YES.

Pukekohe & Waiuku Times, Volume 5, Issue 141, 4 February 1916, Page 3 (Supplement)

YES.

liy JOSEPH McCAIJE.

Author of "The Kaiser: His Personality and Career," " Treitsehke and the Great War," "The Soul of Europe," etc. ' Among the popular illusions which reconcile Englishmen to a merely partial use of our great resources none ;s more obstinate or more mischievous than the belief that our enemy will soon run short of effectives. From the first the indolent maxim "Time is on our s.de" entered into the daily currency of our optimist'c Press. For a moment we had visions of a speedier and more glorious triumph ; of .Russian steam-rollers, and digging out the German Fleet, and other cheerful possihil t'es. Now that these illusons are dispelled, we return to the older belief. One oracle of the hour, wlio drops impressive hints about the sources of his inspiration, is prepared to demonstrate mathematically that Germany s effectives will begin to fa.l at the end of the present year. When a statesman who regards himself as the most conscientious of warexperts, Mr. Winston Churchill, supports this general belief, and assures the House of Commons that Germany's resources will be exhausted "in the second or third year of the war," one wonders if the belief be not something more than a popular illusion. Yet it is demonstrably an illusion, and a profoundly mischievous illusion. Here one docs not rely on club gossip, on unverifiable : nformation. on abstruse inductions The statistics ol Germany's manhood are publ:c property. We do not invade the domain of oiir experts in analysing, them, nor do we scare an innocent and apprehensive puolic with some cecret that were better guarded. And a sober analyses of these official and easily accessible figures will inform any person that Gerfany has at the prcsnt time between eleven and twelve million effectives, and that we are wearing these down at a rate of less than two millions a year.

THE INEFFICIENT. The German census of 1010 revealed that at that tune there were in the country 13,50b,133 males of military age. It is estimated in all authoritative publications, and the estimate may easily be checked, that in duly 1014 the a eld 11 on to the populat on was about 2,556,01i0. from the census itself. which gives the age of the entire population, we gather what proportion of these must be accounted of military age. Indeed, the actual figure's of the yearly increase are given in the Statistisches .Jahrbueh. It is, in other words, an indisputable fact that Germany began the war with at least Hi million men of military age. How many of these had 1» en rejected as inefficient? Again the figures are public property, and are annually pub. lislied in so readily accessible a work as the Statistisches •Jahrbueh (an official publication). Yet the most reckless and amazing figures arc current in England, and it is plain that we have here one of the thoroughly unsound bases of the optimistic estimate. The German military authorities reject every year a little over a thousand convicted criminals and about 30,000 a year as "inefficient'' (Untaugliche). I have, in order to ascertain closely what proportion of the actual men of military age have been rejected, examined the figures over a period of twenty-five years. When we allow for deaths during thiise twenty-five years—a strict allowance, based on the census figures —we see plainly that, of the living male papulat on of military age. loss than three-quarters of a million have been "rejected as inefficient," to quote the official description. But the optimistic estimate I am examining is based on the supposition that three millions or, some say, three and a half millions have been rejected as inefficient.

This remarkable and mischievous blunder seems to be due to some person wlio-e acquaintance with Germany is, to say the least, imperfect. Between the efficient and the inefficient the German military authorities annually set aside a number of men whom they describe as " lov-i efficient," or not quite up to the standard (minder Taugliehe). Even ii' these be added to the inefficient we have by no means a total of three miU'ons. The class averages about 120.0ii0 a year. and. if we allow for deaths, the total of these minder Taugliehe among the living population is considerably- less than two millions. But they are not "inefficient" and are not "rejected," even in time of pence. They are allotted to the Landsturni or third hue of defence. The Landsturm is hong drawn upon to-day, and even this class of it must count among Gernianv's effectives. Wo know, in fact, that the standard has been lowered, and there has been a re-examination even of "unfit."

S:iine of our optimists seem to have made the more startling blunder of <ia>MiiL' a third category with the ine'iie 'lit. Iv/ery year the authoritiefi ■-i't a-ih' ;■!•<>i■ t 2till.()tl'l youths a< "efficient iil tli' hit ui .'." I'iiev are explicitly allotted lo the Supplement,irv I»i—-rve, are entirely lit, aiel ■ Jiion whom (ii'riiiai"- ■ i . • :i •; W ! I '! !•: 'i; ci 'eh • I'll "111 " At Ir-I! I'-:. (• ii 111. li'.Aii: I lie I't . -ii." • to Septelliher 2^ Here 1.1 M. Wemav llierefore lake it that the current estimate. for the who'e of (iermanv. of tlire" million casualties in the jir.-t year of the war i. fairlv «-:!fi*. it was a year ol ajraii I siin<ei|i!i'iitly one of hiirh <:i- Halt ie-. Now We may that ahont i" per cent, of our ie; return. Mii.ni'i' or later, to the field, anil it w II hardly he ■■ that tiie (iermalir; are h-s siicce-still. I "t U-. to lie onto sail', .w-imi" a dead lens ol two million men per year, lint your optimist -cell's "cnerally to forget that more than half a million annually reach militarv aue. and llii, redik-os the dead annua! h-" to Imillions.

The situation really is, therefore, that at the present t:me Germany has about 12 million men of military age, apart from the inefficient, and we are wearing these down at the net rate of millions a year. How far industrial needs affect the situation cannot l>e stated with precision. It can, however, l>e precisely stated that (iermany has five million men just under or over military age (and not over the age of •>•">). that she has attracted a large number of skilled workers from neutral countries, that she has large numbers of Belgians and Poles and prisoners of war doing even skilled work, and that she has (as the German Press daily shows) gone far beyond us in the education and organisation of womanlabour. In face of these notorious facts —and a somewhat similar analysis might he made of Germany's material resources —we must regard the current illusion as gravely prejudicial to England's action. A ''war of attrition" is impossible. To reply on a sort of passive resistance is to head straight for an indecsvc peace, a lowered prestige, and an unimaginable economic burden. Nothing but a drastic and wholehearted organisation of this nation's resources can hope to prevail over so powerful and drastically organised an antagonist.