THE BREADSTUFFS AND PRODUCE MARKETS.

Otago Witness, Issue 2811, 29 January 1908, Page 21

THE BREADSTUFFS AND PRODUCE MARKETS.

Friday. The last London cable advice available at time of writing reported the wheat market quiet and a shade easier owing to weaker American quotations, less demand, ,and improved reports from the Argentine. This is,, reflected in the fact that the only sale cabled during the weSk is one of an Australian cargo at 40s, or a decline of Is 3d per quarter within the past fortnight. The causes evidently operating to produce this unexpected weakness are set forth in the following report compiled by "Beerbohni," under date London, December \3. In reading this report, however, the further reduction of the London bank rate to 4 per cent, has to be taken into account, as forecasting a speeay return to more normal financial conditions: —

The market h«s been extremely depressed during the past week. Dear money, and 'the lack of reasonable financial aid in America, is evidently still forcing the sale of wheat and otlaer products, regardless of consequences, and may continue to do so for some time, with the result, in the opinion of some American authorities, that imports may actually become necessary before the season is over. Meanwhile, the effects upoa prices have been somewhat disastrous, the more co as new La Plata wheats, for January to March shipment, have lik«wis« been" pressed upon the market at almost daily declining prices. Under these conditions, one cannot consider the market just now from «, norma-l point of view, and it would be futile to refer to what may still be called the strong statistical position in regard to supply and demand during the renmind«r of the season, a position which, we suggest, must sooner or later assert itself.

Last July we gave our usual -estimate of the probable world's wheat nroduction this year, the total being 388,750,000 quarters: later and fuller knowledge shows the probaVe total to be 388,000,000 quarters, being thus the smallest since 1901. It is, we think, very doubtful whether the world's consumption of. wheat of late years has kept pace with the growing needs of consumption, which increases -under the normal conditions ■at the rate of about 1J per cent, per annum. This subject affords an interesting stuuy, and to aid our readers in arriving at some couclusion on the subject we give below the world's wieat production -since 1883, -with the world's visible supply on December 1 in each year. One remarkable result Is that after last year's record crop the world's visible supply is this yeai the smallest on record since 1898: — TTT * 7»_ TTT Uf_

The depression in London is reflected in the Commonwealth markets. In Sydney milling wheat is quoted at 46 7d, or a drop of from 2d to 3d per bushel on the week; tho cabled Melbourne quotation is 4s sd, but a private cable received in town today reports a further recession to 4s 3d. or a drop of from 3d to 4cl on the week ; in Adelaide the curient quotation is 4s 2Ad or a <I':op of Id per bushel.

The following extracts from recent Australian files show the situation as it presented its>elf a week ago : —

During the past week (reports the Sydney Mail under date loth inst.) the wheat market has gained in strength dfcily, and rates have risen almost 3d per bushel,, city buyers offering tip to 4s 9Jd, while business done in the country, -which is the best means of showing the true state of th.c market, has been the equivalent of 4s 9Jd, Darling Island. There have been a number of sales on various accounts in the farming districts this month. The chief transaction, and one in which the whole of the milling and shipping trad© was interested, was the purchase of Messrs Wood Brothers- •well-known crop of Federation wheat, grown at Bruadah, in the Gfrenfell

