The Patea Mail. (Published Wednesdays and Saturdays.) SATURDAY, MARCH 15, 1879.

Patea Mail, Volume IV, Issue 408, 15 March 1879, Page 2

The Patea Mail. (Published Wednesdays and Saturdays.) SATURDAY, MARCH 15, 1879.

In our last issue wo stated that the nfinence aiot the intriguing) of Russia .t Calml began after Sheer Ali discovered that, the British attended to their own interests. The Ameer probably thought that he would bo able to show the British that it was their chief interest to secure his friendship. If. they would not hid high enough for his favour, ho would try elsewhere. Russia soon satisfied him with promises, which were probably liberal beyond his hopes, for Russia is rich in promises, if in nothing else. These promises were rendered more acceptable to him by the treatment he received at the hands of the British, who while not posilively seeking to pick a quarrel, were not over anxious to avoid one, as they had determined to make their frontier ‘ scientific.’ When the British occupied Qnettn, and thus took a step nearer to the Bolan pass, Sheer Ali was reported to bo in high dudgeon. It was even rumoured that he was about to invade India with an army of 70,000 men. After a time, however, ho cooled down, and professed to be highly pleased with the prospect of having a strong government near the pass to protect its trade. This was no doubt the effect of the advice of Russia, who was then about entering upon her war with ’Turkey, and did not wish events to move too quickly on the Indian frontier. With Turkey crushed, and her own prestige greatly raised, Russia foresaw fresh influence with the tribes between her possessions in Central Asia and ours in India. Until she had crushed Turkey, then she did not wish England to have the chance of striking a blow at Sheer Ali and of reminding her barbarous neighbours of her power. If Russia could only keep things from coming to a crisis on our Indian frontier till shehad beaten Turkey and worked the blood of her people up to fighting pitch, she had made up her mind what to do. While all eyes were fixed on her doings in Europe, she would concentrate an army on the. frontier of Afghanistan, stir up the neighbouring tribes against the British, and drill them, when she was ready bring about a rupture by exacting hard terms from Turkey, and then make a dash for India, and be there before wo thought she had started. That this or something like this was the Russian programme, there can bo little doubt. Fortunately she had reckoned without her host, and had not provided for a Congress of Berlin being brought about by England. Up to a recent date, many thought it a debatable question, whether Russia had hostile designs on India. Now, however, it is past debate, and has become a matter of history. Five officers of the Russian Mission were left behind to drill the Ameer’s troops : an army of 14,000 Russians was actually on the march for Herat, and was only stopped by the news of the Treaty of Berlin; proposals had been laid before the Russian Government, by high military authority, for transporting the army of the Caucasus, 70,000 strong, bodily down the Caspian, and with the help of Persia marching it into Afghanistan. It is more than probable that had war broken out between England and Russia, the latter would have been able for a time to put a severe strain on the British power in India, especially if at first she had gained an advantage; for the first blood has a groat effect oigthe native mind. It is pretty certaip that the invader would have been rep/iled ultimately, but with no loss beydnd that of the army—which to Russia would be a small affair —for she has not territory within a thousand miles that it would not be a disaster for England to’acquire; while on the other hand, to the British, victory would only have been less expensive than defeat. But it is useless to talk of what might have been. The truth is that Russia has fallen into her own snare, she has been compelled to make a not very advantageous place in Europe, she has seen her threats and swagger in Asia quite disregarded, and has concluded that discretion is the better part of valour, and under the pretence of making a gracious concession to Britain, has abandoned her Afghan ally, forgotten her promises, and eaten up her threats. We admire the firmness of the Imperial Government in sending an ultimatum to the Ameer at such a critical time. Had they allowed the fear of Russia to deter them from action, Russian engineers would soon have fortified the passes, Russian officers would soon have diciplinod the Afghan army, and a “scientific frontier” would have been impossible. Promptness of action, however, seems to have secured an almost bloodless victory. The British will probably make their own terms, taking possession of the passes, setting up whom they will as Ameer, and placing a Resident at Cabnl to watch and to advise him. A great crisis has just been passed through in the history of India, and if the British only take full advantage of the favour of fortune, they need never again fear danger that they have long suspected, and have at last clearly seen. “ Forewarned is forearmed.”