CANADIAN PRODUCTION.

Putaruru Press, Volume VI, Issue 229, 22 March 1928, Page 6

CANADIAN PRODUCTION.

AMERICAN MARKETS.

Decrease in Cheese Production. (Address by J. A. Ruddick, Dairy Commissioner, at the Annual Convention of the Dairymen’s Association ui London, Ont., January 11, 1925.) I recall the forecast, maue some 20 years ago, by a man very prominent in the trade, which was to the effect that in four years ’ time there would be no Canauian cheese to export. Or to go back 0.1 ly to the year 1924 in winch year wo had a surplus of ovei twenty million pounds of butter-fat for export, an.d the unanimous opinion was that this surplus would continue to increase, and might easily reach 50,000,000 pounds in five years. Nothing seemed clearer than that the but-ter-making branch of the industry, or rather the export of creamery butter was on the eve of important developments. It was this feeling which promoted the recent legislation affecting the packing and export of butter. Tjhis optimistic outlook, which seemed to be so fully justified, has been JJlilk to the United States, and a sjecr ( casp, j instead of the expected infalsified thrppgb the export of cream crease in the praiyis provinces. Another factor which was not taken into accoppt is the increase in home consumption due to the growth in population and greater per capita consumption as the result of improved indus- \ trial Conditions. The average annual * consumption of milk and its products per person in Canada is equivalent to f 1,000 pounds of milk, so that for every increase of 33,000 *n the population, the additional consumption is equal ’ to one million pounds of butter. The Bureau of Statistics estimates the increase in population in June xast as compared with June, 1926, at fully 100,000. For some weeks past there has boon a good deal of interest displayed in the daily and financial press over the alleged decrease in dairy production Canada, largely the result, I should say, of a misconception as to the real position. It is a fact that Canada has practically ceased, for the time being at any -rate, + o in exporter of huutoT. This attracts much more attention than the further fact that we are now exporting annually the equivalent of 25,000 000 pounds of butter as cream and milk. Ro far as production is concerned, the preliminary statement shows that we produced practically the same quantity of creamery butter in 1926 b.s we did in 1924 (178,000,000 pounds). Actual figures for the 1927 production in all Oan- | ada are not yet available, but it looks as though the total would be as largo as in 1926. Butter Production in 1927. We are told that there was a decrease in the prairie provinces of at least 40,000,000 pounds in 1927, but the statement that there was “a decreased make of butter and cheese m every province” is not warranted by the only evidence available. There was a decrease in the butter graded m the prairie provinces in 1927 or 103,174 boxes (5,777,764 pounds) as compared with 1926, but there was an increase in the gradings in Eastern Canada of 50,691 boxes (2,838,696 pounds;. The net decrease in the butter graded therefore was 52,483 boxes (2,941,048 pounds). If the gradings, which are only about 25 per cent. *>f the total butter made, bear the same relation to production in both years, it is obvious that there must have been an increase m tlie eastern provinces to make up the difference between this shortage and the known decrease in the prairie provinces of about 10,000,000 pounds. A calculation based on holdings and exports, allowing for the usual home consumption, produces a similar result. Cheese Production in 1927.

When we come to consider the cheese situation the showing is not so good. There was undoubtedly a decrease in 1927. The gradings of cheese, January 1 to December 3, 1927", were 1,472,333 boxes, as compared with 1,845,581 boxes for the same period in 1926, a shortage of 373,248 boxes, or approximately 31,000,000 pounds; but even so, the production of 1927 will be as large as that of 1922. Reason for Decrease in Cheese Production. The cheese factories lost some patrons to the creameries in the spring, 1 and other patrons became cream ano I milk exporters, and it would seem that ] there has been Tather more than the j usual number of Ontario cows sold to the United States during the past sea- j son, but X believe the most important factor was the poor condition of many j mitting the use of the new method, of the cows in the spring. After the cows recovered condition, the production was relatively better. The decrease in the gradings for the month of May, 1927, as compared with May, 1926, was 44 per cent. To the end. of July the decrease was 36 per cent. But for the month of September, 1927, as compared with September, 1926, the decrease in gradings was only 14 per cent.. October 8 per cent., and in November only 2 per cent., bringing the decrease for the season to December 3 down to 20 per cent. The position improved rapidly as the season advanced, and when the final returns of actual production are available there is reason to believe that the showing will be better than it appears to be at present. Total Number of Milch Cows Increased After all the crux of the matter lies in the fact that the Bureau of Statistics estimates the number of milch cows in Canada in June. 1927, at (Continued in Next Column)

3, 594,311, as compared with 3,839,191 in June, 1926, ail increase of 55 The increase in Ontario is put down at 19.000. This is only an estimate, but it is made on a system which has provin the past to be very close to actual count when checked up with the decennial census. Assuming these figures are correct, the statements which e appeared in the press and some of the discussions on the subject would look merely foolish if tliev were not so harmful. Increased Demand from the United States. . The most outstanding development in our corner of the dairy work: during the last few months, and one that does not lack significance for the future of tho industry hereabouts, is the increasing demand for Camu-Knn dairy products in the United States. I have thought, until recently, tlnit tho high prices prevailing in the L meed States would encourage production sufficiently to meet, all demands, hut apparently that is not tho case. It is evident that for some years now the population of the United States now has been increasing faster than the I number of cows. In 1890 there was , one caw for 3.9 persons. In 1910, the ] ratio'was 1 to 4.2; in 1920, 1 to 4.9; I and on January 1, 1927, it was one cow to 5.2 persons. No doubt the yield per cow has increased, but that . is offset by increased per capita con- | sumption. If this shrinkage in the number of cows in proportion to population continues in the United States, the time will come, sooner or later, when nur neighbours will require all our surplus of dairy products. I say "if'' this shrinkage continues; I have no means of knowing whether it will or will not, but the possibilities of the situation are sufficient to give us something to think about. The present position is that while the United States still exports some dairy produce, the imports exceed the exports and the excess of imports is increasing. For the year ended December, 1926, the exports of all dairy products from the United States, when reduced to a fat basis, amounted to approximately 16,000,000 pounds, while i the imports on the same basis and for the same period were 60,000.000

pounds, or a net import of 44,000,000 pounds. For the twelve months ended October, 1927, Canada’s total exports of dairy products, expressed in terms of fat, amounted to 72,794,397 pounds, of which 26,704,617 pounds, or 36 per cent, went to the United States.