. district. Tenders were called for 13,000 sacks, and an offer from Temora at 4s 6id ', ] per bushel, on the trucks at Brundah, was ' j accepted. The Brundah wheat bears a high ! reputation, and this year's crop wps a ' . splendid one. City wheat buyers expressed , surprise at the high price given, while others . j reckoned that with the market apparently t still on the rise, a fair profit should be i netted by the purchaser. Though the present . rates are above shipping parity, many j farmers are not disposed to sell. There is a widespr-ead belief that prices will further advance. Only one vessel is loading wheat at Sydney. Agents? for Sydney buyers have in ■the last few days made purchases at 4s 6d and 4s 6|d, on the trucks, country stations. During the past week several country millers in New South Wales (remarks the Sydney Town and Country Journal) having I their mills in localities where the wheat har- i j vest missed wholly, were obliged to send " across country " for supplies. Thus prices were forced up to 4s s|d and 4s Gd a bushel (on rail to tbe grower), or the Sydney equivalent of about 4s 9d. This week -the scarcityis further exemplified by a sale of 13,000 bags of prime Brundah- wheat (Grenfell district) at about the equivalent of 4s 9Jd a. bushel (Sydney), or equal to about 4s 6Jd on rail to* the farmer. Roughly, whe-aS is reckoned at 'four bushels to the bag. ' This Brundah, grain is extra choice and weighty, going about four bushels and ',201b to the bag. T-he wheat is understood, to have beer* bought ',by a firm in the Timora district for the purpose of selling again. The tenacity of the New South "Wales wheat-growers in holding, and the unfavourable crop reports from the Argentine, are counteT-acting in Sydney the effect j of the news of a good downfall over the wheat areas in India. The. local market (says the Australasian of 18th inst.), after last week's excitement, has ' become somewhat quieter, and although fiill 1 prices are still being paid in some of the j country districts, the town market is slightly j lower, as supplies are now offering more , freely. Present quotations are above tha | parity of London. Taking the sale of a • South Australian cargo at 41s l£d per 480lb. j cost, freight, and insurance, the parity would j be between 4s 4d and 4s 4£d per bushel, free on board, varying according i.o the rate of freight for sailer cargoes. If ft cheap rate of freight for parcels per steamer- is taken as the basis for calculation, a somewhat better j return would be obtained; but this depends on opportunities of cheap freight being available. Business has been done at from 4s 7d down to 4s 6d, a large sale being made at 4s 6d in cancellation of an earlier contract. The market closes- firmer at 4s 6Jd to 4s 62d. The quantity of new wheat offering as yet is small, and transactions have .consequently been limited, therefore the market can scarcely be said to have opened fox* the season. There are rumours of some extensive contracts having been made for forward delivery, but as the wheat has not yet been harvested these contracts only ■ represent one man who believes that j wheat will be easier; b&ckma: his opinion | against another who believes that wheat wili j go higher; in no way does^t affect the! trend of the market. I In Timaru one or two small lines of newwheat have been sold at 4s 3d on trucks, , and a line of 1500 sacks of Tuscan has , found a buyer at 4s 5d on trucks. Chri6tohurch advices state that a fair amount ■ of new wheat is offering on that market, j and millers have taken it up readily .at j prices ranging from 4s 3d to 4« 4d on « j trucks. It is said that several fairly large i ■ speculators are also waiting a chance to ' operate. The sale is reported of a small i line of old wheat at 4s 7£d f.o.b. for Auckland. In attempting a forecast of the wheat market at the commencement of the season, one or two outstanding facts must be taken into account. The Government returns show t a decrease in acreage of over 18,000 acres, J < but should the weather hold good through- i out the harvest there is a prospect of a j heavier yield, which should more than com- . ] pensate for the decreased acreage. During ' a the season just closed } despite an average _ < carry over, and considerable importatiofis ' j of Australian wheat and flour, there has t been only just sufficient wheat for require- j ments, and the new season commences with. j t practically baic boards. Evidently in the i coming season, under the most 'favourable i auspices, there will be little if any surplus t over requirements, while conditions in Aus- c I tralia point to the elimination of any serious ( J competition from that quarter. It is a, c question, therefore, whether the New Zea- ' s land market will be regulated by London j parity ; indeed the probability points to , 5 prices taking an independent course. The I majority of the millers will have to be _ in the market early, and 6o soon a$ any j quanHtv of wheat is offering all lines pro- j curable at un to 4s 6d on trucks arc likely ' f 1o be readily taken up. From that out, S should the expected upward movement in c Ijondon eventuate, a gradually improving * market mny be anticipated, but. .how high Cc prices wjII go it is too early yet to pre- ' diet. ' ! a Fowl feed continues exceedingly scarce, ! .' and as high as 5s f.o.b. has been paid by • r buyers during- the week, or more money • " than is procurable fcr milling -wheat— in- - a de^d, some holders of milling- wheat are working it off in small lots as fowl feed, C this business being more profitable. j t There is a fair demand for flour, but ' ° bakers are not .eager buyers, and a number a of the looal mills are still closed down for t the annual overhaul. The New Zealand * flourmillerg? quotation is < unchanged t namely ; — Sacks £11 sa, 100'e £11 15s, sQ's -t

operate.

