LONG AND COSTLY.

Taihape Daily Times, Volume 8, Issue 30, 5 February 1916, Page 7

LONG AND COSTLY.

THE PRICE OP VICTORY-

BIG WORK AHEAD.

ALLIES WANT LONG WAR

(By AUSTIN HARRISON, Editor "English Review.")

Crushing victories have become well-nigh unattainable, in view of the masses concerned, the tactical impossibility of rounding up a retreating army and the modern power of guns. There can be no speedy results and so no immediate rewards.

Looking at the whole 'situation in the cold light of fact, we can say this: If the offensive superiority still rests with the Germans, the psychological superiority which finally alone leads to success hangs unquestionably on the will of the Allies. It is thus a problem of the will to win; in other words, endurance. The issue of the war will depend on that one quality, and the side capable of most endurance will win. It is here that the Allies have to prove themselves worthy of the nobility of their cause; it is here, too, that just appreciation of the German war spirit is indispensable to the Allied success. No greater' mistake could be made than to imagine that the goal is in sight; that the Germans are approaching the end of their tether, either in men, material, or determination; that their philosophy of war will fail them. None of these things are true. estimated that every fifteenth man was a good fighting man; indeed, the Germans have frequently fought up to that ratio. It is capable of enormous expansion. MATTER OF RATIO.

If the Germans are driven into their own territory, on the one side or the other, they may be expected to fight on a ratio of every twelfth or even tenth male. Sooner than yield their soil, they are as likely as not to mobilise almost the entire male population, from boys of fourteen upward. War carried into German soil would give the Germans the-moral faith they have thrown away. To every German the Fatherland means something sacred. He will fight for it, to a man. To anticipate anything in the n'ature of a collapse of morale is to misinterpret the German spirit. If we are to beat the Germans — and failure to secure the conditions necessary to civilisation would amount to a negative victory, leading inevitably to the resumption of the war a,s no very future date —the Allies will have to destroy their armies, amounting eventually to some ten million men; will have to crush a spirit of war never before known in history. That is the military prospect before us. To deceive ourselves is simply to court failure.

No doubt, about Easter time, a truce could be arranged, leaving Germany virtually intact, which would moan failure on the part of the Allies. To obtain the terms we desire, the German armies will have to be bled to death; 'as Bismarck said of the next Avar with France, it would be a case 'of "saigner a blanc.'" NUMBERS PREVAIL. The Germans will fight till exhaustion lays the male fighting forces of the Empire prostrate. Militarily, then the war can only be said to have begun. As it s motive was the armed conquest of Western Europe by the Germans, so it will only end with the exhaustion of the German armies. To bring about that decision we, and the Allies, will need, all our energies and all our available material, and this applies in particular case to England. In all probability, we shall have'to resort to conscription. The sooner the better. On the western side the Allies have so to contain the Germans that the Russians can by force of numbers and tenacity penetrate into Austria and Germany. Once in Germany, decisions say be expected,.

Germany is, strategically, the most suitable country in Europe for the movement of troops and the conduct of an energetic war, 'and it is for that reason that the Germans are fighting the Russians in Poland. B'ut the wastage of a war of this kind will be terrible. Only numbers will prevail, backed up by unconquerable endurance. As the result of five months of war, that is the situation and its prospects. If we may look upon it with confidence, it behoves us als© to understand it. GO DOWN FIGHTING. And we may be confident. If at the end of another six months the military situation remains much the same, by exactly so much, politically, is our victory the surer. Indeed, the longer the war, the greater will be the fruits of victory. It will take a long time to beat the Germans; it will demand an enormous effort on our part, and it will only be accomplished through the united, concentrated violence of all the Allies. We have but to hold together for a year, for two, for three years, it may be, and we shall win. For all the latent elements of success are with us, added to which we have morality. Though the Germans will fight, and will go down fighting as no face ever before recorded in history, they cannot, as we can, fight indefinitely; they have no God in their treasury, no glory in their hate, for they are at best only "running their chances."