The next War

Southern Cross, Volume 1, Issue 35, 31 March 1894, Page 7

The next War

ITS PROBABLE DATE FIXED. An interesting article on this subject has been published by Archibald Forbes, the famous war corresponded . He says : —Europe is on the eve of her “ ANNUAL, S t’l; fXO SCARE.” That perturbation among her population is inevitable when the five Great Powers of the Continent are in the chronic'attitude of being armed to the teeth. The alarmists, who have been comparatively quiet during the winter, punctually revive as the spring months approach in which military operations in the field are possible, and make haste to tell of ominous preparations for immediate hostility. This flutter of apprehension regulaily occurs, only to fade out as springs and summers pass without the clash of arms. Yet it must be confessed that the situation is pregnant with grave danger. The strain of military preparation is only less onerous than the strain of constant preparedness. But there is one important consideration which the stormy petrels of impending European war fail to recognize. One constantly hears the argument that war must come soon, because the continued burden of prolonged preparedness is becoming unendurable. The truth is that the armed Powers STAND IX AWE OK WAP. not only because of its crushing cist as now conducted, but because of the realisation tha f , whatever be its issue, one inevitable legacy will be the enforcement of increased armaments, wot only on each and all of the combatant powers, but also on those which shall not have shared in the strife. Armageddon looms in the wear distance, but there is scant likelihood that its immediate sequel will be the Millenium. Travelling through much of the continent in the course of last autumn. I had somewhat exceptional opportunities for studying the signs of the times. Continental Europe seemed to me to be little else than one huge standing camp. From TJshant to Moscow there glittered everywhere THE FLASH OF STEF I. ; over the whole continent resounded the hoarse and strident word of command. Recruits were being drilled in every barrack-yard ; on every riflerange soldiers were at firing practice with one pattern or other of the magazine rifle. So vivid seemed the indications of impending war that one kept instinctively' glancing up at the public notices posted at the street corners in the expectation of seeing placarded the stern, curt intimation of the actual mobilisation. In the face of all those menacing indications it may seem strange that I should have brought home with me an all but definite assurance that there was to be no European war just yet awhile, a half conviction that tbe prayer “ Give peace in our time, O .Lord,” might be answered in spite of the counter indications, and a reasonable certainty that at all events, in the military nature of things, there could be no war before the late autumn of 1895. .... I come now to attempt the justification. of the prognosis I have ventured to make. The Triple Alliance is maintaining a waiting attitude, biding its lime. France in effect subordinates herself to the initiative of her powerful if slow partner in the Dual Alliance. The discretion rests with Russia when, if ever, to “ ring the heil.” This time hist year there was wot a magazine ritle in the Russian army; her weapon then was the inferior “ impr ae I Berdan.” But she has the wain;! g memory of her fearlul hssss before Plevna from the

“ )■:i.iiiiiigion ” of the Turks, with which her obsolete “ Krenkes ” cotin not cope. In March, last she ana e a definite selection of a repeating arm, the “ Three-line ” rifle. The number of pieces required to equip her army is 2-| millions. Nearly one-third of that number had been issued in the middle of the present

month (January) working at best speed. The issue falls to be completed, at the present rate, in October, 1895. Then, if she chooses, and not till then, shall the hour have come to Russia in which “ to cry havoc and let slip the dogs of war.” Finally, the war, if it comes, will be of unprecedented magnitude and destructiveness. It will be fought out a outra/nce It will be a vmvictis with a vengeance, for dismemberment will be the sure fate of SHE VANQUISHED STATES. If the Triple Alliance conquers there will be no more a French nation, and Russia will be reft of her territory west of the Dnieper and of her Baltic Provinces. In the other event Germany will be the washpot of France, and over Austria will Russia cast her shoe. Pray God, England may keep out of the struggle, save with her fleet ! If Russia is crushed, India is safe for all time; if Russia wins in the Armageddon, we may safely count that the exhaustion of the long struggle will enforce quiescence on her for many years.