World’s Beef Resources

Sun (Auckland), Volume I, Issue 306, 17 March 1928, Page 29

World’s Beef Resources

U.S.A.’S DECLINING SURPLUS

Shortage Predicted

LESS than twelve months ago the opinion was fairly general that New Zealand’s beef industry was in a particularly sorry position. Low prices, it was contended, made breeding unprofitable. Ilill country pastures were beginning, it was said, to suffer from lack of cattle. A healthier tone prevails to-day, but, even so, many conflicting opinions are abroad regarding the future of the world’s beef market. Viewed generally, however, it appears that there is little likelihood of the demand for beef weakening in the near future. All indications are for a greater demand. From what sources this demand is to be satisfied is the question causing speculation in many quarters.

TTNLESS production is increased some authorities reckon Australia will have no exportable surplus of cattle within the next 10 to 15 years. The industry there has certainly suffered a big set-back over the past decade, and. while the foregoing prophecy may be rather drastic, with the increase in population in that country there is certainly a trend toward a falling off of exports. Again, take U.S.A., until a few years ago one of the world’s biggest beef producing countries. Official statistics show that, while the population there has increased by approximately 25,000,000 over the past quarter of a century, the total number of meat producing animals—cattle, sheep, pigs—has decreased about 14,000,000 head. Everything points to U.S.A. becoming a bigger and bigger importer of meat. Already increasing demands are being made on Canada’s surplus cattle.

Canada to a lesser extent registers a similar trend. Export returns of that country show a decided falling off, and soon U.S.A. importers will seek in vain in that quarter. Thus there comes the question of where U.S.A. is to get sufficient mean for local consumption. As the moment Argentine is not favoured on account of the foot-and-mouth disease. It is quite on the cards that restrictions regarding the Importation of meat from the Argentine into U.S.A. will be tightened as a result of this disease. Generally, throughout the world, there seems to have been a decrease in the size of the cattle herds in comparison to the increase in population over the past quarter of a century. One of the main reasons for the decline is undoubtedly the fact that producers have not been getting encouraging returns. “The relationship of the world’s beef supplies to normal requirements has been receiving much attention of late,” states the Glasgow “Herald” of Jan-

uary 4. “Sir William Haldane has surveyed the subject from the standpoint of the home producer of beef cattle, and has expressed the hope that at the end of the meat war, which was waged by rival Argentine interests during the last two years, may lead to more satisfactory conditions in the home market.” “There is certainly evidence in North America of diminished cattle stocks,” continued the Scottish journal. “The ratio of supply to demand in that part of the world, of course, has been dwindling for some time. This natural development was foreseen years ago by the enterprising packers of Chicago, and it was the change in the centre of gravity of the export trade which led the American meat kings to invade Argentina and organise trading from that source.” While New Zealand can never be a big factor in the world’s beef markets

(this country, with 3,257,729 cattle, holds 28th place on the list of the world’s cattle grazing countries, against such countries as British India 120,340,000 head, Soviet Russia 63,000,000, U.S.A. 57,251,000, Argentine 37,064,550, and Australia 13,279,785), it certainly makes interesting reading for the promary producer to know that he is supplying a short market. He is then assured, at least, of firm to increasing prices in the near future. The biggest move, if there is to be one toward increasing supplies, will undoubtedly come from South America and Australia, and it only requires prices to improve slightly or even to show that they will remain steady at present levels for breeders in those countries to set their herds in order and cater for the new conditions. It is certainly heartening to realise that the meat industry is not dead and that, with the higher standard of living in practically every country in the world, the demand for meat should tend rather to increase than fall away.