The Sun 42 WYNDHAM STREET, AUCKLAND MONDAY, MAY 20, 1929 LABOUR’S PROSPECTS AT HOME

Sun (Auckland), Volume III, Issue 667, 20 May 1929, Page 8

The Sun 42 WYNDHAM STREET, AUCKLAND MONDAY, MAY 20, 1929 LABOUR’S PROSPECTS AT HOME

SO far, three definite and extremely confident predictions have rung out from all the tumult and the shouting in the British Parliamentary elections campaign. These are: (1) the Conservatives cannot lose; (2) Labour is bound to win aud rule with its first effective majority; and (3) the Liberals are certain to conquer the country with a sensational victory. The prophets, of course, are partisans, each content with reading his own party’s horoscope and seeing only the bright side of political fate. Since all are equally confident it is clear that there are more jests in the electoral battle than the most excellent one observed by Mr. J. L. Garvin in the “Observer : the jest of the election is the millions of women who are asking the men how to vote and the millions of men who cannot tell them. It is almost certain that such changes in electoral opinion as may be recorded at the poll on the thirtieth day of this month will have been influenced by the supreme question of unemployment. Chronic and expensive unemployment admittedly is the acid test for the three parties, and the one with the most promising programme of relief works should gain the greatest measure of public support. If the test should work out in that way, then the Liberals will win, for, as everybody knows, their Leader, like Sir Joseph Ward in this country, has not been backward at making skyscraping promises. On the test question of unemployment the attitude of each party has been described fairly in these words: “The Conservatives promise to hold up their hands over it with the endurance of Moses, hoping and praying for its relief by natural causes. Socialism promises to reduce it if possible, but in any case to subsidise it freely at the expense of the direct taxpayer. Mr. Lloyd George promises out and out to cure it, to effect, that is, a dazzling removal of all its worst aspects within two years, without costing the taxpayer one Even a casual glance at those promises shows at once that this country does not enjoy an exclusive monopoly of Liberal political magic. As financial conjurers and promise-makers Mr. Lloyd George and Sir Joseph Ward are as Tweedledum and Tweedledee. A survey of British opinion on party prospects at the forthcoming poll shows that the majority of commentators are convinced that Toryism is doomed to a crushing defeat. Further than that prediction, however, no one, except the super-optimists in each of the other rival parties, will go, though here and there prophets incline toward anticipating a marked revival of Liberalism. Labour is more confident of success than it has ever been in its long career of uphill fighting. It bases its confidence on the results of the 67 by-elections since the overwhelming Conservative triumph five years ago, when Mr. Baldwin was returned with a Parliamentary strength of 413 members, as against 151 Labour representatives and 40 Liberals, eleven others being odd brands. Today, the Conservatives are down to 397 members, while Labour musters 163 and the Liberals 44.. The drift of public opinion against the Amiable Party in power has been ominous, though the Conservatives still stoutly assert that there is no cause for panic in their ranks. Now, however, Labour’s official newspaper exuberantly predicts great victories on all fronts where they engage the mixed enemy. It counts on triumph in Scotland and Wales, also in the industrial North and Midlands. Moreover, it asserts with jubilation that the great Tory stronghold in Liverpool is cracking to its foundations, while in Birmingham the long reign of the Chamberlains is about to end. This is the right kind of optimism to exercise before an election, but it does not always follow that the spirit of triumph will dominate the electors. Still, Labour’s prospects are better than they have ever been, and it is possible that the party will squeeze home. But many people will “hae their doots.” The Labour programme does not glitter, and it contains some political barbs. Meanwhile, a rainbow of Liberal promises with the proverbial crock of gold at its end is arched picturesquely over the kingdom.