WAR – LIFE – AND DEATH.

Pukekohe & Waiuku Times, Volume 4, Issue 87, 24 September 1915, Page 1 (Supplement)

WAR - LIFE - AND DEATH.

(By Sir LEO CHIOZZA MONEY.)

One hears on every hand the will be short of men!" This, unthinking. Sir Leo Chiozza on economics, contributes to " on the vital statistics of the wa the effect of the war on popula esting light. The article, brief able contribution to the warcondi

remark : " After the war Britain however, is the opinion of the Money, well-known as a writer The War Illustrated'' an article r, which puts this question of tion in a new and most interthough it is, forms a very valutime study of the after-war tions.

I want to preface what I am about to say here by observing that I hope nothing I utter will be interpreted as seeking to minimise the enormous sacrifices that are being made by those who are fighting for us. Indeed, as one who, like most other people, has near and dear relatives and friends in the fighting forces I am only too acutely conscious of the terrible losses which the nation is sustaining. I want, however, to examine the facts of the case as calmly as possible from the national point of view, because of the many fears that are expressed that, as a result of the war, a great and irreparable drain upon our population will have occurred. If in malting this examination of the facts 1 have to make statements that have an appearance of 1 o'd-bloodedness, the reader will not doubt that I fully realise the terrible tragedies and bereavements, the ruined homes and happinesses that lie behind these (old figures of life and death. The Prime Minister has stated in the House of Commons the losses of the Army and Navy down to May 31st, or lor nearly ten'months of warfare. 1 five the facts stated by him in a convenient form in the following table, and I have added an estimate of what our losses will probably be during the remaining two months of the first year of warfare:

(.'ASIAI/HES FOR THE FIN ST YEA R OK THE WAR. Auji. -)l]i to May 31ht-. Killed. AY'uded. Missing. Total. Army ' 50.342 153,980 53,717 258,009 Navy 8,245 2,443 2,859 13,517 Add for . I une and •July 24,000 86,000 10,000 120,000 Probable Total for First 12 months ... 82.587 242.423 00.000 391,010

It is, unhappily, possible that those figures may be exceeded, for our repnrted casualties in June h«ve apnarontlv been over 2,000 a day, of which probably one-fifth were deaths. I have to neglect the fart that the Prime Minister's totals did not apparently include deaths and permanent invalidations from disease. THE TERRIBLE LIFE COST. Casualty figures are often loosely used as though the whole of the total represented deaths or permanent invalidations. As a matter of fact, by far the greater number of the wounded completely recover, and this at once wipes out far more than one-half of the total. Again, the nearly 57,000 missing down to May 31st haa to a very largo proportion indeed consisted of prisoners who will- by-and-by be restored to their country. It is difficult to say how many of the missing represent deaths which have not been definitely ascertained. . Perhaps we may say, to get a fair idea of the facts, that in tho first year of the war the United Kingdom will have lost something like 100,000 of its best voting men, and that in addition an actually large, but relatively small, number of young men will have become badly crippled or invalided for life. It is only too likely, however, that the war will last for a second year, if not longer. If we imagine peace to be concluded by August, 1916, it is dimcult to say whether the casualties wi. 1 be more or less in the second year than in the first. Wans are waged in chapters of varying degrees of intensity and |, K; Thus, in the above figures for tho first vear the greater part of the losses occurred in its later months. The openj1Icr , hapters of the second year are cert:un to bring severe casualties, but its later months may see a reduction. It, however, the war lasts for three years, then tho whole of the second year may be a period of heavy casualties. In view of the tremendous uncertainties ot tho case, I do not think it serves any very useful purpose to discuss the liic-anu-de ith issues of the second year.

<;HKVr INCREASE IN THE number of births.

C mtining myself tlien to the first vi ill's war tare, what of consolation can i.P drawn from the casualty ligurcts »roin the national point of view.' I might say much of the supreme cause that is at stake, and assort without fear of just contradiction that trout the point of view of the preservation „f human liberty and of national integiit v the price is not too high. pro ;(,n concerned, however, with lite and ,l,. :i tli iiv it affects the population of the ' '\vVdc not know liow manv children will have been horn during the war in Ihe I'nited Kingdom l;y the tune Ani'ust -Itii pomes round again. I;,;, probable, however, that the number will l>o somewhat larger than in the twelve months before war broke „. lt Tn the first quarter of this year. 001.447 children were born in England Miid Wales as compared with Ji.l / in

WHY THE BRITISH POPULATION MAY BE BIGGER AND NOT SMALLER AT THE END OF THE WAR.

