EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION

Otago Witness, Issue 4028, 26 May 1931, Page 10

EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION

A SCIENTIFIC IMPOSSIBILITY. DOMINION’S LIABILITY TO SHOCKS. WELLINGTON, May 20. The claims of those who profess to be able to predict earthquakes with exactitude as to place and time were dealt with by Dr C. Coleridge Farr in his presidential address to the annual meeting of the Board of Governors of the New Zealand Institute. Dr Farr said: “The deplorable earthquake which happened in February last m Hawke’s Baj’ focuses attention once more on these matters. It must be real >sed that New Zealand, like Japan, is in a region of the earth’s surface more liable to such disturbances than some others. We cannot help these things, but as scientific men we can point out what has been already learned, indicate the steps which should be taken to minimise the effect, and increase our knowledge. /. would like to say from this presidential chair,” continued Dr Farr, -that at pre.-ent, whatever his pretensions may be, no one can predict these disasters. Localities where earthquakes are not unlikely can be indicated, but neither the exact place nor time can be foretold. A 'er® are s °me who claim to be able i- l°’ whose claim will not stand the light of scientific examination. Such persons very often do not know even the rudiments of scientific inquiry, and are in themselves very often otherwise ignorant. I do not say they are always charlatans, for I have no doubt they have, in their own minds, satisfied themselves that they are right. But' so are those who claim to be King George V or.some other distinguished person. “ One thing that has been learned and has come out with startling clearness, both in Japan and in Hawke’s Bay,” declared Dr Farr, “ is that where an earthquake occurs in thickly-poiulated districts the resulting fire is more, disastrous than the actual shock itself. It these days of town planning steps can be taken, and should be taken, to put in nre brakes so that the fire which is sure to start may find itself checked and un- ,. , spread to other places not already alight. It is important to keep a watchiul eye on the fault movements which are always taking place. It is unfortunate for New Zealand that the main earthquake line in this country seems to run through the North Island, extending, ur £ oes ! f I Om Ha wke’s Bay to the West Coast of the South Island. Since * iL. Murchison earthquake a good many additional seismographs of the latest patterns have been obtained, but so far these nave not yet been set up in all cases.”