HINTS ON AUCTION BRIDGE

Sun (Auckland), Volume III, Issue 696, 22 June 1929, Page 27

HINTS ON AUCTION BRIDGE

Judgment In Bidding

(Ky " Caliban'* in the •‘Nation and Atheneeum”—Through the Courtesy of the Publisher^ IN a recently played rubber, of which. I was a spectator, the following bidding occurred: — Score: Game all, love all. A (dealer), One No-Trump; Y, No Bid; B, No Bid. Z's hand was as follows: — Spades A K Hearts A K Diamonds KJIO 83 2 Clubs QJ 9 He called Two No-Trumps, and all passed. The distribution of the cards

Clubs Q J 9 It is, of course, immediately obvious that Z’s call must jfce defeated. A led the Queen df Hearts, followed by the Knave at trivk 3, and in the end ZY lost three tricks in Hearts, two in Diamonds, and two in Clubs—a total of 100 points. ‘‘A very disappointing result, partner,'' said Z; ft l didn't expect much from you, but if you had had only the Queen of Diamonds, we went game and rub oer easily. ' 9 * * Personally, 9 7 answered Y, **l think it would have been better to double A's No-Trump. We then play the hand in Spades, and, as far as I can see, make our contract.'' “Why not Diamonds," broke in B. '‘Anything else, as the result shows, is bound to be a gamble, but in Diamonds you are bound to do well. I'm not certain that J. shouldn't have called four"(!) “What would you have called?" someone asked me. It was then that I dropped my little bombshell. “I," I said, “should have passed." “Passed—how could you, with such a hand as Z's?" “Well, let me explain." It is an elaboration of my argument which I offer here. Z, it seems to me, has five possible calls open to him: (1) Double; (2) Two Diamonds; (3) Three Diamonds; (4) Two No-Trumps; (5) No. Bid. (Four Diamonds I dismiss as ridiculous—it is almost certain to fail.) Bet us analyse and compare the probable consequences of each. In doing this, we must forget that we know the contents of any hand but Z's. (1) Double.—The probability is that A's No-Trumper consists of allround strength, with length in a major suit, or of a very long Club suit with two or three cards of entry. We may assume that hia holding includes the Ace, King of Clubs and the Ace of Diamonds, with (almost certainly) “stoppers" in both the major suits. He is unlikely, in either case, to interfere with Z's double. Now Y's longest suit is probably Hearts or Spades. In either of these Z can offer good support, but it is most unlikely that YZ can go game. For A's hand, as we have jusrt seen, is pretty sur© to be worth four tricks against any call that YZ can make, other than a call in Diamonds. (2) Two Diamonds. (3) Three Diamonds.—A call in Diamonds is pretty certain to “come off," and if Y has the Queen of Diamonds, together with either the King of Clubs or a singleton Club, ZY will make five tricks and the game. But the odds against this possibility are considerable. A Three-Diamond call is perhaps to be preferred, as preventing A or B from showing a major suit in which—conceivably—they could go game. On the other hand, the odds against their holding such a suit are, again, very large. As between Two Diamonds and Three Diamonds, then, there is little to choose, but neither can be called a game-winning possibility. (4) Two No-Trumps.—This, in some ways the most attractive bid, is also the most risky. Z's “if"—that if Y holds the Queen of Diamonds he goes game—is a formidable one; he is banking on a chance that cannot be mathematically evaluated, but that is of fciie order of ten to one against him. His loss of 100 points is therefore not at all “unlucky"; he might well have lost 150.

(5) No Bid.—ZY's chance of winning a game is, we have seen, verv *mall. If, then, they can count on defeating AB by two tricks, they wiil expect to do better that way than any other. And they can reasonably hope to do at least as well as this. Whatever is led, AB cannot go game; and A can only make his contract if he has a long Club suit (six or more) and both Ace and Queen of Diamonds. The odds against this distribution are sufficient, in my opinion, to justify Z in preferring No Bid to any other call. His expectation (in the mathematical sense) is 100 (or more) if he passes; 21 below, and honours, if he calls Diamonds; 16 or 18 below if he doubles A's bid of One No-Trump; and a loss of, say, 100 if he calls Two No-Trumps. He should, therefore, as it seems to me, say No Bid.