Answers by Experts to Questions we are all Asking.

Pukekohe & Waiuku Times, Volume 5, Issue 217, 13 October 1916, Page 3 (Supplement)

Answers by Experts to Questions we are all Asking.

THE WAR WILL END IN—? BRUSILOFFS DEFINITE CONCLUSION. OTHER ANSWERS THAT WERE GIVEN.

"The war is already won. 1 believe peace will come in August, 1917." It is not often that the question ii answered in so definite- terms as these, at any rate by a person with some claim to make answer. Yet this-, according to a cable message last week, is the considered opinion of General Brusiloff, the Russian Commander. Most, people will at best fix a date beyond which the struggle cannot last, and, generally speaking, will do no more than indulge in vague generalities. It will be interesting to barn upon what evidence General Brusiloff bases his conclusions. Meant-me wo reproduce herewith extracts from the London Weekly Dispatch and Daily Express, in which answers arc given to tho question from different points of view and by various authorities and celebrities.

I was interviewing an eminent financier who had just returned 1 from the United States, says a special correspondent of the "Express". He had been two months in America representing British invested capital to the extent of nine muhons sterling. The chief agent acting for the British comSanies in New York was the house of lorgan, but as the Western States provide the most fruitful area tor the investment of British capital, the companies wera also represented by other bankers - in the middle West and the South-west, who were all GermanAmericans. Tho Morgan view of the war was favourable, although not quite convincing, for an early termination, but the German-American bankers were most emphatic in predicting the almost immediate collapse of Germany. The advices f»om their banking eennections in Berlin were that German bankers had aleardy informed the Imperial Government they were unable to provide further finances, and within three months there would be a financial catastrophe throughout Germany. THE MILITARY VIEW. The " big push" had been in progress ten days. A small company, military except for the writer, sat round a table on which lay a really amazing map of the sect : cn of the German trenches already won. "It is not the big push," remarked one. "On December 31, 1915, we know they had five men per yard opposite our" line. By March 28 this year they had come down to three men to the Yard. Verdun bv that time cost them 3."0,000." " We are going to kill them off wlicto we are till there is one man per yard, and then we shall move. By May ot next year there .will be some very dirty work somewhere on the road to Berlin."

COUNT DE SOUZA, AUTHOR OF "GERMANY IN DEFEAT."

THE NAVAL ASPECT. There is an idea through the country that the German navy is shattered and will not be heard of aga-in, but th.e Navy does not share tb/s opinion; our supremacy on the sens must still be guarded and fought for with our utmost strength. The Jutland battle was a running fight; it was not a fight to the death by the German navy. Our antagonists wero saving themselves for another day, and our Navy l>olieves that befor: the* war is ended there will be another day, and wherein the German fleet w'.ll come out and face us to their last shio and their last man. "There will be another Winter's patrol—you can make up your mind on that scoiV," was the comment of a full thnee-ring tommander.

MUNITIONERS OPINIONS I was in a- factory in the Birmingham area whore a particular weapon :s made, one of the inventions of tlii.i war, and the inventor will come out of tho war a very rich man. "May next year," he said, "will see something, but the end of the war will nat be in sight until the Summer or the Autumn of 1917.'' It is when you come to the ordnance man that you get the longest view of the war. In conv'doring the end of the war you haee not only to reckon the push through Belgium, but the battering of the fortresses of the Rhin.o. Germans have declared that the valley of the Rhine is as sure a defence to invaders as the English Chann.el is to the British Isles. But we are making guns for the- invasion of Germany! 1 have been told of experiments completed jn May, and it will take ten months to complete the adequate batteries oiho the experiments proved satisfactory. Add ten months to May and you get an approximate sdea of what the ordnance maker thinks, will bo the tim,e when the guns will be crossing to France to take part in th-. attack on the fourth and last phase of the war.

AVIATORS SAY "WAIT." One more illustration of what the services tlrnk. The express was passing through a remote countryside, and I was endeavouring to catch a glimpse of a new aerodrome. A Flying Corps man joined me at the window : "I am returning from Scotland, where I flew one of our new machines," he informed me. "Tlv>y are toppoi-s—beauties. There is a new one we arc experimenting on. Wait t'dl wo put them over in France; we will then deliver 'the ■goods' anywhere in Germany." "Soon?" I queried. "No, it will lie a- tune yet. but wo will be there to help the final advance." Following -ire some opinions given in tho "Weekly Dispatch' : ADMIRAL SIR E. R. FREMANTLK. A doe. : sic,» victory on the western fiont might bring us a premature peace this year, hut I think the war will come to an end in the Spring of n?xt ••ear. I* our enemy can hold out now. it may last for years, but our control of the sea will defeat him in the end, as i:i the time of Napoleon. MR. ISRAEL ZANGWILL. Not Inter than Do:ember, 11)10. SIR EDWIN' PEARS. It appears to mc that the German.:, unaided by their troops in the west irliVli th" Br't'-.h and French can a I least keep fully occupied, will not he able to prevent the Ru-sians from hroakinc through into Germany, and this possibly liefore Winter. Austria is clearly in a bad way. If [t ,1. .111,1 Russia can continue their for a few weeks longer th' 1 ■;t : old Emperor, who was driven in- )., ;he war bv Germany as completely , i 1 Turks ■were, w ; l| bo compelled to i,.. -are or <<> see the plains of C ~. -.. ..v.-,t.|.] ' •. ( ' b-i ; - -• , i liudai,.- t mc.-., .! Ti lli.i m- .:,.! P-.,;-,- > - --I ~.■- t!i- Russian ~ . »>L <-< l ''i".a

