ODDS AGAINST FERDINAND.

Pukekohe & Waiuku Times, Volume 5, Issue 147, 18 February 1916, Page 3 (Supplement)

ODDS AGAINST FERDINAND.

THREE TO ONE OFFERED AT LLOYD'S; OTHER WAR RISKS BETTING. 3 to 1 against King Ferdinand being on the throne by June. I'JIG. 8 to"l against the British sold er being killed in battle. 10 to 1 against the war lasting iasting beyond December, 1016. Above are some of the most interesting of the war risks which L'oyd s are covering, lhe curious thing about the insurances being effected oil the Bulgarian throne is that since the day when the underwriters accepted the first policy the market has steadily risen against the public, lhe rate started a £•> -os per cent., or 20 to 1, and in a few days was 3ogns., or seven times as great. In other words, i shade under 3 to 1. It s necessary to explain however, that the tremendous harelenng of the rate does not indicate any change in i!,e underwriters opinion that the risk iiisurecl against is small, but rather the l iiiit of the underwriters circle prepared to take on highly speculative business, coupled with the pressure of demands for policies, tp to a month ago the underwriters stood to lose £2OOO. which shows that they had only accepted a few policies, lo put the position in simple terms, under the first policies, by paying £•""> os you entitled \ourself to receive £IOO if King Ferdinand was still Czar at Sofia : « few davs later to receive that same hundred you had to pay 31 gns. An underwriter remarked that the rate opened so small to encourage business, and that as bus ness came in it was bound to increase to give the underwriters a chance. The people who have taken out these policies on the Bulgarian throne are business men with interests in Bulgaria. If King Ferdinand remains Czar they stand to lose very heavily, and this wagering on h .s contin-'iince in power ;s one way of compensating themselves if the worst happens. 'lhe peace betting at Lloyd's was much more vigorous in the early summer than it is now, and the reason appears to be that people have been too mu-.h occiip : ed with more substantial war risks, -uch as insuring against aircraft bombardment and losses at sea. The underwriters accepted most polities providing for a total loss claim should the war be still on by the end of the year, and they were not very sanguine' about escaping paying out. Tue betting against the continuance of the war after December. Wl- r, ; has been about three to one. and policies -nvolv. ing payments of as much as €3OOO have been taken out. To-day what peace insurance po'ides are being taken out have the long odds of ten to one. Veit ay £lO, and if the war is st'll on by December, 1916, you receive £IOO. It seems a safe risk for the underwriters, but shrewd business men are prepared to take tho odds. The life insurance companies very generou-ly agreed in the case of an insured person not to charge him any more for the risk of death on the field of battle in the event of his joining the army. When new bus.ness was transacted. however, they demanded an extra twelve guineas per cent, beyond the ordinary premium. They are. therefore, laying eight to one against the ordinarv policy holder being killed in the war. The rsk certainly favours the insurance compaav. tor of a thousand men who go to the war only 10 per cent, are Killed. Taking the lirifsh Army in tho field ;> a million, the killed, who work out at a hundred thousand, represent just one in ten.