WAR PROPHETS AND PROPHECIES.

Pukekohe & Waiuku Times, Volume 5, Issue 199, 11 August 1916, Page 4 (Supplement)

WAR PROPHETS AND PROPHECIES.

WHO IS TOLSTOIS "NEW NAPOLEON ? The conip'Lers of phophetic almanacks seem generally to have failed u foretell the approach of the most stupendous of wars, but many more or less vague prophecies concerning it wero revived and circulated widely during the first months of its pi-ogres*. None of these apparently gave any idea of the, vastness of the catastrophe, except that by "Brother Johannes," professedly a French monk of some centuries back, whose long propheev was marvellously accurate in detail; .-o accurate,as for example in its prediction of war not only by land and sea, but beneath the waters and in the air, that sceptical Englishmen inquired suspiciously who this monk was, and when he really lived. Perhaps no one who read the 'engthy translation of the "prophecy"' in certar'n English papers will 1)0 surprised to hear that, according to Maurice Materlinck, critical invesfcigat'on has proved to to l>e " an in. genious literary conceit." THE CLAIRVOYANT'S DREAM. Other predictions wero concerned with s'ngle phases of the matter, one. for example, foretelling the end of the German Empire about the year 1913. This, it was said, was part of a forecast given by a clairvoyant to the Kaiser's grandfather, King William of Prussia, in 1849, the other items foretelling the formation of the German Empire n IS7I and the death of Wil'iam himself in 1888. Various others declared that France in .i later war with Germanv would recover what she had lost in 1870 and extend her possessions Rhinewards. One of these in particular, made by a certain Leon Sourel, a teacher of natural philosophy as long ago as i 869. gave remarkably accurate details, and has roused great interest in France the man to whom it was told being still liv'ng. M. Soure 1 , it would appear, had a sort of mystic vision in the year mentioned while walking with his friend »n the gardens of the Luxemburg. In this vision he foresaw, accurately as after events proved, manv happenings in h's own life and that of the friend. Dr. Tardieu, and many details of tho Franco-Prussian war of 1870. He described France's defeat and despoilng by her enemy exactly a> it came to pas<, then her triumphant rise, and the moving of her boundaries to the Rhine. No dates were suggested, but Dr. Tardeu, giving the particulars early in 1914 before any rumours of the war that was imminent had arisen, declared that, from the recent fulfilment of certain of the predictions concerning h'mself, he judged that the war wlvcli his fnend had foreseen as winning back for France her possessions and her g'ory was due before September of that year. On August 1. as we know war was actually declared.

REASONED FORECASTS. Besides these and the four score or more, other "supernatural" propheciei having reference to the happenings'if the great war, there is an entirely different class of war-prophecies wh'cn has been forming and growing for man • years. This has ts foundations in observation of men and matters, of :nte national policies and relations, nd or reasoning based thereon. After Europe had stood by an I set n Franco humiliated and defiea 1 ; 1 by Germany in 1870 Verdi, speaking for Italy, said: —"One hundred thousand of our men could perhaps have saved France. At all events I should have preferred signing a peace defeated Willi the French to this inertia that w - !' cause us to be despised one day. Thf European war we shall not avoid, and wo shall be devoured. It will not be to-morrow, but it will Ik? some day. An excuse is easily found. It may be Rome, the Mediterranean, and then, is there not the Adriatic they have already proclaimed German?"" Italian policy has varied greatly at different times since these words were written, but Verdi's predict'on has proved true only so Far as the coming of the unavoidab'e war is concerned.

