WHEN THE WALLS WILL FALL.

Pukekohe & Waiuku Times, Volume 5, Issue 167, 20 April 1916, Page 3 (Supplement)

WHEN THE WALLS WILL FALL.

A DISPASSIONATE STUDY OF GERMANY'S CHANCES.

Mr. Frederick Palmer, the famous war corespondent, contributes to "Coliler's Weekly," under the title of "Is Germany Winning?" oiw of the most striking and lucid articles on the past, present, and future of the great war that have appeared in any American publication. Here are a few 01 the points he makes in his long and notable article: "Germany must be winning," says the wise neutral, thinking of the hordes of prisoners Germany has taken, and with his dispassionate eye on the map. But in this war the map is the greatest liar in the world. For Germany is not winning. The map is a liar unless it covers the whole worl (.and includes the seas and continents.

England came in—and Germany knew that she had lost. But s'.ie could not stop her legions:, sho must go on, making the best of a bad bargain. Bear in mind, victorious Germany, ever since August 4, has been fighting for counters with which to gai'i peace, and hopefully a peace that will leave her strong enough to step between France and Russia against her o'iJ enemy, England, at some future tn?:e. Germany realises shal with guns and men enough the western line can be broken. And she lealises that if the Russians come in with their new forces in the spring she may not be able to spare the necessary reserves to resist an attack in tho west.

When the Germans ask for peace thev serve notice on the Allies that they are exhausted'. The Allies will answer: "We are going to let you stew for another year."

Ts Gcrmanv winu.ng with probablv 1,500,000 men ccad or crippled for life? Is <he winning when she does not know now she is going to force peace? Can she win if she cannot continue ner offensive when spring comes? Can she win if she must accept the- defensive?

Consider this war of about twenty rounds, Germany trying for a knockout in the first five. Having failed, many thought her offensive was over. But'it was not. She was still taking the initiative in the tenth round. This winter brings us past the tenth round, and the spring win show us the fifteenth. It will be the nineteenth round perhap sthe twentieth round itself, that will toll. England's new munition factories have only begun to supply shells. The maximum American am. Japanese output will not he reached until February or March.

With spring the .Allies, for the first time, will have :. real superiority in guns, material, and men on the fighting lino.

Germany probably still has 4,0C0,0CU lighting men and Austria 3,000,000. France must have close J .: 4,000,000, England more than 3.000,000, and Russia 3,000,000 not counting her uuorgan- i ised reserve. Thus Ur- Albes have a superiority equivalent te the Britisn New Army. . If Germany is going to continue her offensive, where can she strike? Can she undertake another offensive against Russia when in -May 'die French cover all the front-line trenches in the west with shells and undertake an offensive five limes the artillery power of Champagne and Loos? To win, Germany must beat the immense new British Army. She must the 1917 class of recruits which in November France had not yet called to the colours. She must win in some kind of a decisive victory at arms—or lose; must suceeec in wearing down the Allies' resources and men by attrition instead of the Allies wearing down hers. . . Suppose that all next ,~pnng ana summer Germany throws hersell against those lines of tsee! in vain. Suppose that a line of :-tce! is across her path in the Balkans as well as in 1< landers and in Russia: 'or if she extends her lines in Scrvia and Bulgaria she needs correspondingly more men to keep them intact. Suppose that instc.d of being able to take the offensive, she uses her magnificent railroad systmi for rushing bodies of troops here and there in orr.v to halt the offensive -t UP Allies—what will be the effect then upon German sentiment? What would have been the effect on Japanese sentiment if the Russians had held out tor another year and let the Japanese s-<v> in front of their army? ~ ~ ... When Lord Kitchener told the 31.!isters of the British Cabinet that the war would bo long They v . re sceptical. Hut now they know th.i: at knew \vh".. he was talking about. HK COPXTED THE LAST BATTLE. I : at is the battle that England has a.ways had to win. and usually lias won. _ You mav he sure tne amazing brain trust which governs Germany._ which knows how to inflame the- omoti >m\ '-i its own people to its p impose. wh-'ch unites great military leading wit.i very

-kilful statecraft, is '.vev go;ng to giv> tlio world a c 'i:n that flic- is losing. The one fliaiif-o that Germany has of winning is the chance that gavj Japan

victory. , . Though beaten, she mav keep hor arrets close, conceal her wounds =n well, that she will pivo the appear--irr of vutcivan; dtcrn* ! kronen into compromise But it the Alius Icren on for another eighteen months, and f they hold together, there is no doubt that Germany will be beaten.

And if their money lasts! Watch and see if it doesn't. The Allied troops mav never cross the Rhine; none of them may again enter East Prussia. But it will be Germany that will have to sue for terms because she is in a state of siege.

The British hold the sea. They have the sii]K>rioritv in Dreadnoughts and battle-cruisers whose guns can smns.i anything above wat.-r. The methods they used in holding down th,. submarine'campaign in the North Sea ought also to serve in the Met.iterranean. Germany is in the position of a man v.ho strike, for want of r.ir, for want of room. Ho lunges this way and that with the craving for breath for his lunes and space for his linilw. He pnsl.r, the wall back a bttV. but it i s -.till there, dashing his own blood hae kin his face. He beraks through one door, but there s .mother beyond. The mental strain of srch a battle '-"■ n« severe a* the nhysiea!. \..\t dimmer, if Russia tomes back strone and Turkev r.nd Bulgaria are tamed, the walls will begin to fall in on tho Germans,