The Southland Times THURSDAY, OCTOBER 8, 1942. The Eighty Days

Southland Times, Issue 24869, 8 October 1942, Page 4

The Southland Times THURSDAY, OCTOBER 8, 1942. The Eighty Days

THE EIGHTY days from July 18, which the British Minister of Production predicted would be “some of the gravest ever faced,” are now over. Of course his estimate of the war’s most critical period may prove to have been no sounder than many others. Within the last few days Mr Curtin has spoken of the next six months as a critical time for Australia, and Mr Fraser has warned this country to steel itself for the next 12 months, which evidently Washington regards as the crisis of the war. Compared with these two periods, 80 days is a very short time indeed; but Mr Oliver Lyttelton has confessed to great relief that.it has safely passed. “No one,” he is reported to have said, “would wish to live those 80 days again.” The period since July 18 has certainly seen a distinct change for the better in the progress of the war, but how significant or important is this change it is still too early to tell. When Mr Lyttelton made his prediction the German offensive in southern Russia was in full swing and the Russians were moving back steadily. Rostov was soon to fall, and the enemy was to push rapidly on to the points at which he is being held today—Stalingrad and Mosdok. But there was then no certainty that he would be held at all, or that the Red Army could escape destruction. In Egypt the situation of the Eighth Army was at its lowest ebb: the British forces had been pushed back to El Alamein, where they were hastily regrouped and awaited what might well have been a decisive blow against Alexandria. The last 80 days have seen their position gradually strengthened until within recent weeks they have regained a limited initiative. According to General Sir Harold Alexander, the new com-mander-in-chief, Middle East (who must surely be aware of the perils of over-optimistic talk), “the time is past when we had to fight a firstclass enemy with inadequate equipment and inadequate training- from now on we have all the equipment we require.” These words surely justify a more confident view of the situation in the Middle East. In the Pacific, also, the position of the Allies seems a good deal brighter than it was three months ago. Japan’s naval losses have given her an undoubted set-back; she is beginning to feel the strength of Allied air power round the whole perimeter of her empire; and on land she is at the moment falling back before Allied troops for the first time since the outbreak of the Pacific war. In the air, in the European theatre, the Royal Air Force is not only maintaining, but is increasing, its superiority, and the United States Army Air Corps has made an auspicious entry by carrying out highly successful daylight homing raids over France. On the sea, the heavy rate of shipping losses of July and August has been checked, and although the position is by no means good it does seem to be improving. Russia's Sacrifice

A sudden set-back within the next few weeks could, of course, bring about a considerable change in this more cheerful picture. The fall of Stalingrad might not in itself be a vital loss, but if it was accompanied by the destruction of a large part of the Red Army or by ominous signs of distress among the civilian population the outlook would at once become darker. Mr Wendell Willkie has recently called attention to the severity of the Soviet’s losses. In 15 months of fighting she has lost 5,000,000 casualties, substantially more than the whole of the British Empire’s losses during the 51 months of the last war. Russia has lost at least 60,000,000 civilians with the territories now occupied by the Germans; she has lost large proportions of her industries, her raw materials and her food. “Food in Russia will be scarce this winter,” said Mr Willkie, “and fuel little known in millions of homes. Clothing is also scarce, and many vital medical supplies just do not exist. The Soviet people will have to exert almost superhuman efforts to maintain their resistance in face of such hardships. So far there are no signs of distress, and the defence of Stalingrad has become one of the epic battles of all time. If the Russians can hold out till the winter—even if they lose Stalingrad-—and still retain some of their offensive power, the last 80 days may well be seen in retrospect as the real crisis of the war. For in the spring the Allies will be immensely stronger and the second front should have become a practical possibility. Whether the war moves from that point steadily towards its end, or whether it drags on perhaps for years, may well depend on the condition of the Red Army in the spring. Will it have been forced to the defensive, or will it be reinvigorated and able to hit hard? That has become the major question overhanging Allied strategy for the future. It is important that Japan should be contained in the Pacific; it is important that the Allied base in Egypt should be made secure. But a continuation of Russian resistance is vital if the enemy is to be defeated within a foreseeable time. Even if the Soviet holds out, a vast effort lies ahead of the United Nations before they can achieve a sufficient superiority of material to overwhelm the enemy on the wide fronts of a global war. The British Minister of Production recognizes this fact when he declares that although the war may be entering a better phase it is necessary “to redouble our work in all parts of the war machine.” The next phase, in the coming winter, will be a production race between the Axis and the United Nations. And it is as well to remember the gigantic size of the Allies’ task. They have to out-produce, not Germany alone, but Germany, Italy and Japan, together with German-occupied Europe. The industrial strength of the United States should ensure an Allied victory. But no one is entitled to take that victory for granted. It will be won only if every individual contributes to it with all his power and all his heart.