selves strong enough in Bukovina and Transylvania to remove the fear of a retreat, Rumania, with a fresh and powerful army, w-ill probably declare for the Allies. The war will be decided in Northern Europe. Once tho Allies have won there, Bulgaria and Turkey will become negligible factors, and the victo.-s may deal with them as they like. It appears to be that the struggle is not likely to hist beyond next Easter. It may, however, collapse earlier. ADMIRAL SIR GEORGE EGERTON. We should not be in position to enter into honourable terms of peace until Germans and Austvians are driven within their own borders, and German influence in the Balkans, Turkey, and Mesopotamia is crushed. It is a big order to get through even bj the end of 1917. ADMIRAL SIR CYPRIAN BRIDGE. When f'ne Avar began it mas my belief that it would be a long one. Tho enormous advantages with which tho Teutonic Powers started gave them the moans of delivering a blow which could not be expected to expend all tts for.e in a short time. My opinion is that wo aw, I fear, likely to see a good deal of 1917 before the war is really ended.

Up to last November Germany coul 1 replace every man on all parts of her fronts. Gradually from that time onwards the percentage of reserves fell ;:t the nvnimum rate of 10 per cent, a month. It follows, tnerefore, that ten months afterward* —by September- - Germany will have reached the stage where she cannot replace a single man. From that the inference is that he: collapse will take place immedaately, and the only result that I can see is the capitulation of the whole of the German armi.es. The alternative to capitulate is mere wild offensives or a retreat. But if the enormous and prolonged attack on Verdun cannot succeed, in spite of all its awful wacrili »e, what likelihood is there of success attending an offensive anywhere else? As to a rei-'rat, nothing would sms the Allies better. They hold the German much too tightly i'or the Germans to escape. Also, I am sure, the Gormen generals hav,e no wish to go back *•■> Germany confessedly beaten. When Germany dug herself in during the Autumn of 1914, she abandoned her last chance of a decisive victory by battle. After that it. was a question of time acting on man-power. In normal trench warfare !a very few men cai hold good defences, provided they ar.j supplied with material —and provided they have reserves. But once the reserves are, gone they cannot hold out against a prolonged offensive. Remarkably few people seem to understand that Germany was reully defeated w'n.-n she wa* forced to accept tiench or Mcge warfare. Her one hope tt en was that France would bo poi Siiaded to hurl her men in enormous forces aaginst the invaders and reducss the country to i. skeleton in trying to drive them to the Rhine. But General Joffre refused at any time to play the Germans' game, and he began a line of strategy which he has followed flawlessly ever since. We have pliaced the strangle grip of a siege on the Germans, and the longer they hold out the worse peaeo terms they w:ll be forced to accept. I do not think there is any doubt that Germany knew, too, that she was defeated, and if Turkey and Bulgaria had had an elementary understanding of strategy they would never have allied themselves to a Power under siege Th\3 German Government must realise the position, and their great Verdun offensive was obviously decided upon thiefly for political considerations. The chrr.ee of taking Verdun by the most reckless sacrifice of life and mater,al was Germany's, last trump card I do not see the slightest possibility ot her being able to spring another surprise on us, and if she likes to attack she can only expect what she has met at Verdim. The German Government will naturally delay capitulation to the last moment, for it is tlv» commonest human weakness to put off decisions as long as possible, but she will have to capitulate when her reserve of man power is exhausted. That this time is all but here 1 am convinced in my calculations. ItTCHT HON. GEORGE LAMBERT. MP.

It is ; mposs'ble to say for how long tU«« war will last. We must be resolute that it shall last until the Allied forces have achieved victory. SIR C. W. MACARA.

| liver since the fieginning of the war ! have contended that, as in former war-, interference with the supply of tlv.'s two wain essentials of existence—food and clothing—would have an • enormous influence on its duration. With the command of the seas it has always been jn the power of the Allies to prevent the importation of raw materials for the manufacture of clothinj into enemy countrirs, and I contend that ia the interests of the belligerents and neutrals and, indeed, of humanity generally, this pressure •should have been exert.'d from the commencement <;' hostil't'es. The control which is now being cxririM'd must ol necessity materia!!/ shorten the war. SIR R. W. PERKS. 'Phi- war « ill have to h.-t until Geri::".uv i- absoiutely beaten. | SI I! GKORGK BJRDWOOD. I ft :Iv< Ailies' ndvaiuo continues ,it ' the present late of progress east an 1 wet, I'Y'tieh I'lamb rs and Relginir and Pol md should be free of thei • • C"'!cmi inva'di is by next New Year's H ' I ' i- war will have Ikymi foug.lt I i. ■> -, n ■ nless, after the Germans have

re-crossed the Rhine and the Vistula, the terms of peace—a peace that sha'l abolish military warfare for ever throughout the civilised world —are dictated at Berlin, and that may carry on the war for six months more. SIR LEO CHIOZZA MONEY, M.P. Wo have still a long, long way to go. and Vp have therefore to determine to endure for a long time yet.