AMERICA’S SHEEP CYCLE.

Otago Witness, Issue 4028, 26 May 1931, Page 12

AMERICA’S SHEEP CYCLE.

The sheep industry has been one of the brightest spots in farming during the post-war period, despite the fact that at the moment it is viewed askance by many farmers. We have faith, however, in the future of sheep farming, and would counsel sheep owners to give considerable care and thought to the proper management of their holdings, and to the marketing of products demanded by consumers. The decline in arable agriculture necessitates some measure of intensive management. Sheep will look after themselves pretty well on an extensive range, but it is an entirely different matter if the size of the paddocks are greatly curtailed, and the growing of special winter feed involved, with the consequent increased attention necessary during lambing time, etc. Disease may become a source of trouble, land may get sheep-sick, through excessive stocking, or internal parasites may be a serious form of loss. Sheep management today is assuredly well worth thought and care. The trend of values, not only in the Dominion, but in all sheep-raising countries, has been of a similar character, up and down, with a fairly lengthy period of non-payable prices. It is .interesting in the foregoing connection to consider the current position of the sheep cycle in America, in view of the fact that sheep owners in New Zealand need all the encouragement possible. The sheep population of the United States is rounding the peak, according to some of the clever young men at Armour’s, Chicago, and is about to swing downwards in its cycle. Due to the increasing human population, the production cycle is not likely to drop to the low level of 1922. Cycles in sheen population are caused by cycles of profits and losses in the industry. There has been a gradual increase in the demand for lamb as an article of diet during the last decade. 'The current low level of sheep and lamb prices- has been caused by low prices of the two, and maybe three, principal joint products, namely, dressed lamb or mutton, fat, and pelts. Unfavourable business activity, low prices of competitive meats, and the low level of all commodity prices, in addition to a 16 per cent, increase in the supply available per capita, have forced dressed -lamb and mutton prices to low levels. Likewise the low level of industrial activity and general price level at a time of increased world production are holding wool values about 30 per cent, below

those of last year. Increased efficiency in sheep production is indicated by (a) more sheep and lambs slaughtered pet unit of population; (b) no apparent decrease in the average weight of sheep and lambs marketed since the industry shifted to a lamb production basis. The lamb crop normally moves to market in an orderly manner, and slaughter is distributed uniformly throughout the year as a result of variations in the seasons of marketing, as well as in the types of sheep and lambs produced in the different sections of the United States.

Because of sectional variation in the types of lambs produced and the season of the year during which they are marketed, the United States may be divided into eight principal sections or regions for an analysis of sheep and lamb production. Californian milk lambs are the first of the new lamb crop to be marketed, and they provide - the first genuine spring lambs of the year. They are followed on the market by the milk lambs from the southern region, which consists of Kentucky, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, Arkansas, and Missouri. Just as the run from those States becomes firmly established, the milk lambs from Washington, Oregon, and Idaho are ready for the market. By July the lamb crop from the southern and northern corn belt regions develops. Thus far in the season the lambs received are suitable for slaughter. During August the run from the western range begins, and continues through November. Since approximately one-half of the range lambs are not finished for slaughter, they are bought by fatteners. Lamb feeders in Colorado, Nebraska, and the corn belt States are the largest purchasers of the range lambs that need additional feeding to give them sufficient finish for slaughter. After being fattened, those lambs are marketed during the late winter and early spring months. Thus the supply of sheep and lambs is fairly uniform throughout the year, even though market receipts are highly seasonal. The fattening and marketing of lambs would thus seem to be not dissimilar to that in vogue in New Zealand. The North Island product from Auckland is first on the market, closely fouowed by offerings of milk lambs from Hawke s Bay, Taranaki, Wellington, Marlborough, Nelson, Canterbury, Otago, and Southland.

During periods when sheep and lamb values are relatively high, producers, it is suggested, expand their operations, and newcomers are attracted to the industry. As a consequence of this tendency towards increased production, the volume of dressed lamb and mutton increases, and prices have to be reduced in order to move this volume into channels of consumption. The lower prices, especially when they are low in relation to the prices of other commodities, reach a level at which sheep, production is no longer' profitable. At that point many producers begin to restrict operations, while others leave the sheep industry to engage in businesses which appear more profitable. Production continues to decrease until sheep and lamb prices again become favourable. As a result of favourable prices newcomers are once more attracted to tile industry, while those al ready in the business increase their activities, and sheep production again swings upward. During the period of low prices for produce one is apt to look to science to help. There is a school of thinkers who see in the application of science to agriculture the only method of restoring its prosperity. Scientific agriculture is, of course, ’of very great value to the man on the land, but we must remember he got along very well without it for generations. The great improvement in stock in olden da vs was owing, in large measure, to the skill of herdsmen and shepherds who had no socalled scientific knowledge. The clever shepherd or herdsman was not in one sense devoid of science, using the term as it is applied to riding or boxing, but they were ignorant of science as the"word is strictly interpreted. They put into practice such simple rules as “ like begets like ” without knowledge of laboratory or scientific workshop, and made good. So, too, with arable farming. Once, however, soils, so to speak, became worked out, the cult of the scientist was acclaimed in the interests of the producer. Few will deny the advantages, general and special, which scientific knowledge has bestowed upon agricul-

ture.- As a result, we have improved knowledge of the soil and manures, improved knowledge of plant and animal life, improved machinery, improved knowledge of the manipulation of products such as milk, wheat, and xvool. It remains for us to take advantage of the xvares set before us, and guard against an overweening estimate of the value of science, while it is incumbent at all times to study the demands of consumers. The production and marketing of goods of a quality desired by consumers must he ever paramount in the minds of New Zealand farmers, who have to sell their products in competition with .others nearer-the Home markets.