THE WAR.

Stratford Evening Post, Volume XXX, Issue 2, 5 April 1916, Page 5

THE WAR.

A VISIT TO VERDUN. 10LONEL REPINCTON HOBNOBS WITH GENERALS. CONTRABAND SEARCHING. BRITAIN’S REPLY TO U.S.A. THE SUBMARINE MENAGE. ZEPPELINS. ■ CURRENT WAR TOPICS. Many people have been so much inclined to look upon Colonel Repington, the military authority, of The Times, as a pessimist of the first line, that it will do them great good to read to-day’s cable giving his views of the position after a visit to Verdun. The- Colonel appears to have come back from his visit to General Jotfro full of the enthusiasm which has been a remarkable feature of the reports of the French Generals for the past month or more. The strength of the enemy at Verdun was thirty divisions, with thirty-four divisions along tip front facing the British, and from the position it was not clear to the Colonel whether the Germans were preparing for 'an attack on the Brit - ish or for defence against their offensive. That Verdun was expected to fall in four days does nqt surprise those who have followed the progress and the determined nature of the enemy’s assaults. The superiority of the French artillery and their ainvork particularly struck the Colonel, and as the reason for the Verdun front being carpeted with Gorman dead and guns he says it was an attempt to save the Crown Prince from failure.

Nearly two months ago, before the

Verdun affair began, summaries of three estimates of Germany’s losses were cabled from Britain. One was by “The Times” military correspondent, Colonel Repington, one by Mr Hilaire Belloc, and one by the British War Office. All were based to a large extent upon the German official statements of their losses, though very different inferences were drawn from these, and the totals arrived at differed' correspondingly. The lowest total was that of the War Office, which seems to have struck pretty closely to the German figures. The highest was that of Mr Belloc, who, added another million. in between, but pretty close to the War Office figures, came Colonel Repington. Mr Belloc believed that by the end of November Germany had lost about 3,500,000 men. Colonel Repington’s estimate is 2,700,000. He also, disagreeing again with Mr Belloc’s figures, estimates that Germany may have still another 2.000.000 men in reserve, and until all these have been used up, the strength of the German armies will not begin to fail.

Colonel Ropington reasoned that Germany lost by the end of November no move than 2,700,000 men, and that she may have had then some 2,000,000 remaining in reserve. This is reasonable, and tits in with the circumstances of the Verdun attack, for Germany would hardly venture to spend so many thousands of men upon so slight ’ .... .. 1 s*s

a chance unless she still had fairly considerable resources. Colonel iiepington think - I’’at when the war began she had about 13.000,06./ men be* tween the ages of 18 and 45. lor various reasons four millions of these could not be made available for warpurposes, so that there were about nine millions to be called to the colors. Tiro aggregate establishment of the German'army being about 3,600,000, it would begin the war with some 5.400.000 in reserve. But how many <if those have been already used up? Germany admits to 2,600,000 casualties for the first 18 months; can her figures be trusted? Up to a point, Colonel Rcpington thinks. “They are often belated, but so arc ours. They contain many errors, subsequently rectified, but so do our. They contain the names of only some men who have died of sickness, probably, and omit altogether, as do ours, the names of men invalided, and the floating population of hospitals and sanatoria. There are some who distrust these lists profoundly because dead found by us often cannot be traced m the returns, and because the previously wounded amongst our prisoners have no mention sometimes. There are the elements for a charge of wilful deception, but, on the whole, considering the immense difficulty of rendering accurate statistics, the charge is not made out.” In order to arrive at the net waste, Colonel Repington cuts the German estimate of wounded who can fight again from 84 per cent, down to 50, which means 790,000, Deducting that from the total losses, and adding 630.000 invalided and 150,000 sick in hospital, he arrives at a net loss •of 1 nearly 2,600.000, or a monthly loss of a little over 144,000 men. Obviously, even if these figures are increased a little, and large deductions made on account of the proportion which has to be left in the interior of Germany, she must still have at least two millions left in reserve.