UNKNOWN

Pukekohe & Waiuku Times, Volume 5, Issue 129, 7 January 1916, Page 3 (Supplement)

UNKNOWN

HI THE WAR WILL NOT BE - DECIDED THERE.

Hr. Hilaire Belloc shows in a masteiway, in the "Sunday Herald", wny rmany's new attempted diversion in ■via and Bulgaria has no ultimate Tie, for he says : l ln the south-east of Europe no deioD can possibly be expected, it is the two great fronts, the Russian I the Western, and particularly upthe latter, that the war can be won the Allies. It is there that the )id decline of enemy numbers, when be.?ns, will produce the most st<K'.g ud decisive results. L:,i3 OF RESERVES 0!-' MEN. "If you bear the true figures i'. nomnd the main motive of die onpu'y II be perfectly apparent. It may i c named up in a single sentence: — "The enemy, approaching the end of his reserve of men. hopes by the Balkan move to disturb the Alliance politically, and in particular to cause disaster in the opinion and government of Great Britain. •

"The enemy is approaching the enu h : s reserve in man-power.

"That is the fundamental strategic ict of the moment more important to (member than any other, and of more msequence to the campaign as a hole than the invasion of Servia or le wide advance over the Polish froners .of Russia.

"How do we know that he is coining i the end of his reserve of men?

"By a calculation in which the War •ffiees of every Allied Power have been bsorbedl for months past, in which very kind of intelligence and evidence rocurable has been used, and as a re ult of which, the calculation reached > very nearly the same in the case of very competent observer. FATAL TURN OF THE YEAR. " 'lt is open to all of ua who care to ollow the important elements of the rar and to neglect mere sensationalism ;o read what the General Staffs have niblshed upon these matters. Many of is have the further privilege of speakng to those who have actually undertaken the calculations, and who have Corrected the figures under every possible check and counter-check, and the general result is this: —

"No one in Europe occupying such a position—of the hundreds, or rather thousands, engaged in the work —puts the decline, in the tn emy 6 effectives later than the turn of the New Year. No one puis it earlier than somewhere in the month of November.

"In other words, you have within n margin of less than two* months a period certainly established —-established with mathematical certainty—after which the enemy's effectives begin to decline.

"That is the capital and enormous fact underlying everything that is go mg on, not only in Servia, but in the vest and in Russia. That is the fact which is burned into the military consciousness of the enemy's higher command more profoundly than any other. It "s the one certain factor upon which everything else must be based. "But here one ought to explain the somewhat technical phrase, 'the do clme in the enemy's effectives,' " odds Mr. Belloc. WHAT DOES DECLINE MEAN? "The actual fighting force of a na tion, or group of nations, at war does not consist of its total available armed population. The actual fighting force consists of battalions, batteries, squadrons grouped into regiment-, brigades, divisions, and army corps. And these, from the lesser to the greater, are called by the general term of 'units.' "A nation at war determines to 'maintain in the field'so many 'units." Behind these un : ts there are cither ac tua 11 y trained and equipped, or m process of being trained and equipped, reserves of man-power which are fed into the units as occasion serves in order to fill up gaps caused by wastage, that is by death from weapons and from sickBess, disablement by wound--, disablement by sickness, losses from capture. These numbers, continually stent for irard from the reserve of man-power ly jng behind the army, are called draft-, and the places where the reserve of man power is concentrated and from which the draft- are sent are called ■depots. "A nation decides how many uf its total mail-power it can use lor tue actual ngntmg by waiting a rough gue.-~ as to iik' pi'Obaule iengui cu tnc campaign.- tlie probable rate o( wastage, and tnc numoer ot men which it w:l! Have a vain: we within that time tor making good tne wa tage. The term 'efJectn rs is used ior tne men armed and equipped and ready tor lighting. •■.mj.v the enemy, to our certain knowledge (it is not a matter of guess work.), must use upon hi- various i'ronts and their commun (aliens not less than five mill on men. We know witlun a certain margin of error his rate of wastage, and we know his total jnan-power. A mere calculation, therefore, without further evidence, is sufficient to tell us, if the rate of wastage continue- (m it has), at what date his unit- .11 the held can no longer be uopt up to ilieii full strength. When this point i- reached we say that hi.-, vifectivts hecin to decline/ }, -The"Allies, a- a whole, have the •wry grt.it advantage that -uch n date for theni - not e\en in sight. Imur p„u'i>iii' nt and munitioiinient may bo Srdv, ~ n has i-een in the case of Russia, and to some extent m tin;: country. TLy may be, as they are in >i,j r (d mtry, moved to debate whether an oxi-ti' 1 ;. system of recruitment will aiilhVe to lap tin existing re-cr-.c of man-power i but v r •'llio l- we turn to f!ii-»ia, to Britain, to Ita'y. or even to Fiance. «e :in-I everywhere thai the r.-erre of maiip .wei for keeping un'i- in t'irj- 10 ! d ;.! their lull strength ; ample, unci t: e end of it >:- not ev-n in sijiht. "Wit', the enemy the . nl i> not only . in sight, but ran '»,. predicted withb the narrow I'nrt.s I hnvi ahoadv men tioned. It w : ll eonm at it- oivlii ■* in JS'ovcmb- " .at it-, latest in the i .i:ly part oi t-i ■• new year. * ■■ \ commander who-e effe. tivi - w 11 decline alter a certain date mrv try w bal i- "'died a 'diver-ion" by tempt ,„,. hi- • nenres, before h'.s decline betrin-, to commit some folly or to hre'tk up internally, and so to -are the situation for him. • ? FIVE ARMY CC)\>J>> CONK. ft-. Of the various (-our-'- ortrn in the this la-f is the m ■ that ha- been chosen. It has b<. n d"Ijberatoh chosen just before the deohro in enV-tivcs shall showitself, and it is remarkable that the choice ha- been so deliberately as to exclude any alter.

: * r ~" native policy, particularly the |folicy of husbanding men. ' " On the western front, for instance, the enemy has deliberately' thrown last few days. Since the last week it away great masses of men in quite the last few clays. Since the last week of last month—that is, in the last three weeks —the equivalent of five army corps has melted from his effective*. And of that huge loss two-fifths at least have been due to his. deliberate and very gallant counter-offensive hurled against our Allies in the nortn and centre, with as much vigour and as great an expense of numbers .is though he were in the first spring ot his attack. "It has been just the tame on the northern part of the Russian front." NO TREASON. Knowing the enemy's avowed object in his new diversion in the Balkans. Mr. Belioc makes a strong appeal that Irs desire to put disorder among the Allies shall not succeed. "To the plain citizen, whose motives are patriotic and sincere,~an appeal can be made and should lie made, I think, by everyone with a sense of responsibility at this very grave moment. And that appeal is not to interfere with those who have for the moment the conduct of public affairs. To call for information is next door to treason. For anything that can possibly be kept from the enemy at this moment should lie kept from him, and to spread alarm is not next door to treason, hut is actually treason,'' concludes Mr. Belloc.