WHEN WILL THE WAR END.

Pukekohe & Waiuku Times, Volume 3, Issue 261, 31 December 1914, Page 2 (Supplement)

WHEN WILL THE WAR END.

WHAT THREE EXPERTS HAVE TO SAY. A HOPEFUL OL'TLOOX. FROM ALL BUT ONE OF THIOL A great deal has been written as to the possible duration of the war. but there are two articles in the British Press just to hand that are well worthy of notice in this regard. Professor J. Shield Nicholson, writing to the "Scotsman."' says:— "By following out the consequences of the natural shortage of food supplies, etc.. and the artificial excess of paper money, we see that with the advancement'of Winter the economic pressure will l>e follt more and more severely by the German-;. "The question then arises—ls the ultimate aim and object of the war such as to induce the people to submit to its prolongation? Are the Germans devoted to their Kaiser as the old Highlanders to their chiefs, or the Russians to their Czar? Does the idea of a greater Germany, that shall displace a greater Britain, appeal to the German masses? If Germany is confined within her own borders in the Winter, what will be the prospects of the dream of Empire in tho Spring? SHORTAGE OF FOOD.

"Taking ono consideration with another, the end of the war ought to be in sight with the advent of Spring, at any irate, the prolongation over a (second Wirier is extremely (improbable.

Hero are some of the facts on which Professor Nicholson bases his optimistic and encouraging conclusion : "The general conclusion is that the shortage of 'nccessari "s' nitwit be accompanied in Germany by increasing discomfort or strain, even if, as JJi a besieged fortress, all the supplies were distributed in rations adjusted by militarv authority on an equitable basis.

"'The measures adopted by Germany on the outbreak of war are certain to raise prices. The rea*.«fl- of inconvertible notes issued only need time ro produce that well-known effect. "There is the further difficulty that arises from the system of banking that in Germany has been carded to an extreme. Everybody knows that the German baakers pride themselves on tho assistance given to trade. Even now in.-tun; country w> hear complaints that similar assistance is not given by our banks to all sorts of trade. This German plan may work well enough when trade ig expanding, hut cvo;i in peace it proves to be a dangerous system in the 'reverse case of contraction a:ul depression. THE MONEY TROUBLE.

.."The difference between the German and tho British banking _syi-terns is shown by the rates at which the two Governments have bc-j able to issue their loans, the German rate being very much higher it ban the British. Not only is thi; the case. Imi; the German loan, bring received in depi'.elated paper, adds so much to the real cost. _ "Taking everything into account, it seems likely that th? money borrowed by Germany during the first i-ix nmntb.s of the war will require doiib!:' the rate of intern t paid by the Briti-h Govi rnnicnt. This high* rate ef in'tcresj ill Germany mciiiw .'■■') far a. relative breakdown in public and banking credit. Ai die war progresses th<> liigh.r command of the money power will begin to b'-" alarmed and the lower commands of the money power will begin to feel the pro-sure of diminished resources." Dr. Gilbert Shuer. writing in thf "Clinoii'-Ie" says that the "question of Germany's possible jcxliau.-tion is not a t|Uestion of general financial exhaietioii. but of the exhuuvstion of some particular necessity.

FOOD. "With regard ;o fond, whui the war lirgan if was r< ported, probably with truth, that Germany had provisions. Including this year's harvest, for JS mr.-ths. On the whole the exhaustion of 'the enemy's food supplies H not ikelv to be an important factor. AMMUNITION.

"Tt is likely there will lie sum-.- difueiiltv about chrthing. and prices are likely to' rise seriously, as both Geimany and Austria aire largely dependent on imports for the supply of rawwool. But hero, again, the supplies are likeiv to be sufficient to last a coniddorable ti,ni<\ "The other great (staple of war is ammunition, and the. iron and coal which supply Kn.'pp'.-s mighty arsenal with raw ma.terial. Iron ami foal Germany has in abundance, but there may he. for aught 1 know, i.n my igvorance of il>.. tochuirjiie of the making of explosives. ,soin L > essential which has to hi imported. TRANSPORT. 'M.asily. we conic to the material of transport.. Tito wastage of horses must be tremendous, the home supp'v inadequai". ilit* difficulty of inipo!ting any con.-id r-ible numbers formidable. Furihir. the Russian occupation of Galieia i.s most important in its effect on vlie supply of ]•< t'rol, though, perhaps, substitutes may bo found i;i alcohol and spirit- distilled out of coal. Again, if bicycle; and motor-ears are used as substitutes for eavalrv hoi'-es then* is a passible difficulty ill a shortage of rubber, which chemical .s-i-nce may or may not overcome.

"It is a ■terrible thought, but it may well turn out to be true, that the form exhaustion will take will be exhaustion of the Supply of men." As against these views, we have those of Air. George W. Xasmyth. one. of the most prominent peace advocates of America, who -.ays in "The Independent" :—•

"From the account-; of Germany ' winch I had read in tit;, English pallets, I expected to find everything in confusion, it ho whole economic ham's of the country broken up, a half-starved population on 'the verge of revolution, the railway service suspended, chafe'ra ram. pant in Berlin, and various other interes'ting manifestations of a, general demoralisation. "But I could discover nono of these things. In outward appearance, at least, the Germany which I law was Hi;- same Germany that I had seen at the end of July before the war was declared, or at any time during the last threo years. Instead of a suspended railway service, I travelled in the greatest luxury and comfort on. one of the four express trains that. ai- o running lyetween Cologne and Berlin, a« between other important cities. Tn-

stead of unemployment I found a temporary scarcity of labour, so that women and boy., had to be temporarily employed as ticket-collectors in the street-cars. Instead of scarcity of food, I found the whole population, women, boy scouts, and old men. engaged in bringing in one of the largest crops in the agricultural history of the country. Instead of cholera and disease raging arrangements and the highest medical ability in the service of the State, and a smaller proportion of dbeai e titan lor many yews. Instead of revolution. I found an absolutely united people, resolved to stand together until tho last against a whole world full of enemies, who, as the. Germans believe, are resolved to crush the German people and their civilisation and to dismember the G'-'inian Empire. Instead of hunger and bread riots, I found that the wonderful social organt-ation of the country had been still further perfected through the co-operation of the Government with the Social Democrats and the women's organisations. *" that not a siugli • man. woman, or child of the whole fi0.000.000 wa.s suffering from hunger."