Uanibetta, the great French statesman, who did his utmost to save h:s country in the war of i?7O, foresaw something of what has com? to pass. Speaking of Anglo-French co-operation, which he greatly des'red to encourage In Egypt, Gambetta said that for some years there had bc-en evident in Europe a Western policy represented by Franc*! and Br tain. "I do not know oi any other European policy," he said, ' capable of helping us in the direst emergencies which may arise,' adding with solemn impress'.vencs l -: —"And what I say to you to-day, I say with a deep sense of a vision of the future.'" Remembering that these words were uttered in the seventies, before Britain and France had begun to move towards the "Entente," before the aggressive policy of William 11. had aroused misgivings throughout Europe, their prophetic truth is the more enterest'ng. TOLSTOIS PREDICTION. The prediction dictated by Tolstoi to his rtece in 1910, not long before Irs death, seems startling now in its detailed significance. "The. great conflagration," he declared, "will start about 1912, set by the torch of the first arm in the countries of South-Eastern , Europe. It will develop into a destructive calamity in 1913. In this year I see all Europe in flames and bleeding. I heair the lamentat ons of huge battlefields. But ajjout the year 191."5 a strange figure'lrom the North —a new Napoleon—enters the stage of the bloody drama. He is a man of little militaristic training, a writer or journal'st, but in h'.s grip most of Europe will remain till 1925. The end of the great calamity will mark a new pol'tcal era for till- Old World. There will bo left no empires or kingdoms, but the world will form a federation ot the United tates of Nations. There will remain only four great giants—the Anglo-Saxons, the Latins, the Slavs. and Mongolians." Xous-verrons! Someone else hr.s piophes'ed that the watt' will strengthen the hands of Emperors and Kings, and the German race, as a race. i 5 likely to lie somewhat difficult ol elimination from tha giants, whatever may be the terms arranged by the post-war congress. Among thoi>c who have c'farly fore-st-en the approach of a titanic struggle is Lord Fisher, and because of this he carried through naval reforms with indomitable purpose in the teeth of great oppos tion. It has been stated on good authority that, watching German policy and preparations, he declared some time beforehand in a letter which stil! exist-, that the Kaiser would make war in 1914, when the enlargement ot the Kiel Canal, made necessary by the coming of the Dreadnought, would b? liiv.shsd. VISIONS OF CATASTROPHE. Besides such definite predictions, rumblings of war phophecies have been heard for long among us, finding expression in more or less vague terms as to time and details, but a'l definite in regard to the central fact. Many ot our best statesmen and greatest soldiers and seajucn have been among the prophets, as also loaders of foreign

thought and British and foro'gn journalists, and their ideas and utterances. have contributed, no doubt, to some of the literary prophecies that have made their appearance. John Oxenliani's poem, " Policeman X," written as long ago as 1898, is now revealed as a remarkably prophetic vision of the part played by tiie Kaiser about :i world-war. The CzarTiad fcgt issued his famous Rescript for a international Peace Conference, and the poet sees the Kaiser, the "War Lord," hesitating to "cast his lot for peace"' with other ru'ers, shaking his head doubtfully while "in his eyes vast futures burned and blazed." He pictures the Prince of Peace demanding over and over again of the "War Lord'' — "Sh -11 it be peace—or war? The scales are tin thy hand," and after each repet.'.tkm of the question showing him scenes of war and its awfulness, and linaliy, its contrast, a world of peace. A prophetic vision of " Legions swarming to the West. Devouring kingdoms till they, reached the sea. And filling a'l th e lands with blood and fire." tho "War Lord" is desci/bedas erring, "Mine—all these are mine." while he gazed on them "with eyes that blazed and flamed," and "panted like a soul in torment."' Curiously a phrase used by the poet himself sounds prophetic to our ears now. The pictures "all vanished like a scrap of paper in a fire of coals," he says, before the "War Lord" answered. For a '"scrap of paper," said Germany, not so long ago Britain made war. When in 1914 German legions actually were seen "swarnvng to the West." the poet wrote an epilogue to his prophetic anticipation or things to come, including the further forecast: — "Woe! woe! woe! —to him by whom this came, His house shall unto him be desolate And to the end of time has name shall be A by-word and reproach "n all the lands He rapined. . . And Irs own shall curse him For the ruin that he brought." THE WELDING OF THE EMPIRE. Another poetic prophecy that is of interest is one that comes from Australia. Written by the Chief Inspector of the Queensland Po'ice Force, and published in a book of verse twenrrfour years ago. the lines were quoted after the war broke out. They suggest that the Colonial, thinking his thoughts beneath far southern stars, understood certain things better than all the spies and wis.* men of all the nations of the besieged Cld World, better even than Britain herself. In prophetic vision be sees "Britannia's Army"' marching to meet a "world in arms," her banner inscribed "May God defend the right." the rallying point not on'y of men of the homeland, but also of a great company of "Canada's staunch woodland sons," "India's swarthy squadrons," ''warrior bauds" from Africa, and •young scions of the grand old race from far Pacific Seas." Tho verges read, in truth, like a description of that army of "Greater Britain," whose mustering from the four corners of the world thrilled our hearts. And they contain another prophecy—if so we may call it —the fulfilment of which is yet in the lap of the gods, though we may we'l see it brought to earth in our time —a prophecy of that " Federal Empire" of Britain which the war has shown to exist in fact, i" not in name or common privu lege.