BREAKING UP

Rotorua Morning Post, Volume 1, Issue 210, 29 April 1932, Page 7

BREAKING UP

DISINTEGRATION OF CHINESE REPUBLIC APPEARS LlfeELY. SEMI-INDEPENDENT PROVINCES PMPING. China is facing the prospects of becoming lherely a federation of semiindependent provinces, now that the Central Government gets weaker and ' weaker, says competent observers. The ruling party — the Ktiomintaiig — is nnpopular throughout China, and outbreaks against its authority have occurred in every province. At one tiine, in 1928, there were hopes that the Kuomintang might succeed in forming a strong Central Government, but since their failure to avert civil war, the party has gr own steadily weaker, and except for a few tehacious leaders, hope of a really united China seems to haye been abandoned. The most likely development at present is that the provinces will eaeh have a government and will organise a loose confederation for carrying on foreign relations, but retain all domestic government in their own hands. In such event a eonsiderable portion is likely to pass entirely under Communist control. Soviet Hopes. ' - The Socialist SoViet Republic of China has renewed its prediction that it will occupy Hankow and establish a capital there before the end of this year. Probably Commuhist armies could captufe Hankow at* any time, but holding it indefinitely is another matter. Communists may-succeed in carving out a "Bolshevik state" in south central China, with Hankow and Changsha as the prineipal cities, but it is unlikely that they will extend their power much farther. Although the Communists no long- • er regard the Kuomintang as a serious rival, ■ there is little danger that they -will succeed the Kuomintang as the dominant power in China, for they are feared and distrusted even more than the Kuomintang by the great majority of people. Nevertheless, the Communists are doing all they can to take advantage of what they predict is the imminent dissolution of the Kuomintang. Learning from the past, they are moving cautiously. During the past few months, the Commilnists have been more busy eliminating "counter-revolutionists" from their ranks than with outside opponents. Their programme is to consolidate their position in Hupeh, Kinagsi, Anhwei and Fuklen provinces, to build up armies on whose loyalty they can rely, and to eliminate the "petty bourgeois" elements who have entered the party. When this is accomplished, the lan gthreatened move against Hankow will be made.