line of old wheat at 4s 7fr land.

leerease ni acreage o'

£12, 25's £12 ss. The shipping price is ; £11 per ton, and the Invercargill price , £11 10s. j The local market is quite bare of pollard, and stocks of bran are in exceedingly small ■ compass. Quotations, are unchanged— viz., - Bran £4 15s locally, and £4- 10s for shipment, and pollard £5 10s both for local orders and for ehipment. The oat market is in a disorganised condition, and opinions as to the future of this cereal vary coneiderably. Owing to tne early harvest some holders of old feed oats have been unloading at 2s 4^d f.o.b s.i., but on the other hand other holder* are stipulating for 2s 5d to 2s 6d. New I Canterbury oats, rather thin and shelly I are offering at up to 2s s£d f.0.b., e.i. For ; immediate delivery, feed oats are a shade ; firmer, the quantity offering locally being : small, and it is possible that thie firmness j may continue unfil the Southland crop is i on the market. I Latest Australian advices state that reports of the Tasmanian oat crop are notl *?°. |^ vourJlble - the yield beino- estimated! at 1,500,000 bushels, against nearly 2,000,000 bushels last season. The price of oatmeal' remains at £14 10s per ton. r . There is a brjsk demand for', barley, and nitjn prices/ are -being: paid' for the : little oftenng. A shortage in this cereal is 'anticipated. • _ Local buyers decline to pay the prices aslred for rvegrass, and are fixing their limit at 2s in expectation of a very heavy yield. The market ie well supplied with potatoes, and prices are a shade easier. . Oamarue are offering at from 5s to 5s -6d/ and Peninsulas at from fo to 7s. The anticipations .indulged in by Wellington and Auckland merchants of a boom in the butter market, and hieh prices at the end of the season, find no response amongst local buyers. Xt is nointed out that tho present demand from London is for butter for immediate shipment only, and that as factories have for the most part made arrangements for the disposal of their outputs un to the end oi March very little butter is available in addition. Although prices in London, owing to the d«oi'ease in Australian fxnorts ara keenine up -longer than usual, it is only reasonable to expect a decline towards the end of February, if not. earlier, when the London demand will tail off. Jn the meantime tho local market is olentifullv supplied! with, dairy butter, and agent 6do not sonsider the position sufficiently attractive to shipHome milled butter on consignment. Local' cmolations are unchanged, as ■ follow : — Dairy pats and dairy bulk. 6id to Sd-: separator nats, 7d to J3d : separator bulk. 9d to 9^d: milled — first grade Bid. second erade 8i; first erade factory, printe. 113 d! booked, ll^d cash ; bulk, lld'cash. Ch«ese : Factory mediums, 6d to 61d • Akaroa loaf. s|d to 6d ; mediums. sid to 6d. The market for eges is firm at Is Id per dozen. ~Quot»Hons for poultry are as follow: — Hene. 2s to 2s 9d p<»r pair : roosters, 4s to ss; ffcslings. 5s to 6s : ducklinss, 5« 6d to 6s : ducks. 4e to 4s 3d ; turkeys. hens sd, gobblers 8d to 9d. Pigs continue exceedingly warce. Bacon - pigs are quoted at 6d to.oj:. Bacon is scarce at &d, and hams of good quality are unprocurable. The market is fully supplied with chaff.

1907 1906 1905 1904 1903 1902 1001 1900 1699 1898 1897 189G 1895 1694 1893 *. Wheat Crop. Qrs. , 388,000,000 441,500,000 422,615.000 . 401,800,000 411,500,000 399,400,000 367,500,000 . 342,350.000 360,000,000 365,000,000 205,000,000 . 312,000,000 , 325,000,000 330,000,000 320,000,000 Visible Supply. Qre. 15,750,000 19,330,000 17,645,000 18,685,000 16,650,000 19,045,000 20,750.000 20,850,000 20.250.000 13,600,000 15 500,000 19,300,000 22.500,000 25,100,000 25,000,000