The Stratford Evening Post WITH WHICH IS INCORPORATED THE EGMONT SETTLER MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 4, 1916. DURATION OF THE WAR.

Stratford Evening Post, Volume XXXI, Issue 31, 4 September 1916, Page 4

The Stratford Evening Post WITH WHICH IS INCORPORATED THE EGMONT SETTLER MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 4, 1916. DURATION OF THE WAR.

The very thorough manner in which Roumania has taken up the burden of conflict since she resolved to come actively into the alliance against Germanism and the horrors which accompany it, and the assertion of Greece's! true spirit by the dethronement of a monarch who could see nothing but through German eyes, are two events of great importance, because they will undoubtedly have, some effect on the duration of hostilities. Neverthe-j less the time has not yet come for any one of the Allies to relax in ef-: fort, but rather to make greater determination for sacrifice in order to ; secure, complete victory. At the end of July Mr J. L. Garvin, the wellknown English writer, reviewing the two-year war period, gave an outline of the trend of thought at Home m [ to the probable length of the contest. It is absolutely assumed by all the i Allied nations, he said, that they are

much more than half-way through their task, that less than twelvemonths, indeed, will bring them to the achievement of their purposes. There, are two kinds of optimism, the eager and tho sober. The former we may' briefly examine. It chiefly affects financial and commercial circles, but not, perhaps, the very highest author-J ities in those circles. Its devotees, have been curiously out in all their estimates from the beginning. They have an irrepressible vision of speedy; success. But the- general public of! Britain does not believe that the, struggle will be over in three or four' months, indeed, no really well-in-, formed and responsible mind banks on that assumption. Nevertheless/ the unlikely is not the impossible. It' is not altogether in the region of the unthinkable that the war should come to a sudden close by December with | the complete victory of the Allies. | There is a great chance that both Austria and Turkey may collapse in the near future, thus placing Germany in real peril. It is admitted that Aus-j tria is strained well nigh to exhaustion, moral and physical. In both halves of the dual monarchy the dream of conquest is gone for ever. It is not at present likely that Russia, during the next few months, will ( attempt to force the Carpathians once more and to strike directly into Hungary. There is too much yet to be conquered and consolidated by General Brusiloii's armies. Referring especially to what has now happened, bul was in July merely a probability, vi«: tho entry of Roumania into the conflict, Mr Garvin adds: But one new encounter might transform the whole question. That factor is, of course, j the intervention of Roumania. If that occurred by the middle of autumn, as is possible, Austria would be attacked

from the south-east by a million men, including General San-ail's force, and new Russian contingents as. well as the Roumanian army. We think that stroke would necessarily be fatal to' the whole Central League. The K:ipsburg monarchy would lie ruined. The Magyars would try to make a separate pence lest it might be the worse for them. Greece would come in with the Allies. There would be an overturn in Bulgaria, The situation in the Ottoman Empire would be quite hopeless. There might be nothing for it but to admit the Allies to the occupation of .Constantinople and the free navigation of the straits and the' Black Sea. Serbia would be restored and despite all that race has suffered how rapidly its present little army of vengeance would grow. As for Germany, she would soon be cut off from tho Danubian granaries and stockruns as completely as from overseas supplies. There would be no escaping the doom. A general peace in. Eu-j rope might be reached at the expense of Austria, and her present motly etn-i pire, just about Christmas. It is an attractive hypothesis, and there is, no doubt, just a bare possibility thatit might be realised. Nevertheless, the Governments of the Allies put it aside as too good to he true. Those of us who might be called the more sober optimists believe that the course of victory will eventually include all the contingencies mentioned, but that the process will be longer and wider. They still think that the main thing is to make thorough preparation for the more stubborn event. That is why the preparations are being continued on such a vast scale. The actual fightin<r mav well last the three years, or perhaps just a little longer It M assumed, however, even by those who, have never been carried away by overconfidence or misled by too facile impressions that the total overthrow of ( the Central League will be accom-. nlished in about twelve months, more or less, but probably less The enemy's reserves may possibly last six months. It is not thought that they: will last longer. , j