great an increase of births that it more than offset an unhappy increase in infantile mortality. In the first quarter of this year 28,417 infants died (an infant for this purpose is a child no trover one year old, as compared with 20,01 i in the same period last year. Therefore. in January-March, 1915, England and Wales, after allowance for infant deaths, gained 193,030 persons, as com pared with 192,170 in the same period of lar-t year. MORE GAIN THAN LOSS. I have not yet the facts for this year for the whole of the country, but we know that in 1914 there were 1,102,000 births and 662,000 deaths in the I nited Kingdom, being an excess of births over deaths of 440,000. It seems probable that we can assume that in the first twelve months of the war we shall gain by excess of births over deaths, apart from the war, 100.000 people. Therefore, if the war costs us 100.000 lives in this same twelve months, the United Kingdom population will actually rise bv 300,000 in spite of the war. That helps' us to get war losses, terrible as they are, into due proportion in our minds. , , And there is another relevam consideration which may be advanced by way of conso'ation from the national point of view. It is that war has brought emigration to an end for the tune >einf. In the years immediately be.ore the war we were losing emigrants at the rate of hundreds of thousands a year. Again and again I pointed out that emigration had reached danger point. The rate of emigration had been checked some little time before the war began, but even in May, 1914, our lorsby emigration amounted to nearly lo,oot in the month, or at the rate of 180,000 persons a veur, the number including far more males than females. The facts on this head are of such tremendous importance that 1 set them out in some detail:

Whereas in May. 1914. we lost on balance 14,749 British subjects, by November the fourth month of the war, more British subjects were coming home for permanent residence than were going out. It will be seen that in the sis months November, 1914, to April, 1915, we made a large gain by immigration. The table so'ely relates to British sub- '' Thus a most extraordinary conclusion emerges:

AT THE END OF THE FIRST YEAR OF THE AVAR, BECAUSE HOSTILITIES HAVE PI T AN END TO EMIGRATION AND EVEN SET UP A SMALL TIDE OF IMMIGRATION, THE UNITED KINGDOM WILL HAVE A LARGER POPULATION THAN IT PROBABLY WOULDHAAE HAD IF THE WAR HAD NOT OCCURRED. (Of course, counting our soldiers across the English Channel as part of our population.) A« 1 need hardly add, there is nil the difference of life and death between the loss of a man by emigration and his loss killed in action. From the point of view of the economy of the I nited Kingdom, however, the cessation of emigration means gain in population. Such considerations must not blind us to the fact that the war is robbing us of some of our best men. It is only necessary to look at a page of portraits of those who have recently fa lon, to realise that you cannot count losses merely in uni'ts. Part of the very cream of our manhood will have disappeared by the time this w.fr is over. OUT OF EVIL—GOOD! Nevertheless, even here we may find some national, if not individual, consolation. Those who have died will not have fallen in vain. I cherish the confident conviction that as a result of the war the national life will gain such an impetus and stimaation to good works that we shall save alive after the war every year tens of thousands who now needlessly perish. (Even in war Mr. Walter Long is giving us a compulsory Notification of Births Act which will certainlv save thousands, and may ix«ssiblv save tens of thousands of lives pverv year.) The natural and inherent capacity of the race will remain. Science has demonstrated tlyt ,/,7'po child horn to lis can, IF WE CAKL li> HAVE IT SO, be developed into a normal and worthv specimen of its kind. GIVEN THEN THE WILL TO ACT. flic nation can more than restore its losses, and no one need take a pessimistic view on this account. But observe that this is conditional optimism, as all sane optimism must ne<«essarilv be. I have just words, and I repent them— (<l\ K.N THE WILL TO ACT." We are masters choose to exercise our mastery . It is for the rulers of the nation, in their providence or improvidence, to say. Sometimes, I confess, there are moments when I lose the confidence of which 1 have spoken and fear that after the war there will be a phase of national parsimony and blindness to crying needs. If that fear unhappily proves to bo well founded, the end of the war mav see the largest emigration in our annals. It the nation does not organise its return to the pursuits of peaee wo mav eafil.V lns n bv emigration i„ the single'year after the war more rounir men than have fallen in battle. But this need only bo if we will have i„t

so. It is a .splendid consolation in this hour that in spite of our losses of manhood on the Continent we have so large a command of the issues of life and death.

1911. Eniic'ts. Imnrg .ts. Gain or Lose;. May Julie ... 27.420 12.671 Loss 14,749 . 17.977 12,49") ,, 5.482 July ... 18,420 9,720 ,, 8,700 August . 18,960 8,993 ,, 9,967 Sept. ■( let. ... 21,542 5,9.34 ,, 15.588 ... 18,924 9.124 ,, 9.800 Gain 3,492 Nov ... 7.919 11,411 Dec. ... 5,980 10.322 4.342 191"). Loss 206 Jail. ... 5,620 5,414 I'VI). 4,961 5,380 Gain 419 March ... 6,580 6,840 260 April ... 7,768 7.637 Loss 131