THE DURATION OF THE WAR.

Pukekohe & Waiuku Times, Volume 5, Issue 179, 2 June 1916, Page 4 (Supplement)

THE DURATION OF THE WAR.

Speculation about the duration of the war id inevitable. Wherever two or three are gathered together and begin to talk about the war, one or other is pretty sure to say, "How long do you think it will last?" Usually the question is not asked anxiously, but as a topic of conversation interesting to all. Not much attention is paid to the answer, which is generally very vague; but opinions aro exchanged, and there is an end of it. This sort if speculation is quite harmless, it belongs to the small coin of social intercourse. But some people go much further and profess a considerable degree of certainty. AVo have had instances of this in our cable i-'ws during the past few days. Confident pa-dictions havo been ascribed to politicians, financiers and other business men, one ot whom, an Australian, was reported a day or two ago to have said that despi e Lloyds' odds to the contrary, he was sure tho war would end, in our favour, not later than October next. The prominence given to such opinions is likely to mislead. Admittedly, men ought to look forward, and they havo a rght to their own opinion. But the amusement is not altogether harmless, and wo agree with a London contemporary that it calls for a word of warning. The public will do well to pay no attention to these predictions, or at least to place no reliance on them. Some of them may provs to be right, but they are only guesswork. Nobody really knows or can know. There are far too many uncertain factors to permit anybody, no matter how well-informed or shrewd or authoritative, to forecast the course or events with any approach to pre-

■-Von. For those reasons, then, there can be no certainty about the duration of the war, and thereforoi it is unwise to count on any prediction; but it is obviously more unwise to count upon a short than upon a long duration. There appear to be two main schools of prophets. The one predicts in early collapse of the enemy, the other looks forward to a prolongation of the war for years to come. The mischief of the first view is that it ends to an easygoing confidence and a slackening of effort, 'the slowness with which the nation has got into its swin:, the artificial obstacles that have neon raised and are still being raised to supreme exertion, and the numerous defects that have hampered progress, aro due more to an easy-going confidence than anything else. The belief in an early collapso of the enemy is deadening. On tho other hand, the view that the war must inevitably last a long time yet is dangerous because" 1 it encourages tbe easy-going mood in a different form. It suggests that there is plenty of time to consider and cscuss t!,o vario ;> problems that will arise her'.-,>fter, and that there is no need to settle anything quickly now. That mood n.sy in th•; end prove more fatal to the future welfare of the Empire than belief m a speedy termination.