Positive sings for good '97 snow year

Ruapehu Bulletin, Volume 14, Issue 686, 13 May 1997, Page 3 (Supplement)

Positive sings for good '97 snow year

Tnesignsare more positive than negative" that the 1997 snow season will be a good one — that's the prediction of climate scientists. The South Pacific is entering an El Nino phase of the Southem Oscillation, which in general means more cold south-wester-lies which deliver Ruapehu's snow. El Nino is when the mean sea level pressure at Darwin is higher than at Tahiti. Last year — the poorest snow year this decade — was in La Nina phase which is the opposite to El Nino. But the climate scientists are quick to remind us that predicting the weather tomorrow is difficult, let alone predicting the seasons. Department of Conservation scientist Harry Keys said while the signs indicate we are entering an El Nino phase, it could change back again very quickly. He said autumn- winter is the hardest time of the year to predict the weather. Also, each El Nino phase is different to any other and it only indicates a general trend towards more south-westerlies. What is needed is cold temperatures plus precipitation — some bad snow years have not been because it was too warm but too dry.