Bright Outlook

Sun (Auckland), Volume II, Issue 483, 12 October 1928, Page 1

Bright Outlook

“PROSPERITY LIES BEFORE US”

Chambers of Commerce Optimistic

(Special to THE SUN)

T, r „ ~ . . WELLINGTON, To-day. . outlook is particularly bright, and if the resources of the Dominion are husbanded and used .wisely, a period of sound prosperity lies before us,” was the optimistic prophecy of Mr. D. J. McGowan, president of the New Zealand Associated Chambers of Commerce, which began the annual conference to-day.

oinio.? 61 th f lt in no year since the declaration of peace have we felt in a oT’.t'ri 1 hap ‘ ,ier with the prospect ° “S' B than we do to-day," he said. f„.l'“i hOSC ..S e ' etfates at the !ast concleSr h ,n C hrlst 9 hurch - it was made fi®“L, by . ‘he retiring president that the Dominion was emerging from the state of depression which had ruled for some year or two previously. It has been made clear during the present year that the opinion then expressed was not unduly optimistic. In support of that contention I propose to quote some figures which, takten in combination, prove that we are met to-day under happier trading conditions. Evidently the lesson of economy has been learnt; at least for the tirpe being. One can only express the hope that it will not be too soon forgotten. BANKING “The figures of the banking statistics form very good reading. Taking them for the quarter ended June, 1924, we find that in only one year (1927) did the advances by the banks exceed the deposits. The following analysis is worthy of your attention. I will quote the amounts in millions and hundred thousands: Excess. £, For the quarter ending June. 1924, deposits amounted to 5,300,000 For quarter ending June, 1925 6,200,000 For quarter ending June, 1926 3,600,000 “For the quarter ending June, 1927, excess advances were £1,400,000. The tide then turned, and we find that in June last the amount of deposits exceeded the advances by the magnificent sum of £9,750,000. “In the face of this satisfactory position the Associated Banks could hardly keep up the rate for overdrafts at 7 per cent., and on July 9 last, this was brought back to 6£ per cent. The banks can exercise great influence on the financial position of the Dominion and I think It is right that they are and should be free to exercise that influence without pressure or dictate from any Governmental authority. TARIFF REVISION “It is as yet somewhat difficult to give full statistical evidence of the favourable effect upon British trade of the recent tariff revision. Adjust-

ments to new conditions are not spontaneous and immediate, and tend to bo affected by other factors in the general economic situation. The restriction of purchasir* which has been a feature of New Zealand’s trade during the first half of the present year, has obscured the situation somewhat, and it is only with the resumption of normal conditions that the effect of the tariff revision will be clearly brought out. Moreover, certain changes which should prove most beneficial in stimulating impouts of British manufactures have been operating only from July last. “It must be borne in mind, in the first place, that during recent years there has been, despite fluctuations, a fairly steady decrease in the share of New Zealand’s import trade secured by the United Kingdom. Thus, in 1922 the United Kingdom secured 52.35 per cent., in 1923 51.9 per cent., in 1924 47.5 per cent., in 1925 48.71 per cent., in 1926 45.6 per 'cent., in 1927 47.9 per cent. In the first half of 1928 there was a further fall to 46.3 per cent. But for the factors referred to above, this result could not but be regarded as disappointing, even though it is incontestable that, but for fhe favourable revision of the tariff, the diminution would have been even more marked. “With the increase in imports, which has recently taken place, more normal conditions are likely to prevail, and a more reliable index to the result of the tariff revision will, therefore, be forthcoming. It is, therefore, most satisfactory to note that out of the imports totalling £3,666,276 in July, the United Ifingdom contribute 54.2 per cent., and out of £4,311,777 in August, she claimed 50.9 nor. cent. “As a result of this movement, the share of the import trade of New Zealand obtained by the United Kingdom during the first eight months of the year rose to 48 per cent., as compared with per cent, for the calendar year 1927,' while the continuance of this trend should result in a substantial increase in the percentage for the current year. With British manufacturers becoming increasingly alive to the great possibilities of the market open for them, in this Dominion, one may reasonably anticipate a much more substantial improvement next year.’*