The Patea Mail. (Published Wednesday and Saturdays.) WEDNESDAY, APRIL 30, 1879.

Patea Mail, Volume V, Issue 421, 30 April 1879, Page 2

The Patea Mail. (Published Wednesday and Saturdays.) WEDNESDAY, APRIL 30, 1879.

Already speculation is rife as to how Hie chief items of revenue will accord with the estimates given last year, or rather speculation is rife as to how Mr Ballance will account for their not according. It is now certain that, unless some miracle takes place, the next Financial Statement will show that he has fallen into errors as great as could be allowed in estimates dealing with a revenue ten times as large as outs. It will he curious indeed, if one by one, as they have some task to prove them, the present Ministry disappoint the country. Very few ever had confidence in Sir George Gray, but there were many who hoped for groat things from Mr Sheehan and Mr Macandrew. The Public Works Statement was enough to correct the mistake—at least in the Patea County—with regard to the latter gentleman, and recent events have put the colony right with respect to the former. “ But Ballance is a sound man,” said the hopeful public, “he will not mislead or disappoint ns ” But now he is taken on his own estimates—weighed in his own balance—and found wanting. We must therefore now look to Mr Stout, and pray heaven he may have nothing to do, so that we may believe to the end that there is in the Ministry an exception to prove the rule. It appears that the Land Revenue will fall short of the estimates by at least £400,000 — oven the friends of the Government admit this. In other words, the esti-

mate of the Land Revenue was too high by a third ! We would like to see a clear explanation of this slight error. If Mr Ballance can put himself right with the House, we will grant that he is, as the Yankees say, a “smart man.” Did he wish to tide over the session by keeping the country in a good humour with its prospects ? Or did he hope, like Mr Micawber, that something would “ turn up” to verify his predictions ? If neither of these, then he must be so sanguine and untrustworthy a fmancev as to base his estimates on the very highest probabilities. He must have been like the sanguine tradesman who makes no allowance for loss, bad debts, or fluctuations in trade, but expects everything to turn out in the best manner possible. It is true that the estimate for Railway Revenue will perhaps be considerably exceeded. The completion of some of the trunk lines in the South Island has had a beneficial effect, and it is even hoped by some, who we fear are too hopeful, that they will this year pay four per cent, on the cost of. construction, besides covering working expenses. As they have already in three quarters earned about four-fifths of the sum they wore estimated to earn in the year, and have one of the best quarters yet before them, there is some prospect that they will earn £50,000 more than they were estimated to do. This is, of course, very encouraging for the colony, and shows clearly the advantage of a complete system of railways, conned ing chief centres, as compared with the fragmentary lines that exist in this island ; and should be a strong incentive to a wise Government to get our short lines united into one as soon as possible. The excess over the estimate in the earnings of our Railways will considerably reduce the deficiency threatened by the failure of the Land Revenue, but there will still be a very large deficiency for the now

Government to face—a deficiency which the most hopeful cannot place at less than £250,000, and which may exceed £300,000. It will, at first sight, appear that the Colonial Treasurer’s estimates were only wrong by that amount. But really, one error is only counteracted by another, and the best that can be said for him will be, that if he was wrong in one direction in one item, he was wrong in the opposite direction in others. The effect that a deficiency would have on New Zealand securities is worth considering just now. The English investing public having been often bitten, are becoming more careful. They have issued loans as sixty that are now worth only four. Loans to Turkey, Egypt, and numerous South American states, have all taught lessons, for many of them are not worth a tenth part of their issue price. Now, although there is not the slightest danger of New Zealand securities ever coming to that pass, there is a grave danger that lenders may not feel over confident that they will not,, and may tighten their purse strings. For many of those who subscribe to loans have very imperfect knowledge respecting the colony, and will mix up in their minds vague rumors of a Maori war. with the fact of a deficiency in the revenue, and will feci nervous. A deficiency would not be so omenous to them had it been foreseen, but the revenue falling below our own estimates will make many think that our splendid spects are all moonshine. Yet we are at tjiis moment threatened with another loan—a four million loan. On this large sum, one per cent, would amount to £40,000. If then , the deficiency in the revenue, and the bungling of the Treasurer should cause a fall of even one per cent, in our securities, the colony would suffer a very heavy loss. There can be no doubt that a loan will be required during the next financial year, and that a loan will be raised whatever Government may be in officer The land revenue will not keep onr gigantic public works

alive, and to stop them suddenly would not only cause a tremendous shock, but would render a large portion of what .has; been done almost fruitless. The colony can only hope to stave off distress by means of a loan, and this district can only, hope for railway communication with Wellington and Auckland, within reasonable time, by the help of a loan. Against a* loan we have not a word to say. But is not four millions rather a large sum for a colony so deeply indebted, to borrow ? Ten pounds per head of the entire population seems to us a tremendous addition to the public debt. Tiie colony cannot go on borrowing at this rate for ever; it must stop some time or other. The question arises ‘ shall it stop suddenly or gradually?’ If suddenly and under compulsion, the result will be too terrible to contemplate. If gradually, when is the brake to be put on, and the present express speed slackened ? Four million loans indicate full speed yet. We cannot stop suddenly with a four million loan, but must have several smaller ones. We certainly think that a two million loan, followed atinterritJs by smaller ones, would have better prospects, that a smaller proportion of it would bo squandered, and that asking so small a sum would be a seasonable display of moderation.