The Southland Times PUBLISHED EVERY MORNING. Luceo Non Uro. SATURDAY, JUNE 5, 1920. WHEAT PRODUCTION.

Southland Times, Issue 18840, 5 June 1920, Page 4

The Southland Times PUBLISHED EVERY MORNING. Luceo Non Uro. SATURDAY, JUNE 5, 1920. WHEAT PRODUCTION.

A few days ago we referred to (he fact that the world is faced with the certainty of a wheat shortage, and we remarked that it looked as if wheat would be a good crop for the New Zealand farmer in 1920. It is of course a regrettable fact that wheat prodlurtion in the dominion has been declining steadily with the years, and the year 1919-20 was probably the poorest year, both in acreage sown in wheat and the total return for many years. The effect and the extent of this reduction can be seen in the following table covering the past eleven years:—

The dominion requires for its own uses about 7.000.000 bushels and it is hoped that with the 2.000,000 bushels of Australian wheat, imported this year and the small hold over that supply in the country will bo adequate, but the practical failure of the harvest, in Australia will alter the position entirely for the coming year, anti the Minister of Agriculture is getting a little anxious about the position. In the usual run price fixing does not work in the direction of in creased production and the government has evidently recognised this because it has not “fixed'' the price for wheat, but has guaranteed minimum prices, with an adjustment according to the market value at the time. As a matter of business the wheat farmer lias an attractive looking market awaiting him, and the position may be even better than he at present thinks. It must he remembered that market value in New Zealand will be affected by the prices in the world's markets and the fact that shortages of an almost staggering magnitude arc expected is the ground upon which some Canadian farmers are confidently building hopes of “four dollar wheat.” It takes a great deal for (he average man to appreciate the fact that one of the largest wheat-grow-ing parts of the work! is thinking of sixteen shillings a bushel for wheat, hut that is what the Canadians are discussing and ,’f their hopes should be realised the New Zealand farmer will find his wheat influenced by this high price at once. Europe is not yet producing anything like the amount of wheat she grew before the war, and there is not much hope of the pre-war standard being reached before 1922. France last season produced 168,000,000 bushels of cereals compared with a normal production of 320,000,000 bushels and Italy’s crop was 54,000,000 bushels short of the 1913 figures. Russia of course is an unknown quantity, but at least twelve months must elapse before that disturbed country can settle down to agriculture. Rumania has not, yet recovered from the terrible experiences she had during the war and she, too, cannot hope to supply much for starving Europe. This moans that there will be some sharp bidding for the American harvest, but American agriculture has been sadly -disturbed during the past year and the wheat crop, which was expected to yield 1.160,000,000 bushels actually realised only 960,000,000. America’s falling off was not due to bad climatic conditions but to a smaller acreage under wheat, a repetition of the experience in the dominion. The difficulty of getting labour had probably played some part in this reduction of the area under wheat but it. is extremely probable that the men on the land, who have to keep an eye on the markets and use their soil to the best advantage, turned their attentions to lines that yielded a better return than wheat. If the expected shortage eventuates—and there does not seem to be any reason for supposing that it will not —the rise in the price of wheat will put it in an entirely different

ctitegory and the businesslike farmer who has prepared to catch this advantageous market will reap the benefits. The Minister of Agriculture does not hide the fact that, he anticipates a serious shortage in this country unless a great deal more activity in the growing of wheat is shown by the farmers. Mr Nosworthy is appealing to the farmers to sow ns much as possible and he is aiming at having 400.000 acres under wheat this year, which with an average yield of 25 bushels to the acre would give him 10,000,000 bushels, or about 5,000,000 in excess of our immediate needs. That fact, however, need not cause the farmer any anxiety. There will be a ready demand for our surplus wheat and the prices will probably be extremely good. In any case, the farmer has the minimum prices fixed and he can rely on getting at least 7s oil, 7s Od, and 7s 9d per bushel f.0.b., for Tuscan, Hunter's and Pearl respectively. Speaking on this subject in Christchurch in March Mr Nosworthy made the position quite clear-

‘‘The point which some farmers appear to be in doubt over is the wo d ‘minimum'; some arc confusing it with, and holding that it means ‘maximum.’ Such is not necessarily the case. These prices are the guaranteed minimum f.o.b. prices, which will be adjusted according to the market rates ruling at the time. I hope that this explanation will make the position perfectly clear with those who had any doubt in the matter, as I quite believe that it may have been a determining factors with some farmers as to the area they had intended to sow in wheat. In addition there is an increment of j'd per month per bushel for six months on and after May 1 to cover storage, which is an increase of |d over the rate to be paid this season. All other terms and conditions arc the same as (hose for the present crop.” This statement by the Minister shows how the world’s market price is going to affect the wheat grower and it can affect him in one direction only, in the direction of giving him a better price. Taken all in all wheat looks a good proposition at the present moment, and from the pat riot ic

viewpoint the matter admits of no argument, We do not emphasise this side of (he question, because we realise that the farmer is as patriotic as the next man and that in the face of exceedingly trying conditions he has done remarkably well in maintaining the country’s wheat supply, at a time when the world’s market price was better than anything he was receiving for his crop. The farmer secs his duty to the State and is ready to do it given sufficiently encouraging conditions. In addition, however, he has now the prospect of an extremely good market and it is to bo hoped that those farmers who have land suitable for its production will take advantage of the government’s offer and bring the Minister’s hopes to realisation.

Year. Yield per acre, Total Acres, in Bushels. Bushels. 1900-10 .. 311.000 28.00 8,661,100 1910-11 .. 322.167 25.73 8,290.221 1911-12 . . 215,528 33.09 7,201,138 1912-13 . . 189,869 27.28 5.179,620 1913-14 . . 106.774 31.37 5,231,700 1914-15 . . 229,600 28.94 6,644.330 1915-10 . . 329,207 21.59 7.108.360 1916-17 .. 217,743 23.19 5,051,227 1917-1S . . 280,978 24.23 6,807,536 1918-19 . . 208,030 31.57 6.567,629 1919-20 .. 1-12.900 29.00 4,145,840