hold together, there is no doubt that Germany will be beaten.

"And if their money lasts! Watch and see if it doesn't. The Allied troops may never cross the Rhine; none of them may again enter East Prussia. But it will be Germany that will have to sue for term s because she is in a state of siege."

The British hold the sea. They have the superiority in DreadnougK ana battle-cruisers whose guns can smash anything above water. The methods they used in holding down the submarine campaign in the North Sea ought also to serve, in the Mediterranean.

Germany is in the position of a man who strikes for want of air, for want of room. He lunges this way and that with the craving for breath for his lungs and spac e for his limbs. He pushes the wall back a little, but it

is still there, dashing hi s own blood back into his face. He breaks through one door, but there is another beyond. The mental strain of such a battle is as severe as the physical. Next summer, if Russia comes back strong, and Turkey and Bulgaria are tamed, the walls will begin to fall in on the Germans. Why pay dearly for Baking Powder when SHARLAND'S—the best that can be produced—costs less- than others? Ask your grocer.

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